UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#195
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#144
Pace75.4#65
Improvement-0.2#209

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#192
First Shot+1.0#142
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#287
Layup/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#11
Freethrows-3.1#328
Improvement-0.4#245

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#206
First Shot+1.5#115
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#323
Layups/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
Freethrows+0.0#193
Improvement+0.2#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 9.4% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 52.0% 66.5% 41.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 72.8% 58.5%
Conference Champion 7.9% 10.8% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.5% 4.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round7.4% 9.3% 6.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 30 @Baylor L 81-96 5%     0 - 1 +1.7 +7.4 -4.2
  Sat, Nov 8 331 @Southern Utah W 95-72 66%     1 - 1 +16.5 +14.0 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 11 58 @Boise St. L 65-85 9%     1 - 2 -7.6 -5.4 -0.7
  Sat, Nov 22 216 @Missouri St. L 73-75 42%    
  Mon, Nov 24 10 @Illinois L 71-94 2%    
  Wed, Dec 3 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 26%    
  Sun, Dec 7 188 Austin Peay W 76-73 60%    
  Thu, Dec 11 164 Texas Arlington W 76-74 55%    
  Tue, Dec 16 194 @Lamar L 70-73 39%    
  Mon, Dec 29 215 New Orleans W 81-77 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 269 Nicholls St. W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 242 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-71 67%    
  Mon, Jan 5 182 Incarnate Word W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 328 @East Texas A&M W 77-73 64%    
  Mon, Jan 12 289 @Northwestern St. W 74-72 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 McNeese St. L 71-75 38%    
  Mon, Jan 19 245 SE Louisiana W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 277 @Houston Christian W 72-71 53%    
  Mon, Jan 26 242 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 182 @Incarnate Word L 72-76 38%    
  Mon, Feb 2 277 Houston Christian W 75-68 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 215 @New Orleans L 78-80 43%    
  Mon, Feb 9 269 @Nicholls St. W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 Stephen F. Austin L 75-76 47%    
  Mon, Feb 16 194 Lamar W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 245 @SE Louisiana L 72-73 47%    
  Mon, Feb 23 103 @McNeese St. L 68-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 328 East Texas A&M W 80-70 80%    
  Mon, Mar 2 289 Northwestern St. W 77-69 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 3.3 1.0 0.2 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.7 6.3 8.2 9.2 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.7 8.0 6.3 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
20-2 96.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
19-3 88.5% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
18-4 66.1% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0
17-5 45.7% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-6 21.6% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-7 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.2% 48.6% 48.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.7% 42.1% 42.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
19-3 1.5% 39.9% 39.9% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
18-4 2.7% 31.8% 31.8% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.9
17-5 4.2% 26.2% 26.2% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.1
16-6 6.3% 21.5% 21.5% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.9
15-7 8.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 6.9
14-8 9.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.8
13-9 10.5% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.0
12-10 10.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.3
11-11 10.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
10-12 9.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.1
9-13 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.1
8-14 6.3% 6.3
7-15 4.7% 4.7
6-16 3.3% 3.3
5-17 2.0% 2.0
4-18 1.1% 1.1
3-19 0.5% 0.5
2-20 0.2% 0.2
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 1.8 0.4 92.5 0.0%