UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #216
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #253
Pace 70.6 #146
Improvement -0.9 #232

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #251 C F C- D+ C
Defense #176 C D+ B- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.15 #185 -1.2 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #192 0.62 #316 -1.6 #253
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.10 #74 +3.4 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.6 #161
Freethrows 11.6 #361 74% #143 8.6 #351
Second Chance 29.2% #230 1.01 #224 0.30 #231
Turnovers 17.9% #256
Total Offense -2.9 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.20 #225 +1.3 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #170 0.69 #107 +0.6 #154
Three Pointers 44% #96 1.00 #175 -1.2 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #159 +0.6 #158
Freethrows 18.6 #245 75% #270 13.9 #273
Second Chance 29.8% #145 0.96 #84 0.29 #104
Turnovers 16.9% #169
Total Defense -0.2 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #192 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #158 -0.6% #171
Possession Length 17.5 #192 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #275 0.18 #203
Improvement -2.0 #310 +1.2 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 17.4% 22.9% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 51.3% 24.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.4% 8.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 2.1% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 31 @Baylor L 81-96 4%     -5.6   0 - 1 +2.2 +5.4 -1.7
  Sat, Nov 8 333 @Southern Utah W 95-72 67%     11.0   1 - 1 +15.4 +15.4 -1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 52 @Boise St. L 65-85 7%     -8.7   1 - 2 -6.6 -3.9 -1.3
  Sat, Nov 22 187 @Missouri St. L 67-74 34%     2.4   1 - 3 -5.8 +3.1 -9.7
  Mon, Nov 24 9 @Illinois L 73-87 2%     -8.3   1 - 4 +8.9 +9.7 -0.7
  Wed, Dec 3 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 60-73 17%     -7.9   1 - 5 0 - 1 -6.1 -6.5 +0.1
  Sun, Dec 7 204 Austin Peay W 63-50 60%     0.0   2 - 5 +7.3 -9.3 +16.8
  Thu, Dec 11 158 Texas Arlington L 50-58 50%     -0.2   2 - 6 -11.2 -10.4 -2.4
  Tue, Dec 16 232 @Lamar W 83-72 41%     12.5   3 - 6 1 - 1 +10.1 +12.1 -2.0
  Mon, Dec 29 233 New Orleans L 69-85 65%     -7.5   3 - 7 1 - 2 -23.1 -9.1 -14.1
  Wed, Dec 31 212 Nicholls St. L 69-71 61%     -2.2   3 - 8 1 - 3 -8.0 -5.7 -2.3
  Sat, Jan 3 185 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59-63 55%     -1.5   3 - 9 1 - 4 -8.6 -6.8 -2.2
  Mon, Jan 5 164 Incarnate Word W 80-67 52%     8.3   4 - 9 2 - 4 +9.4 +9.9 +0.6
  Sat, Jan 10 326 @East Texas A&M W 75-71 65%    
  Mon, Jan 12 285 @Northwestern St. W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 84 McNeese St. L 69-76 25%    
  Mon, Jan 19 256 SE Louisiana W 72-67 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 @Houston Christian W 71-70 56%    
  Mon, Jan 26 185 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 164 @Incarnate Word L 70-76 31%    
  Mon, Feb 2 294 Houston Christian W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 233 @New Orleans L 76-78 43%    
  Mon, Feb 9 212 @Nicholls St. L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 112 Stephen F. Austin L 68-72 35%    
  Mon, Feb 16 232 Lamar W 70-66 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 256 @SE Louisiana L 69-70 48%    
  Mon, Feb 23 84 @McNeese St. L 66-79 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 326 East Texas A&M W 78-68 82%    
  Mon, Mar 2 285 Northwestern St. W 75-68 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.5 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.9 7.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.5 7.4 2.8 0.3 16.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.8 0.2 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 7.6 11.6 15.1 17.1 15.6 11.9 7.8 4.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 45.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 14.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.5% 18.3% 18.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-7 1.7% 10.7% 10.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-8 4.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
13-9 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 7.4
12-10 11.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6
11-11 15.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 15.4
10-12 17.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 16.9
9-13 15.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.0
8-14 11.6% 11.6
7-15 7.6% 7.6
6-16 4.1% 4.1
5-17 1.8% 1.8
4-18 0.6% 0.6
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 98.2 0.0%