Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.9 #112
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #104
Pace 65.9 #277
Improvement -0.7 #218

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #153 C- F B- A- D-
Defense #79 B C- B- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #296 1.02 #323 -4.9 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #69 0.81 #113 +3.0 #52
Three Pointers 39% #221 1.05 #142 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #236 -2.2 #237
Freethrows 12.0 #355 65% #340 7.8 #364
Second Chance 34.0% #91 1.08 #136 0.37 #89
Turnovers 13.8% #35
Total Offense +0.5 #153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.04 #48 +0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #112 0.77 #212 -1.0 #254
Three Pointers 35% #329 0.95 #117 +4.3 #35
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #78 +3.4 #80
Freethrows 19.0 #266 70% #90 13.3 #133
Second Chance 28.5% #104 1.00 #131 0.29 #101
Turnovers 14.8% #290
Total Defense +3.5 #79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #301 0.2% #177
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #209 -6.9% #66
Possession Length 17.9 #242 18.0 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #364 0.17 #169
Improvement -2.0 #305 +1.3 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 29.4% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 39.7% 41.7% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.9% 29.4% 23.5%
Second Round2.9% 3.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 417 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 135 Arkansas St. W 90-65 70%     15.7   1 - 0 +23.4 +10.9 +11.1
  Tue, Nov 11 256 @Rice W 81-69 73%     8.0   2 - 0 +9.4 +9.3 +0.6
  Fri, Nov 14 210 Abilene Christian W 76-66 82%     1.3   3 - 0 +4.1 +5.3 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 18 155 @Fresno St. L 78-80 54%     0.9   3 - 1 +1.0 +11.2 -10.2
  Fri, Nov 21 267 @Pepperdine W 63-60 75%     -3.4   4 - 1 +0.0 -6.0 +6.1
  Sat, Nov 29 159 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 54%     3.1   4 - 2 -2.1 +1.0 -3.8
  Wed, Dec 3 216 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 83%     7.9   5 - 2 1 - 0 +6.8 +0.1 +7.1
  Sun, Dec 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 96-76 96%     10.8   6 - 2 +3.1 +10.4 -8.0
  Wed, Dec 17 184 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-60 79%     0.6   7 - 2 2 - 0 +4.4 +3.1 +2.2
  Mon, Dec 29 325 @East Texas A&M W 75-48 85%     6.3   8 - 2 3 - 0 +19.9 +7.2 +14.9
  Wed, Dec 31 287 @Northwestern St. W 74-64 78%     7.2   9 - 2 4 - 0 +5.9 +2.9 +3.7
  Sat, Jan 3 257 @SE Louisiana W 73-63 74%     7.6   10 - 2 5 - 0 +7.3 +5.3 +2.6
  Mon, Jan 5 86 @McNeese St. L 64-66 29%     2.4   10 - 3 5 - 1 +7.8 +5.2 +2.3
  Sat, Jan 10 294 Houston Christian W 76-61 91%    
  Mon, Jan 12 165 Incarnate Word W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 232 @New Orleans W 77-72 68%    
  Mon, Jan 19 211 @Nicholls St. W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 231 @Lamar W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Jan 26 287 Northwestern St. W 76-62 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 257 SE Louisiana W 73-60 88%    
  Mon, Feb 2 86 McNeese St. W 71-70 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 231 Lamar W 71-60 84%    
  Mon, Feb 9 325 East Texas A&M W 79-62 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 216 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-68 65%    
  Mon, Feb 16 184 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-66 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 Nicholls St. W 76-66 81%    
  Mon, Feb 23 232 New Orleans W 80-69 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 @Houston Christian W 73-64 78%    
  Mon, Mar 2 165 @Incarnate Word W 71-69 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 17 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.7 10.7 11.8 7.1 2.0 39.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.0 11.0 12.1 7.5 2.5 0.2 41.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.8 11.4 16.0 18.4 18.2 14.3 7.3 2.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
20-2 97.3% 7.1    6.3 0.8
19-3 82.3% 11.8    8.6 3.1 0.0
18-4 58.8% 10.7    6.2 4.2 0.3 0.0
17-5 31.0% 5.7    2.4 2.8 0.5 0.0
16-6 12.6% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0
15-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 26.3 12.0 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 2.0% 52.5% 52.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 1.0%
20-2 7.3% 43.3% 43.3% 12.1 0.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2
19-3 14.3% 38.8% 38.8% 12.6 0.1 2.4 2.7 0.4 8.8
18-4 18.2% 36.1% 36.1% 12.9 0.0 1.7 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.6
17-5 18.4% 30.1% 30.1% 13.2 0.7 3.2 1.6 0.1 12.9
16-6 16.0% 23.7% 23.7% 13.5 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.2 12.2
15-7 11.4% 18.0% 18.0% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 9.3
14-8 6.8% 12.3% 12.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.9
13-9 3.3% 6.9% 6.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
12-10 1.6% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-11 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-12 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-13 0.0% 0.0
8-14 0.0% 0.0
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 1.1 7.7 13.1 6.3 0.7 0.0 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.4 0.9 2.4 56.4 39.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 0.8% 11.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 1.5% 11.0 1.5