UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#166
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#105
Pace76.5#29
Improvement+0.3#165

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#135
First Shot+1.1#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks+0.9#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#63
Freethrows-3.2#332
Improvement-0.4#216

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#243
First Shot-1.2#209
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#249
Layups/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#27
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+0.7#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.7% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 90.4% 93.2% 79.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 94.7% 81.9%
Conference Champion 16.5% 18.9% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round14.3% 15.6% 9.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 415 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   @ Nebraska L 67-87 9%     0 - 1 -6.0 -3.6 -0.7
  Nov 06, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 86-99 8%     0 - 2 +1.7 +13.1 -10.3
  Nov 15, 2024 276   Charleston Southern W 86-76 71%     1 - 2 +3.7 +0.6 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 330   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 81%     2 - 2 +15.2 +7.9 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 7%     2 - 3 +12.5 +17.8 -5.3
  Nov 25, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 97-77 87%     3 - 3 +7.0 +11.6 -6.0
  Dec 05, 2024 197   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 65%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -1.7 -2.9 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 280   Lamar W 82-73 80%    
  Dec 18, 2024 199   Southern Utah W 83-79 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 344   @ New Orleans W 86-77 79%    
  Jan 06, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 13, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-68 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 83-74 80%    
  Jan 20, 2025 314   @ Incarnate Word W 83-78 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 27, 2025 223   Nicholls St. W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-77 68%    
  Feb 03, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 280   @ Lamar W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 10, 2025 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 86-71 91%    
  Feb 17, 2025 314   Incarnate Word W 86-75 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 24, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 72-81 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 344   New Orleans W 89-74 90%    
  Mar 03, 2025 227   SE Louisiana W 78-72 70%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.3 4.6 3.1 1.4 0.3 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.5 9.1 5.9 2.4 0.3 28.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.9 5.3 2.1 0.3 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.2 9.1 12.2 14.2 14.4 13.4 10.5 7.0 3.4 1.4 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 90.3% 3.1    2.5 0.6
17-3 66.0% 4.6    3.0 1.5 0.0
16-4 41.3% 4.3    2.1 1.9 0.4
15-5 16.2% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.9 5.5 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 56.5% 56.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.4% 46.5% 46.5% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7
18-2 3.4% 38.5% 38.5% 12.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1
17-3 7.0% 32.6% 32.6% 13.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 4.7
16-4 10.5% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.7
15-5 13.4% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 10.7
14-6 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 12.3
13-7 14.2% 8.8% 8.8% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 13.0
12-8 12.2% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.6
11-9 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8
10-10 6.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
9-11 4.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 5.1 3.4 0.7 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.5 1.8 3.6 32.1 62.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%