New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 214
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 198
Pace 72.8 69
Improvement +0.3 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 158 C- B- D B+ C-
Defense D+ 268 C+ D+ D+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 D+ 54% 273 -0.6 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 55 C 39% 146 +2.1 69
Three Pointers 34% 313 C 34% 163 -3.2 292
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 260 C- -1.1 214
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 225
Second Chance B 34.5% 72 C+ 1.05 144 B- 0.36 81
Turnovers D 19.0% 310
Freethrows B+ 0.36 27 B- 75% 95 B+ 0.27 25
Total Offense C +0.1 158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 B- 54% 82 -1.0 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 268 F+ 44% 349 +0.1 199
Three Pointers 43% 116 C+ 33% 115 +0.1 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 245 C+ -1.2 132
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 150
Second Chance D- 35.1% 330 C 1.02 164 D+ 0.36 297
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 281
Freethrows D 0.36 323 C- 74% 253 D- 0.26 322
Total Defense D+ -3.0 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 161 16.2 25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 240 0.19 246
Improvement -1.5 #269 +1.9 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 4% 8% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 89% 100% 83%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 32 - 44 - 13
Quad 410 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @TCU W 78 - 74 6% +12  89% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B A+ F A+ +12 A+ D D
 Mon, Nov 10 56 @LSU L 58 - 93 8% -17  0% 1 - 1 F -22 F -15 F C A- D -6 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 172 @Tulane W 85 - 63 31% +11  99% 2 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +17 A+ A+ F+ A +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 289 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 55% -6  12% 2 - 2 F+ -15 C- -2 C- B- F F -13 D- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 132 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 23% -4  11% 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -2 D+ B- F+ C- -2 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 75 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 11% +4  68% 2 - 4 B- +8 C +2 C- B F B+ +6 A F B
 Wed, Nov 26 13 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  6% 2 - 5 D -10 F -16 F C+ F B+ +6 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 93 @Memphis L 70 - 86 15% -16  0% 2 - 6 D+ -8 C+ +2 C D- B F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 77% -4  16% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 C -0 C- D A- F -20 D F F
 Mon, Dec 8 274 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 74% +8  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 D -9 C+ +3 A+ D F F -12 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  0% 3 - 8 F+ -17 D -4 D A+ F F -13 F A D
 Mon, Dec 29 153 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 28% +8  88% 4 - 8 2 - 1 A +19 A +12 C A+ B+ A- +7 D+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 36% -6  17% 4 - 9 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -2 D- C+ D- F -12 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 277 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 53% +5  81% 4 - 10 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F+ D+ C+ D -5 A F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 303 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 79% +8  99% 5 - 10 3 - 3 C -1 B- +4 D+ F A D -6 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 264 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 71% -7  4% 5 - 11 3 - 4 F -22 B +6 C+ A D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 279 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 54% +1  51% 6 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 B +6 D- A+ F+ D- -7 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 101 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 32% -1  33% 6 - 12 4 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A- A C- F -11 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 211 Lamar W 89 - 76 61% +4  68% 7 - 12 5 - 5 B- +7 B+ +9 A C D+ C- -2 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 84 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 12% -9  2% 7 - 13 5 - 6 D -9 D- -7 C+ D+ F C- -2 B+ D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 264 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 49% +9  86% 8 - 13 6 - 6 A- +15 C- -1 F+ A F+ A+ +15 A B- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 277 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 75% +4  73% 9 - 13 7 - 6 C +1 D+ -2 D- A D B +4 C- A- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 303 @East Texas A&M W 94 - 85 59% +11  99% 10 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ F C+ D- -7 D+ F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 153 UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 95 49% -16  1% 10 - 14 8 - 7 F -22 D -5 D A D+ F -16 D F B-
 Mon, Feb 9 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84 - 78 OT 59% -1  41% 11 - 14 9 - 7 C +1 D- -8 D D+ F A- +7 B+ C A
 Sat, Feb 14 295 @Houston Christian L 60 - 61 56% -1  36% 11 - 15 9 - 8 D+ -6 F -10 F C B- B +5 B- F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 16 274 @Incarnate Word W 78 - 64 53% +8  96% 12 - 15 10 - 8 B +10 B- +5 F B+ A B+ +6 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Lamar L 73 - 76 39%
 Mon, Feb 23 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 McNeese St. L 73 - 80 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 279 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 75%
Totals 14 - 17 12 - 10 -3 C +0 C C- C- D+ -3 C B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C C- 40% 50% 34% C- C- B C+ B- D B+ B- B+ D+ B- F+ C+ C+ 39% 18% 43% D+ C+ D- C D+ D+ D C- D-
1.09 54% 39% 34% -1 -1 0.99 34% 1.0 .36 19% .36 75% .27 1.13 54% 44% 33% -1 0 1.00 35% 1.0 .36 15% .36 74% .27
Nov
3		 TCU B B- D+ A+ A- 40% 30% 30% D+ B A+ C+ A+ F A A+ A+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% D A+ B F D D D- C- D-
1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27 0.98 56% 29% 12% -16 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29
Nov
10		 LSU F F F F F 35% 23% 42% C F D A- C A- D+ B C- D C A+ F B- 46% 11% 44% F+ C+ F A+ B- F F+ C+ D-
0.80 40% 8% 25% -19 -1 0.63 24% 1.1 .26 12% .27 71% .19 1.28 62% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.09 43% 0.9 .38 10% .43 75% .32
Nov
14		 Tulane A+ F A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 55% C- A+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A+ A F+ F A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- F F A- F
1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39 0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40
Nov
18		 Pepperdine C- F A A D 51% 4% 45% A- C- B+ D B- F A+ C- A+ F C- F D+ D- 40% 24% 36% C D- D+ A- B- F F F F
1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30 1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37
Nov
21		 Fresno St. C- B+ F F D 43% 16% 41% B D+ B- C+ B- F+ A+ F A+ C- C- B A+ A- 44% 6% 50% F B C+ F F B- F D+ F
0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34 1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35
Nov
24		 Mississippi St. C F C- B C+ 25% 39% 36% F+ C- A D- B F C+ A+ A B+ A+ F A A 30% 22% 48% C+ A D+ F F B F A+ D
1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26 1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24
Nov
26		 Texas Tech F C+ F F F 40% 33% 27% B- F F+ A+ C+ F D+ D- D B+ A A+ C- A+ 38% 25% 37% C A+ F F+ F B F A+ F+
0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15 1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26
Dec
3		 Memphis C+ B F C C 37% 21% 42% C+ C B F D- B B- C B- F+ C- F F F 38% 19% 43% D+ F F+ A+ A+ C- B+ C+ B+
1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26 1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Houston Christian C D+ F A D+ 44% 12% 44% B- C- D D+ D A- A- F B- F C+ F+ D+ D+ 46% 19% 35% D D F F F F F F F
1.15 59% 17% 41% +3 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23 1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38
Dec
8		 Incarnate Word C+ B+ A A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% D+ A+ B F D F A+ A A+ F A+ F F+ F 22% 28% 50% A F+ D F F C F C- F
1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41 1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Houston D F B+ D C- 20% 45% 35% F D B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 25% 40% 36% A- F B A A D F C F
0.84 25% 39% 29% -9 -4 0.75 31% 1.6 .50 31% .49 83% .41 1.46 77% 52% 47% +18 -3 1.30 34% 0.8 .28 9% .50 77% .39
Dec
29		 UT Rio Grande Valley A F+ A+ C+ C- 44% 19% 37% B C B- A+ A+ B+ C A+ A A- D- A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% B D+ D- A+ A+ A F A+ C-
1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30 0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19
Dec
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- F+ B- D+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D- B D+ C+ D- A+ F A- F A+ B- C A 60% 23% 17% D- B+ F F+ F F+ F+ F F
1.00 50% 40% 31% -4 -2 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 23% .55 66% .36 1.21 41% 33% 33% -12 +1 0.81 50% 1.1 .56 13% .42 76% .32
Jan
3		 Northwestern St. D A+ B+ F D- 23% 33% 44% F F+ B- F D+ C+ F A+ D- D A+ B+ B- A+ 44% 20% 36% F A F F F D+ F F+ F
1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20 1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
5		 East Texas A&M B- D A+ D- D+ 40% 15% 44% C- D+ A+ F F A A+ B A+ D A+ D F C+ 41% 9% 50% F+ C D+ A+ B+ F+ D- F F
1.17 52% 63% 30% -1 +1 1.02 44% 0.4 .20 13% .48 73% .36 1.03 27% 40% 44% -4 +2 0.96 26% 0.5 .14 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
10		 Nicholls St. B C C- A+ B- 40% 20% 40% C- C+ A+ F A D- A+ A+ A+ F D+ D F F 35% 10% 56% D F F D F F A- F B-
1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44 1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16
Jan
12		 SE Louisiana B B F D D- 38% 27% 35% D+ D- A- A+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D- B+ B A+ B+ 27% 36% 38% A A- F D+ F F F C+ F
1.14 64% 20% 31% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.5 .60 23% .73 79% .58 1.09 50% 31% 24% -10 -3 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 13% .64 67% .43
Jan
17		 Stephen F. Austin B+ C A+ C+ A+ 30% 37% 33% F A- B A A C- F F F F C- F F F 38% 28% 34% C- F+ F+ A+ A- F F D F
1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11 1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33
Jan
19		 Lamar B+ A A+ F A 61% 27% 12% B- A A+ F C D+ A+ B A+ C- A- F D+ D+ 30% 30% 41% D+ D+ F A+ B+ C- D+ D D
1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51 1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20
Jan
24		 McNeese St. D- D B- C C- 49% 13% 38% A- C+ F+ B+ D+ F A+ D+ A+ C- C+ A+ A+ A 63% 8% 29% F B+ F A D+ C+ F F F
0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39 1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Nicholls St. C- D- F B+ F 50% 23% 27% C F+ B+ B+ A F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C A 32% 11% 57% D+ A B D+ B- B+ B A+ A-
1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38 0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14
Jan
31		 Northwestern St. D+ F B C+ D- 43% 25% 32% D+ D- B A A D A+ B- A+ B B+ F A- C 40% 26% 34% D+ C- C+ A+ A- C- A+ D A+
1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37 0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12
Feb
2		 East Texas A&M A- B- C- A+ A+ 51% 27% 22% D A+ D+ F F C+ A+ A A+ D- B+ F B- D+ 39% 16% 45% C- D+ A- F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 62% 36% 73% +14 0 1.29 29% 0.1 .03 17% .55 78% .43 1.09 50% 63% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.7 .29 14% .55 76% .42
Feb
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley D A- D+ F D+ 40% 31% 29% D D F+ A+ A D+ A+ B+ A+ F C C+ F+ D 35% 13% 52% D+ D F F F B- F F F
1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36 1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40
Feb
9		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D- D+ C- F D 56% 24% 20% C+ D D C D+ F A+ B- A+ A- F+ A+ A+ A- 47% 19% 34% D+ B+ C- C+ C A F D F
0.96 56% 36% 22% -5 +1 0.93 23% 1.0 .23 25% .86 75% .65 0.90 64% 10% 17% -11 +1 0.81 30% 0.9 .28 22% .54 70% .38
Feb
14		 Houston Christian F D- C- F F 54% 29% 17% D F B- D+ C B- B- F D B C- F A+ B- 33% 26% 41% B+ B- C+ F F+ B- C D+ C-
0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17 0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20
Feb
16		 Incarnate Word B- F A F F 35% 26% 39% F F B- B+ B+ A A+ D+ A+ B+ B- C B- B 38% 17% 46% D- C+ D A+ B+ B- F C+ F
1.21 44% 50% 28% -5 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42 0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 5.4 1.2 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.2 19.4 6.7 0.2 31.5 4th
5th 1.7 23.4 13.9 0.4 39.4 5th
6th 7.2 10.7 0.9 18.7 6th
7th 1.7 1.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 10.7 39.3 36.3 12.4 1.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 1.4% 5.8% 5.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
13-9 12.4% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8 0.1 0.2 12.1
12-10 36.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.6 0.3 35.3
11-11 39.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.1 0.4 38.8
10-12 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 5.4%