Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#197
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#239
Pace65.0#291
Improvement+1.4#93

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#324
First Shot-6.6#341
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks+0.2#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#253
Freethrows-3.1#331
Improvement+0.6#131

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#76
First Shot+6.1#23
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#310
Layups/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement+0.7#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 12.9% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 71.9% 83.8% 63.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 91.5% 75.8%
Conference Champion 6.7% 11.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round9.3% 12.8% 6.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 414 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 73   @ Drake L 51-66 13%     0 - 1 -4.3 -7.6 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 130   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 27%     0 - 2 -5.4 -16.6 +10.5
  Nov 21, 2024 248   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 72%     0 - 3 -10.6 -26.0 +15.6
  Nov 22, 2024 287   Monmouth W 72-67 77%     1 - 3 -4.5 -3.7 -0.7
  Nov 23, 2024 229   Youngstown St. W 64-57 69%     2 - 3 +0.2 -4.8 +5.4
  Nov 29, 2024 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 69%     3 - 3 +1.2 +2.0 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 35%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -0.6 -9.0 +8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 15, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 56-75 4%    
  Dec 31, 2024 178   @ Abilene Christian L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 314   Incarnate Word W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 06, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 73-59 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 280   @ Lamar W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 13, 2025 227   SE Louisiana W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 297   Northwestern St. W 67-59 78%    
  Jan 27, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-56 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 280   Lamar W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 03, 2025 344   @ New Orleans W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 10, 2025 166   UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 17, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 314   @ Incarnate Word W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 24, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 70-62 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 223   Nicholls St. W 67-62 66%    
  Mar 03, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 59-69 18%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.7 5.6 2.9 0.8 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.0 5.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.9 4.1 0.9 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.3 3.6 0.5 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.5 10.3 12.7 15.0 14.1 12.8 8.8 5.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 94.2% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 69.0% 1.8    1.2 0.6 0.0
16-4 41.8% 2.2    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 15.6% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 51.8% 51.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 38.8% 38.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-3 2.6% 35.9% 35.9% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.7
16-4 5.3% 27.7% 27.7% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9
15-5 8.8% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 6.9
14-6 12.8% 15.8% 15.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 10.7
13-7 14.1% 8.9% 8.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 12.9
12-8 15.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 14.1
11-9 12.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.3
10-10 10.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 10.1
9-11 7.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.4
8-12 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.5 1.3 90.5 0.0%