New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #248
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #217
Pace 72.2 #94
Improvement -4.2 #345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 C- B+ D A- C-
Defense #337 C D- D- F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.07 #284 -2.0 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #103 0.73 #206 +1.2 #114
Three Pointers 38% #255 1.08 #105 -0.5 #205
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #210 -1.3 #211
Freethrows 19.8 #74 77% #48 15.3 #42
Second Chance 37.0% #30 1.06 #159 0.39 #51
Turnovers 18.7% #304
Total Offense +0.8 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.05 #55 +2.0 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #229 0.89 #339 -0.6 #224
Three Pointers 42% #140 1.01 #176 -0.6 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #155 +0.8 #156
Freethrows 21.3 #339 75% #279 15.9 #27
Second Chance 36.1% #341 1.07 #222 0.39 #321
Turnovers 13.7% #327
Total Defense -5.6 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #254 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #198 -2.0% #145
Possession Length 17.6 #202 16.3 #44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #209 0.18 #227
Improvement +0.3 #167 -4.5 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 4.2% 9.6% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 34.2% 53.6% 26.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 0.6% 4.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 44 @TCU W 78 - 74 4% +12  1 - 0 +19 +9 A A+ F +10 A+ C- D-
 Mon, Nov 10 45 @LSU L 58 - 93 5% -17  1 - 1 -20 -11 F C+ B+ -8 B- C+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 167 @Tulane W 85 - 63 25% +11  2 - 1 +24 +19 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 283 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 46% -6  2 - 2 -15 +3 C- B F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 152 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 22% -4  2 - 3 -6 +0 D B+ F -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 24 65 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 7% +4  2 - 4 +8 +3 C C+ F +5 A F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 21 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -13 -15 F C+ F +2 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 90 @Memphis L 70 - 86 10% -16  2 - 6 -7 +5 C+ F B -12 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 301 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 73% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +1 C- D- A- -22 D+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 187 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 49% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -4 +11 A+ D F -14 F F B
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -18 -1 D- A+ F -18 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 234 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 36% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +15 +13 C A+ A- +2 D A A+
 Wed, Dec 31 184 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 27% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +1 D+ C F -14 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 282 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 46% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -10 -3 F C C -7 A+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 319 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 77% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -3 +6 D F A+ -9 C B F
 Sat, Jan 10 204 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 54% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -19 +10 B- A+ D- -31 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 269 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 43% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 +0 +8 D- A+ F -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 108 Stephen F. Austin L 72 - 78 29%
 Mon, Jan 19 213 Lamar W 73 - 72 56%
 Sat, Jan 24 81 @McNeese St. L 71 - 86 8%
 Mon, Jan 26 204 @Nicholls St. L 77 - 82 32%
 Sat, Jan 31 282 Northwestern St. W 80 - 75 69%
 Mon, Feb 2 319 @East Texas A&M W 79 - 77 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 234 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79 - 77 58%
 Mon, Feb 9 184 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 301 @Houston Christian W 77 - 76 52%
 Mon, Feb 16 187 @Incarnate Word L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 213 @Lamar L 70 - 75 33%
 Mon, Feb 23 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 81 McNeese St. L 74 - 83 21%
 Mon, Mar 2 269 SE Louisiana W 77 - 73 65%
Totals 12 - 19 10 - 12 -5 +1 C- B+ D -6 C D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.7 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 7.6 6.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 17.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.3 7.7 1.8 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 0.7 5.1 7.1 2.0 0.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.9 2.3 0.1 12.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.6 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.0 8.7 14.1 18.5 19.3 15.7 10.1 5.3 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 14.3% 0.0    0.0
16-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.2% 17.9% 17.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 0.7% 6.8% 6.8% 14.0 0.1 0.7
14-8 2.1% 4.9% 4.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
13-9 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
12-10 10.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 10.0
11-11 15.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.5
10-12 19.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.2
9-13 18.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.4
8-14 14.1% 14.1
7-15 8.7% 8.7
6-16 4.0% 4.0
5-17 1.1% 1.1
4-18 0.2% 0.2
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.1 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%