New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #242
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #218
Pace 72.2 #89
Improvement -2.1 #280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 C B- D B C-
Defense #329 C D+ D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.10 #249 -0.8 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #97 0.78 #139 +1.8 #84
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.06 #119 -1.7 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #189 -0.6 #189
Freethrows 0.34 #73 76% #60 0.26 #46
Second Chance 35.8% #45 1.06 #149 0.38 #63
Turnovers 18.5% #304
Total Offense +1.1 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.07 #66 +1.1 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #248 0.89 #340 -0.3 #203
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.01 #177 -0.4 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.4 #170
Freethrows 0.35 #317 73% #221 0.26 #325
Second Chance 36.2% #343 1.00 #108 0.36 #282
Turnovers 13.6% #331
Total Defense -5.5 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #250 0.8% #240
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #179 -1.5% #158
Possession Length 17.3 #164 16.4 #39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #206 0.18 #223
Improvement +0.9 #135 -3.0 #331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 2.9% 5.9% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 36.9% 54.7% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 43 @TCU W 78 - 74 5% +12  1 - 0 +19 +9 B+ A+ F +9 A+ D+ D
 Mon, Nov 10 41 @LSU L 58 - 93 4% -17  1 - 1 -20 -11 F C B+ -8 C+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 173 @Tulane W 85 - 63 27% +11  2 - 1 +24 +19 A+ A+ D- +7 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 281 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 48% -6  2 - 2 -15 +3 C- B- F -17 F+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 153 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 22% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- B- F -5 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 24 86 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 10% +4  2 - 4 +7 +3 C C+ F +4 B+ F+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 14 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -11 -15 F C+ F +4 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 102 @Memphis L 70 - 86 13% -16  2 - 6 -8 +5 C+ D- B- -13 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 307 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 75% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -21 +0 D+ D B+ -21 C- F F
 Mon, Dec 8 230 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 60% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -6 +9 A+ D F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 4 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -18 -2 D A+ F -17 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 29 189 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 30% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +17 +15 C A+ B+ +2 D+ B+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 30% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +2 D+ C D- -15 B- F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 46% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -4 F D+ C -5 A+ F D
 Mon, Jan 5 303 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 75% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -1 +6 C- F A -8 C+ B F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 61% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -20 +10 C A+ D -31 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 266 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 44% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 +0 +9 D A+ F+ -9 A- F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 104 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 28% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -3 +10 A- A- D+ -14 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 218 Lamar W 89 - 76 57% +4  7 - 12 5 - 5 +7 +12 A- C C -6 D+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 83 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 9% -9  7 - 13 5 - 6 -9 -5 C+ D F -4 B+ C B-
 Tue, Jan 27 238 @Nicholls St. L 79 - 82 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 276 Northwestern St. W 81 - 76 69%
 Mon, Feb 2 303 @East Texas A&M W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 76 52%
 Mon, Feb 9 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 307 @Houston Christian W 77 - 76 54%
 Mon, Feb 16 230 @Incarnate Word L 75 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 218 @Lamar L 73 - 77 36%
 Mon, Feb 23 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 83 McNeese St. L 74 - 82 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 266 SE Louisiana W 76 - 72 67%
Totals 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4 +1 C B- D -6 C D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.3 7.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 5.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 8.4 2.9 0.3 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 9.7 5.6 0.6 18.1 6th
7th 0.9 8.3 8.1 1.1 0.0 18.4 7th
8th 0.4 4.9 7.7 1.3 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 5.2 1.6 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.5 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.7 6.0 12.7 20.0 22.4 18.7 11.0 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0% 0.0
15-7 0.4% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-8 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
13-9 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
12-10 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
11-11 18.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.5
10-12 22.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.3
9-13 20.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.9
8-14 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
7-15 6.0% 6.0
6-16 1.7% 1.7
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%