New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#286
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#287
Pace76.5#29
Improvement-0.4#219

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#264
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#329
Layup/Dunks+1.4#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#318
Freethrows+4.0#23
Improvement-1.1#296

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#293
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#353
Layups/Dunks-6.1#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#64
Freethrows+0.3#174
Improvement+0.7#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 10.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 21.8% 42.6% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 77.6% 63.3%
Conference Champion 7.8% 12.1% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.4% 5.4%
First Four3.2% 5.2% 2.9%
First Round3.9% 8.4% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 410 - 711 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 18, 2023 135   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-73 14%     0 - 1 +1.8 +0.0 +1.9
  Nov 20, 2023 74   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-96 7%     0 - 2 -18.1 -0.2 -17.0
  Nov 25, 2023 255   North Dakota L 69-71 OT 44%     0 - 3 -7.1 -17.7 +11.0
  Nov 26, 2023 344   @ Central Arkansas W 79-74 58%     1 - 3 -3.9 -3.2 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2023 125   @ Minnesota L 67-80 12%    
  Dec 09, 2023 112   @ San Jose St. L 62-75 10%    
  Dec 11, 2023 70   @ San Francisco L 66-83 5%    
  Dec 21, 2023 27   @ Ohio St. L 64-87 2%    
  Dec 29, 2023 97   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-85 9%    
  Jan 06, 2024 290   SE Louisiana W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 08, 2024 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 13, 2024 314   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 15, 2024 252   @ Nicholls St. L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 20, 2024 338   Northwestern St. W 82-74 76%    
  Jan 22, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian W 88-83 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 133   @ McNeese St. L 66-78 15%    
  Jan 29, 2024 309   @ Lamar L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 326   Incarnate Word W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 05, 2024 358   Houston Christian W 91-80 83%    
  Feb 10, 2024 303   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 12, 2024 338   @ Northwestern St. W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 309   Lamar W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 19, 2024 252   Nicholls St. W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 290   @ SE Louisiana L 77-80 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 326   @ Incarnate Word W 80-79 50%    
  Mar 04, 2024 314   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 78-79 47%    
  Mar 06, 2024 133   McNeese St. L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 4.9 4.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.0 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.7 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 4.7 6.6 8.3 11.1 12.5 12.9 12.1 10.3 7.1 5.4 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.9% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 71.9% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
14-4 43.9% 2.4    1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 52.2% 52.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 53.3% 53.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.3% 28.1% 28.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 2.8% 26.6% 26.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.1
14-4 5.4% 19.0% 19.0% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 4.4
13-5 7.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 6.4
12-6 10.3% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 9.6
11-7 12.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.4
10-8 12.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 12.4
9-9 12.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.3
8-10 11.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.9
7-11 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.2
6-12 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.3 94.3 0.0%