Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Pace62.8#341
Improvement+1.9#52

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot+3.1#90
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#247
Layup/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement+2.0#32

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#301
First Shot-4.2#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-5.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#54
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 11.4% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 51.5% 69.4% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 83.6% 61.7%
Conference Champion 6.5% 15.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.1% 4.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round6.8% 11.4% 5.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 77 @Colorado St. L 64-98 13%     0 - 1 -23.7 -3.7 -22.2
  Sun, Nov 16 21 @Indiana L 61-69 4%     0 - 2 +10.1 +2.5 +6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 312 Southern Indiana W 87-81 73%     1 - 2 -2.2 +8.8 -11.2
  Sat, Nov 22 84 High Point L 80-91 22%     1 - 3 -4.6 +12.9 -18.2
  Mon, Dec 1 80 McNeese St. L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Dec 6 270 @Nicholls St. W 71-70 55%    
  Mon, Dec 8 204 @New Orleans L 73-75 43%    
  Mon, Dec 15 46 @TCU L 63-79 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 247 Northern Arizona W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Dec 30 251 SE Louisiana W 72-66 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 277 Houston Christian W 73-65 75%    
  Mon, Jan 5 203 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 196 @Lamar L 66-68 41%    
  Mon, Jan 12 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 68-74 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 Northwestern St. W 74-66 76%    
  Mon, Jan 19 309 East Texas A&M W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-67 69%    
  Mon, Jan 26 277 @Houston Christian W 70-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 203 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-74 63%    
  Mon, Feb 2 235 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 @McNeese St. L 64-76 15%    
  Mon, Feb 9 251 @SE Louisiana W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 270 Nicholls St. W 74-67 73%    
  Mon, Feb 16 204 New Orleans W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 309 @East Texas A&M W 71-68 61%    
  Mon, Feb 23 284 @Northwestern St. W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 196 Lamar W 69-65 62%    
  Mon, Mar 2 139 Stephen F. Austin L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.6 3.7 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.8 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.9 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.2 5.7 7.6 9.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 10.1 8.7 6.6 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
20-2 95.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1
19-3 77.8% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
18-4 55.0% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
17-5 32.6% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1
16-6 13.5% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.2% 39.7% 39.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.6% 44.9% 44.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.6% 33.0% 33.0% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
18-4 3.0% 28.1% 28.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.2
17-5 4.7% 23.3% 23.3% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.6
16-6 6.6% 17.3% 17.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.5
15-7 8.7% 12.7% 12.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 7.6
14-8 10.1% 6.6% 6.6% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.4
13-9 11.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.6
12-10 10.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.5
11-11 10.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3
10-12 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.9
9-13 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.6
8-14 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-15 4.2% 4.2
6-16 2.7% 2.7
5-17 1.6% 1.6
4-18 0.7% 0.7
3-19 0.4% 0.4
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 0.4 93.1 0.0%