New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #249
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 #222
Pace 72.2 #95
Improvement -3.5 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #134 C B+ D B D+
Defense #337 C D F F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.08 #273 -2.2 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #94 0.76 #165 +1.7 #89
Three Pointers 38% #248 1.08 #106 -0.5 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #204 -1.0 #203
Freethrows 19.2 #99 76% #59 14.6 #64
Second Chance 36.6% #35 1.08 #140 0.40 #56
Turnovers 18.4% #297
Total Offense +1.2 #134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #190 1.06 #64 +1.8 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #217 0.90 #346 -0.8 #250
Three Pointers 42% #147 1.02 #188 -0.6 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.4 #167
Freethrows 21.6 #342 75% #268 16.1 #344
Second Chance 36.0% #337 1.04 #174 0.37 #300
Turnovers 13.5% #332
Total Defense -5.9 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #270 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #186 -1.1% #159
Possession Length 17.5 #195 16.3 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #233 0.19 #233
Improvement +1.1 #117 -4.5 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 2.3% 3.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 39.3% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.4% 5.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @TCU W 78 - 74 5% +12  1 - 0 +18 +9 A- A+ F +10 A+ D+ D-
 Mon, Nov 10 42 @LSU L 58 - 93 4% -17  1 - 1 -20 -11 F C A- -8 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 173 @Tulane W 85 - 63 27% +11  2 - 1 +24 +19 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 279 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 46% -6  2 - 2 -15 +3 C- B F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 150 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 21% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 D B+ F -5 B- F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 68 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 8% +4  2 - 4 +8 +4 C C+ F +5 A F A
 Wed, Nov 26 20 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -12 -14 F C+ F +3 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 88 @Memphis L 70 - 86 10% -16  2 - 6 -6 +5 C+ F B -12 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 297 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 72% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +2 C- D- A- -22 D+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 192 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 51% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -4 +11 A+ D F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 4 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -17 -1 D- A+ F -18 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 219 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 34% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +16 +13 C A+ B+ +2 D+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 31 175 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 27% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -12 +2 D+ C F -14 B F F
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 44% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -3 F D+ C -7 A+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 324 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 78% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -3 +6 D F A+ -9 C B F
 Sat, Jan 10 222 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 57% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -19 +9 C A+ D- -30 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 272 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 44% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 -0 +8 D- A+ F -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 109 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 29% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -4 +11 A A+ D -15 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 197 Lamar W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Jan 24 90 @McNeese St. L 72 - 86 10%
 Mon, Jan 26 222 @Nicholls St. L 79 - 83 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 275 Northwestern St. W 80 - 75 67%
 Mon, Feb 2 324 @East Texas A&M W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79 - 77 55%
 Mon, Feb 9 175 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @Houston Christian W 77 - 76 51%
 Mon, Feb 16 192 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 80 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Lamar L 71 - 76 31%
 Mon, Feb 23 109 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 90 McNeese St. L 75 - 83 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 272 SE Louisiana W 78 - 73 66%
Totals 11 - 20 9 - 13 -5 +1 C B+ D -6 C D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 1.1 4.5 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.9 6.1 1.4 0.1 14.2 6th
7th 0.8 5.4 8.4 2.4 0.1 17.0 7th
8th 0.4 5.4 9.4 3.6 0.2 19.0 8th
9th 0.5 3.9 7.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.4 0.2 9.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.7 10.4 16.5 19.7 19.4 14.0 8.1 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0% 0.0
15-7 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3
14-8 1.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-9 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 4.2
12-10 8.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 8.0
11-11 14.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.9
10-12 19.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.3
9-13 19.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.6
8-14 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
7-15 10.4% 10.4
6-16 4.7% 4.7
5-17 1.3% 1.3
4-18 0.2% 0.2
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%