UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#311
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#208
Pace78.7#18
Improvement+0.3#21

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#246
First Shot-2.0#242
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#357
Freethrows+6.7#1
Improvement+0.4#6

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#325
First Shot-3.7#285
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#315
Layups/Dunks+0.8#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#278
Freethrows-1.8#287
Improvement+0.0#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 8.5% 16.0% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 6.4% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.5% 39.4% 50.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 47   @ Kansas St. L 59-93 3%     0 - 1 -21.0 -13.8 -3.1
  Nov 17, 2022 250   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 75-97 24%     0 - 2 -23.4 -3.8 -18.3
  Nov 21, 2022 298   Western Illinois W 78-77 58%     1 - 2 -9.7 -5.5 -4.2
  Nov 22, 2022 304   Northern Arizona W 91-79 59%     2 - 2 +1.0 +5.1 -4.8
  Nov 26, 2022 4   @ Texas L 54-91 1%     2 - 3 -14.5 -12.1 +1.0
  Nov 30, 2022 250   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 89-82 45%     3 - 3 -0.4 +5.8 -6.7
  Dec 03, 2022 298   @ Western Illinois L 79-83 35%    
  Dec 10, 2022 340   @ Houston Christian W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 18, 2022 340   Houston Christian W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 29, 2022 246   @ Utah Tech L 69-76 24%    
  Dec 31, 2022 183   @ Southern Utah L 80-91 16%    
  Jan 05, 2023 114   Seattle L 75-85 19%    
  Jan 07, 2023 182   Utah Valley L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 11, 2023 226   Abilene Christian L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 357   Chicago St. W 83-73 81%    
  Jan 19, 2023 291   @ Texas Arlington L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 63   @ Sam Houston St. L 60-80 4%    
  Jan 25, 2023 168   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-84 15%    
  Jan 28, 2023 160   California Baptist L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 01, 2023 63   Sam Houston St. L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 04, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. L 70-84 10%    
  Feb 09, 2023 291   Texas Arlington W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin L 75-81 31%    
  Feb 15, 2023 128   @ Grand Canyon L 63-78 10%    
  Feb 18, 2023 104   @ New Mexico St. L 74-90 8%    
  Feb 23, 2023 246   Utah Tech L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 135   Tarleton St. L 73-81 23%    
  Mar 01, 2023 160   @ California Baptist L 65-77 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.6 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 4.8 6.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 15.5 11th
12th 0.2 2.9 7.4 8.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 22.6 12th
13th 2.4 8.1 11.3 8.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 33.6 13th
Total 2.4 8.3 14.2 17.0 17.2 14.4 10.8 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4
13-5 11.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4
13-5 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.4
7-11 7.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
6-12 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-13 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.1
3-15 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.0
2-16 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
1-17 8.3% 8.3
0-18 2.4% 2.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%