UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 151
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 179
Pace 67.7 208
Improvement +3.5 64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 176 C+ C- C- D- C+
Defense C+ 142 C B C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 236 C 59% 156 -0.9 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 256 D 33% 321 -2.1 281
Three Pointers 46% 68 B- 36% 112 +3.9 59
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 C +0.5 155
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 146
Second Chance C- 28.5% 236 C 1.03 166 C- 0.29 218
Turnovers C- 17.5% 223
Freethrows F 0.23 361 B 76% 65 D- 0.17 345
Total Offense C -0.7 176

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 153 C 11.4% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 168 D+ 6.8% 294
Three Pointers B 90% 60 C- 1.2% 268
Total B 62% 61 C- 5.9% 217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 248 D+ 61% 263 +0.0 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 143 C+ 36% 112 +0.0 185
Three Pointers 42% 145 C+ 33% 128 -0.1 170
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 123 C +0.1 181
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C- 31.6% 229 A 0.84 7 B 0.26 61
Turnovers C 17.1% 170
Freethrows D+ 0.33 276 B- 71% 102 C- 0.24 246
Total Defense C+ +0.9 142

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 351 D+ 8.9% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 329 D+ 3.2% 290
Three Pointers D 90% 60 C 1.0% 268
Total D- 65% 347 D+ 4.4% 282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 240 17.1 157
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 278 0.18 212
Improvement +2.7 #64 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 92% 98% 81%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 7% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 25 - 8
Quad 411 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Baylor L 81 - 96 10% -6  38% 0 - 1 C -1 C+ +2 A- F+ B- C- -2 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 275 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 65% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +19 A+ +14 A+ C- D- B +4 B- B+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 65 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 15% -9  8% 1 - 2 D -8 F -11 C+ D- F B +4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 201 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 49% +2  68% 1 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ F D -6 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 5 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  19% 1 - 4 B+ +12 B +7 B- B A+ B+ +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 100 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 23% -8  6% 1 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F F A B +4 B+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 7 148 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 61% +0  48% 2 - 5 B +10 F -12 F+ A F A+ +23 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 183 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 68% -0  40% 2 - 6 D- -12 F -14 D F D C +0 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 206 @Lamar W 83 - 72 50% +12  98% 3 - 6 1 - 1 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F C+ B- +3 D- A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 210 New Orleans L 69 - 85 72% -8  7% 3 - 7 1 - 2 F -22 F -11 B F F F -11 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 264 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 80% -2  18% 3 - 8 1 - 3 D -11 F -11 F+ C F C +0 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 70% -1  27% 3 - 9 1 - 4 D -9 F+ -9 F F+ B+ C -0 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 5 273 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 82% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 B- +4 D+ A- C+ C+ +0 A- B D-
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 70% -9  13% 4 - 10 2 - 5 D- -13 C- -1 B- D- C- F -13 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 279 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 65% +4  90% 4 - 11 2 - 6 C- -5 F -10 D- F F+ B+ +6 C+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 84 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 36% +10  89% 5 - 11 3 - 6 B- +7 A +12 A+ B- A D+ -5 B- A- D
 Mon, Jan 19 281 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 83% +4  89% 6 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -4 C F+ A C- -3 D- A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 68% +8  86% 7 - 11 5 - 6 B+ +13 C +0 A- F C- A+ +15 D+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 48% +3  66% 8 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C- -2 D B C A+ +12 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 273 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 65% +7  77% 9 - 11 7 - 6 B +9 A+ +24 A+ B A+ F -15 F A A-
 Mon, Feb 2 292 Houston Christian W 74 - 57 84% +15  97% 10 - 11 8 - 6 B- +7 C+ +3 F+ A+ F B+ +6 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 210 @New Orleans W 95 - 76 50% +16  98% 11 - 11 9 - 6 A +19 A +12 B+ A+ F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 264 @Nicholls St. W 92 - 72 62% +14  98% 12 - 11 10 - 6 A- +17 A+ +16 A- A+ D C+ +2 C- B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 100 Stephen F. Austin L 57 - 66 43% -5  0% 12 - 12 10 - 7 D+ -7 F+ -9 D+ D- F+ C+ +1 B+ B+ C
 Mon, Feb 16 206 Lamar W 70 - 65 72% +1  65% 13 - 12 11 - 7 C -1 B- +4 D D- A+ D+ -4 D B+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 281 @SE Louisiana W 69 - 65 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 84 @McNeese St. L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 East Texas A&M W 77 - 65 86%
 Mon, Mar 2 279 Northwestern St. W 75 - 65 83%
Totals 16 - 13 14 - 8 +0 C -1 A+ C C+ C+ +1 B- B D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D B- C 37% 30% 46% C+ C+ C- C C- C- F B D- C+ D+ C+ C+ C 37% 22% 42% C+ C C- A B C D+ B- C-
1.08 59% 33% 36% 0 0 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 17% .23 76% .17 1.07 61% 36% 33% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.8 .26 17% .33 71% .16
Nov
3		 Baylor C+ A+ C+ A- A 19% 37% 44% C- A- F A+ F+ B- F A+ D- C- F B- F F 20% 33% 47% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ C- F A F
1.04 82% 41% 38% +8 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15 1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31
Nov
8		 Southern Utah A+ C F A+ A+ 47% 12% 42% A- A+ A+ F C- D- F F F B D A- B C+ 31% 27% 42% A- B- C+ A B+ F+ D- A D+
1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05 0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19
Nov
11		 Boise St. F A D+ B- B 33% 39% 29% F+ C+ F A- D- F A F D+ B A- A+ F C+ 42% 19% 40% B- C+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17 1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34
Nov
22		 Missouri St. C- A+ F F F 37% 30% 33% B- F A- A+ A+ F B- A+ A- D F C+ A- D+ 21% 19% 60% C- D+ B A+ A+ F F F F
1.06 81% 23% 14% -5 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33
Nov
24		 Illinois B D+ F A+ B 28% 34% 38% C- B- C A B A+ A F C+ B+ F A- A C 34% 11% 55% C C A+ A A+ B+ D- F F
1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12 1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32
Dec
3		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F+ F F F 51% 20% 29% B F D- F F A D+ B- C- B B A- C B+ 26% 36% 38% A B+ A- C- B D- F D F
0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20 1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28
Dec
7		 Austin Peay F D A+ F D- 28% 26% 47% F+ F+ B- A+ A F F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 14% 28% F A+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+
0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18 0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21
Dec
11		 Texas Arlington F C- F C- D- 36% 20% 43% B- D F D- F D F C+ F C D- D+ A C 30% 16% 53% B- C D- B C B A+ C A
0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17 1.00 62% 43% 26% -4 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18
Dec
16		 Lamar B+ F+ C A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ F C- F C+ F C F B- F C- D F 18% 34% 48% B D- A- A+ A+ B F C F
1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15 1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26
Dec
29		 New Orleans F A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% D B C- F F F D F F F B F C- C 44% 19% 37% F+ C- C- F F F B- F D
0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19 1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30
Dec
31		 Nicholls St. F F C- B F 41% 16% 43% C F+ C+ D+ C F F+ C F+ C C C- B- C 35% 17% 48% C C D D+ D A+ F D- F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22 1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32
Jan
3		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ F+ A+ F F 40% 22% 38% D+ F D+ F F+ B+ C+ B+ B- C A A F B- 58% 24% 18% D+ C+ F D- F B- F B F+
0.94 50% 60% 12% -11 0 0.80 26% 0.7 .17 17% .42 77% .33 1.00 42% 27% 50% -7 +1 0.89 36% 1.1 .39 19% .47 63% .29
Jan
5		 Incarnate Word B- B+ A D- D+ 35% 8% 58% C+ D+ A C A- C+ F A+ D- C+ A+ B+ C- A 40% 26% 34% C A- F A+ B D- F C F+
1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24 1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25
Jan
10		 East Texas A&M C- C F A B- 47% 4% 49% A- B- D+ F D- C- F+ C F+ F F B- F+ F 33% 13% 54% C- F F F F C C B+ C+
1.05 57% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 18% .24 69% .17 1.17 69% 33% 38% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.4 .50 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
12		 Northwestern St. F C F D- F+ 45% 8% 47% A- D- F A+ F F+ F A+ F B+ D A A- B- 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ B- B B B F D F
0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13 0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34
Jan
17		 McNeese St. A B B+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% C- A+ F A+ B- A D B C- D+ D F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% B+ B- F+ A+ A- D F F F
1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27 1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37
Jan
19		 SE Louisiana D+ F+ A+ D+ C- 32% 18% 50% C C D F F+ A A- F+ B- C- F+ A+ D D- 37% 22% 41% D+ D- B- A+ A D- C- C+ C
1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31 0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22
Jan
24		 Houston Christian C B F A+ B+ 58% 4% 38% A+ A- F F F C- F A+ F A+ B- D D- D 37% 24% 39% B- D+ D A+ B+ A+ A A- A
1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08 0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12
Jan
26		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- A+ C F D 29% 20% 51% D D B C B C A C A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 38% 21% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ F B- F
1.01 83% 38% 19% -4 -1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .49 72% .36 0.86 38% 27% 25% -16 -2 0.67 36% 0.4 .14 20% .81 63% .51
Jan
31		 Incarnate Word A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 14% 44% C A+ F A+ B A+ D A C F F F F F 33% 27% 40% B- F F A+ A A- F F F
1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27 1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Houston Christian C+ F F C+ F 41% 9% 50% B- F+ A+ A- A+ F A A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- B+ 42% 20% 38% C- B C A+ A+ F B F C+
1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36 0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 New Orleans A C+ F+ A B+ 35% 13% 52% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F B A+ C+ 40% 31% 29% B B- A+ F D+ C F C- F
1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40 1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ D B- A- 50% 7% 43% A A- A+ A+ A+ D B- A B+ C+ F D- A+ D+ 31% 23% 46% B+ C- B- C+ B- D- F A+ C-
1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32 1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20
Feb
14		 Stephen F. Austin F+ C- A+ F D+ 33% 20% 48% C- D+ C F D- F+ F+ C D- C+ C D- A+ A- 38% 23% 38% D B+ F A+ B+ C F C+ F
0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16 1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
16		 Lamar B- D- F C F+ 46% 8% 46% A D C+ F D- A+ C+ B+ B- D+ A F+ F D- 38% 42% 20% B- D D+ A+ B+ F F+ A+ B
1.17 52% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.7 .23 3% .40 74% .29 1.09 42% 48% 50% +3 -3 1.02 36% 0.7 .25 12% .30 44% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.8 33.0 45.0 8.8 91.7 3rd
4th 0.3 4.1 2.4 6.8 4th
5th 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 9.8 35.4 45.0 8.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 8.9% 10.3% 10.3% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 8.0
14-8 45.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.1 1.6 1.3 0.1 41.9
13-9 35.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.0 33.4
12-10 9.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-11 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 13.7 93.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.6 0.5 41.3 54.3 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 0.4%