New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#337
Expected Predictive Rating-17.6#352
Pace78.3#22
Improvement-0.3#275

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#319
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#344
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-0.1#214

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#336
First Shot-6.8#345
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks-5.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#191
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement-0.2#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 3.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 12.1% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.2% 42.3% 25.2%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 12.7% 23.2%
First Four1.2% 2.7% 1.0%
First Round0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 12.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 48 - 118 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 55   @ Butler L 53-89 2%     0 - 1 -23.7 -18.5 -1.0
  Nov 17, 2022 62   @ LSU L 62-91 3%     0 - 2 -17.7 -6.1 -10.4
  Nov 23, 2022 270   The Citadel L 65-72 37%     0 - 3 -15.5 -18.4 +3.5
  Nov 24, 2022 359   IUPUI W 87-84 77%     1 - 3 -16.9 +1.3 -18.3
  Nov 25, 2022 309   Denver L 76-77 48%     1 - 4 -12.6 -7.3 -5.2
  Dec 03, 2022 122   Louisiana L 70-82 12%    
  Dec 10, 2022 110   @ Portland L 73-92 4%    
  Dec 13, 2022 61   @ Boise St. L 57-80 1%    
  Dec 21, 2022 3   @ Purdue L 58-93 0.1%   
  Dec 30, 2022 340   @ Houston Christian L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 05, 2023 330   Lamar W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 340   Houston Christian W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 12, 2023 327   @ Incarnate Word L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 250   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-84 17%    
  Jan 19, 2023 261   Texas A&M - Commerce L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 21, 2023 282   Northwestern St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 26, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 77-86 20%    
  Jan 28, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 80-83 38%    
  Feb 02, 2023 250   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 04, 2023 327   Incarnate Word W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 09, 2023 249   @ Nicholls St. L 76-87 17%    
  Feb 11, 2023 354   McNeese St. W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 16, 2023 261   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 18, 2023 282   @ Northwestern St. L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 23, 2023 249   Nicholls St. L 79-84 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 330   @ Lamar L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 01, 2023 354   @ McNeese St. L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.6 6.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.1 5.5 2.7 0.3 16.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.4 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.7 9.6 12.2 13.7 13.5 11.6 9.9 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 88.7% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 65.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-4 0.8% 18.6% 18.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
13-5 1.5% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.2 1.4
12-6 2.7% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.5
11-7 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 4.5
10-8 7.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 7.0
9-9 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.8
8-10 11.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 9.6% 9.6
3-15 6.7% 6.7
2-16 3.8% 3.8
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%