New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #195
Pace 72.2 #90
Improvement +0.8 #150

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #134 C B- D B C-
Defense #297 C D+ D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.09 #260 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.78 #142 +1.9 #79
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.07 #101 -2.0 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.6 #191
Freethrows 0.35 #52 76% #73 0.26 #40
Second Chance 35.2% #60 1.02 #176 0.36 #80
Turnovers 19.2% #306
Total Offense +1.1 #134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.05 #57 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #253 0.90 #350 -0.4 #222
Three Pointers 42% #147 1.00 #153 -0.2 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.7 #153
Freethrows 0.35 #311 73% #234 0.26 #312
Second Chance 34.8% #322 1.01 #156 0.35 #275
Turnovers 14.3% #328
Total Defense -4.1 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #254 0.8% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #175 -2.2% #136
Possession Length 17.2 #169 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #224 0.19 #234
Improvement +1.1 #124 -0.3 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 13.8% 21.3% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 90.5% 66.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 45 - 12
Quad 49 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @TCU W 78 - 74 7% +12  1 - 0 +17 +8 B A+ F+ +9 A+ D- D
 Mon, Nov 10 49 @LSU L 58 - 93 6% -17  1 - 1 -21 -12 F C B+ -8 C+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 171 @Tulane W 85 - 63 31% +11  2 - 1 +24 +18 A+ A D- +7 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 284 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 54% -6  2 - 2 -15 +2 C B- F -17 D- C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 147 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 25% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- B- D- -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 24 73 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 10% +4  2 - 4 +8 +4 C B- F +4 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 19 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 3% -12  2 - 5 -12 -15 F C+ F +3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 96 @Memphis L 70 - 86 14% -16  2 - 6 -8 +5 C D B -12 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 304 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 78% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +0 D+ D A- -21 C- F F
 Mon, Dec 8 247 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 68% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -7 +8 A+ D F -14 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 6 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -17 -2 D- A+ F -16 F A F+
 Mon, Dec 29 178 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 32% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +18 +14 C A+ A- +3 D+ A A
 Wed, Dec 31 206 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 38% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -14 +1 D C D -15 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 51% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -3 F D C+ -7 A+ F D
 Mon, Jan 5 313 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 81% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -2 +6 D+ F A+ -8 C A- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 249 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 68% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -21 +10 B- A+ D+ -33 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 280 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 53% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 -1 +8 D- A+ D- -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 104 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 33% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -3 +11 A A- C- -14 F+ A F
 Mon, Jan 19 190 Lamar W 89 - 76 58% +4  7 - 12 5 - 5 +8 +12 A+ C- C -5 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 87 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 13% -9  7 - 13 5 - 6 -10 -5 C D+ F -5 B C- C
 Tue, Jan 27 249 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 46% +9  8 - 13 6 - 6 +16 +4 F+ A+ D +11 A- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 275 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 73% +4  9 - 13 7 - 6 +2 -0 F+ A D+ +2 C A C-
 Mon, Feb 2 313 @East Texas A&M W 94 - 85 62% +11  10 - 13 8 - 6 +3 +11 A+ F C+ -9 C- D F+
 Sat, Feb 7 178 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78 - 77 54%
 Mon, Feb 9 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 304 @Houston Christian W 78 - 76 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 247 @Incarnate Word L 78 - 79 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @Lamar L 73 - 77 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 81 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 87 McNeese St. L 74 - 80 27%
 Mon, Mar 2 280 SE Louisiana W 77 - 70 73%
Totals 14 - 17 12 - 10 -3 +1 C B- D -4 C D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 10.0 7.4 1.9 0.1 22.7 3rd
4th 1.9 11.5 7.3 0.8 0.0 21.5 4th
5th 0.7 9.0 9.2 0.9 19.8 5th
6th 0.2 5.5 10.6 2.2 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 7.8 2.7 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.4 0.2 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 4.8 15.1 24.3 26.2 18.2 8.3 2.1 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.2% 0.2
15-7 2.1% 5.1% 5.1% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-8 8.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.9
13-9 18.2% 3.9% 3.9% 14.8 0.2 0.6 17.5
12-10 26.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.3 0.2 25.6
11-11 24.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 24.1
10-12 15.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.0
9-13 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
8-14 0.9% 0.9
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%