UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #222
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #245
Pace 69.2 #176
Improvement -1.8 #274

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 C D C- F C
Defense #184 C B- C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.14 #199 -1.7 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #212 0.67 #300 -1.5 #260
Three Pointers 45% #100 1.10 #70 +3.9 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #159 +0.7 #159
Freethrows 11.7 #361 74% #148 8.7 #358
Second Chance 26.3% #302 1.01 #224 0.27 #287
Turnovers 17.2% #226
Total Offense -3.1 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.24 #277 +0.2 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.68 #59 +0.9 #120
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.00 #154 -1.0 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.1 #175
Freethrows 18.5 #242 75% #288 13.9 #281
Second Chance 30.3% #166 0.96 #68 0.29 #108
Turnovers 16.2% #193
Total Defense -0.5 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #182 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #159 0.1% #189
Possession Length 17.6 #204 17.1 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #263 0.18 #199
Improvement -1.8 #286 +0.1 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 10.7% 16.3% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 48.4% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.0% 7.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 49 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Baylor L 81 - 96 4% -6  0 - 1 +1 +6 A+ F C -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 301 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 56% +11  1 - 1 +18 +18 A+ D+ D- -1 C A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 74 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 10% -9  1 - 2 -9 -6 B+ D F -2 C F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 194 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 33% +2  1 - 3 -6 +2 F A+ F -9 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 8 @Illinois L 73 - 87 1% -8  1 - 4 +9 +10 B+ C+ A+ -0 C A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 15% -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -6 F F A+ -0 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 186 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 55% +0  2 - 5 +8 -9 F A+ F +18 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 11 156 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 48% -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D- F D -2 C C+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 208 @Lamar W 83 - 72 37% +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +11 +13 A+ F A -2 F A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 237 New Orleans L 69 - 85 64% -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -23 -11 B- F F -12 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 232 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 63% -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -9 -8 F B+ F -1 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 55% -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -6 F F B+ -4 C F B
 Mon, Jan 5 224 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 62% +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +6 +10 C A+ B- -3 B+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 306 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 57% -9  4 - 10 2 - 5 -13 +1 B F C- -15 F F C-
 Mon, Jan 12 276 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 50% +4  4 - 11 2 - 6 -4 -10 F F F +6 B+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 87 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 24% +10  5 - 11 3 - 6 +7 +14 A+ C+ A -7 B+ A+ D
 Mon, Jan 19 272 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 70% +4  6 - 11 4 - 6 -6 -2 C- F A+ -4 D- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Houston Christian W 72 - 71 54%
 Mon, Jan 26 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 71 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 224 @Incarnate Word L 69 - 72 39%
 Mon, Feb 2 297 Houston Christian W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 237 @New Orleans L 77 - 79 41%
 Mon, Feb 9 232 @Nicholls St. L 73 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 72 32%
 Mon, Feb 16 208 Lamar W 69 - 66 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 272 @SE Louisiana L 68 - 69 48%
 Mon, Feb 23 87 @McNeese St. L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 East Texas A&M W 76 - 68 77%
 Mon, Mar 2 276 Northwestern St. W 75 - 69 70%
Totals 12 - 17 10 - 12 -4 -3 C D C- +0 C B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 7.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 8.5 5.8 0.6 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.6 6.8 7.4 0.9 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 7.8 2.0 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.9 2.5 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.5 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.2 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.0 7.1 13.2 19.2 21.2 16.8 11.1 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 3.2% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-7 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-8 1.7% 5.4% 5.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
13-9 5.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-10 11.1% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.3 10.8
11-11 16.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.6
10-12 21.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 21.0
9-13 19.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.1
8-14 13.2% 13.2
7-15 7.1% 7.1
6-16 3.0% 3.0
5-17 0.7% 0.7
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.1 98.8 0.0%