Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.9#327
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#299
Pace64.5#286
Improvement+0.2#57

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#339
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#358
Layup/Dunks+0.6#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#225
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement+0.0#116

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#300
First Shot-5.5#323
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#133
Layups/Dunks-4.6#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
Freethrows-2.7#319
Improvement+0.1#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17.5% 34.7% 13.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 47.0% 33.0%
Conference Champion 2.9% 5.4% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 8.6% 16.4%
First Four1.7% 2.9% 1.4%
First Round0.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 410 - 1211 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 297   North Dakota L 57-65 49%     0 - 1 -18.6 -18.6 -0.7
  Nov 12, 2022 78   @ UNLV L 63-88 4%     0 - 2 -15.0 -4.5 -9.0
  Nov 19, 2022 276   @ Valparaiso L 64-68 22%     0 - 3 -6.8 -5.0 -2.1
  Nov 25, 2022 318   Dartmouth W 69-64 45%     1 - 3 -4.7 -10.4 +5.5
  Nov 27, 2022 242   Grambling St. W 63-61 26%     2 - 3 -2.1 -5.9 +3.8
  Nov 28, 2022 307   @ Texas San Antonio L 62-68 29%     2 - 4 -11.3 -5.7 -6.2
  Dec 03, 2022 242   @ Grambling St. L 61-71 18%    
  Dec 11, 2022 47   @ Kansas St. L 54-78 1%    
  Dec 16, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 68-62 73%    
  Dec 21, 2022 241   @ Florida International L 67-77 19%    
  Dec 31, 2022 261   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 04, 2023 250   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 07, 2023 250   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 12, 2023 337   New Orleans W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 14, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 19, 2023 340   @ Houston Christian L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 21, 2023 330   @ Lamar L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 26, 2023 354   McNeese St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 28, 2023 249   Nicholls St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 02, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 04, 2023 337   @ New Orleans L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 330   Lamar W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 340   Houston Christian W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 16, 2023 354   @ McNeese St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 249   @ Nicholls St. L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 23, 2023 282   Northwestern St. L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 261   Texas A&M - Commerce L 62-65 40%    
  Mar 01, 2023 282   @ Northwestern St. L 62-70 25%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.9 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.1 10.4 12.5 13.9 13.3 11.6 9.0 6.5 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 87.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 71.9% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 39.1% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 37.9% 37.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 34.6% 34.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 27.4% 27.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.1% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.9
13-5 2.4% 13.1% 13.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1
12-6 4.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.3 3.8
11-7 6.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.4 6.2
10-8 9.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 8.8
9-9 11.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.4
8-10 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
7-11 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 12.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-13 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
4-14 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%