Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#157
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#119
Pace71.4#119
Improvement-1.8#312

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#165
First Shot-0.3#181
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#136
Layup/Dunks+5.2#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#330
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement-1.0#283

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#168
First Shot-1.6#234
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#77
Layups/Dunks-1.1#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#112
Freethrows-3.6#336
Improvement-0.8#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 12.9% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 81.8% 89.7% 72.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 86.9% 78.5%
Conference Champion 11.8% 14.5% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.6% 12.8% 8.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 61   South Dakota St. L 71-83 34%     0 - 1 -7.3 -9.2 +2.8
  Nov 19, 2021 183   Middle Tennessee W 87-74 67%     1 - 1 +9.0 +6.1 +1.7
  Nov 23, 2021 70   Buffalo W 79-78 27%     2 - 1 +8.0 +0.5 +7.5
  Nov 24, 2021 63   Saint Louis L 68-79 25%     2 - 2 -3.4 -3.5 +0.5
  Nov 28, 2021 343   @ Northwestern St. W 72-68 84%     3 - 2 -6.2 -6.9 +0.7
  Dec 11, 2021 171   Liberty W 66-65 54%    
  Dec 14, 2021 266   Louisiana Monroe W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 18, 2021 9   @ Kansas L 67-86 4%    
  Dec 21, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 71-63 78%    
  Dec 30, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 01, 2022 319   Lamar W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 06, 2022 146   @ Abilene Christian L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 180   @ Tarleton St. L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 222   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 123   Grand Canyon W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 94   New Mexico St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 26, 2022 175   @ Seattle L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 216   @ California Baptist L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 03, 2022 151   Utah Valley W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 307   Dixie St. W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 80-64 92%    
  Feb 16, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 83-61 97%    
  Feb 19, 2022 319   @ Lamar W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 24, 2022 222   Sam Houston St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 146   Abilene Christian W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 02, 2022 94   @ New Mexico St. L 65-73 24%    
  Mar 05, 2022 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 11.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.8 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.0 1.3 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.5 1.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.9 1.6 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.3 2.3 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.3 0.3 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.7 10.4 12.9 14.7 14.3 12.0 9.1 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.8% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 91.9% 2.7    2.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 70.5% 3.8    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.8% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 6.5 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 68.5% 57.7% 10.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.5%
17-1 1.0% 48.0% 46.5% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.7%
16-2 2.9% 35.3% 35.1% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.4%
15-3 5.4% 29.7% 29.7% 13.2 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8
14-4 9.1% 23.9% 23.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.9
13-5 12.0% 16.7% 16.7% 13.9 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.0
12-6 14.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 12.8
11-7 14.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 13.8
10-8 12.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.3
9-9 10.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
8-10 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 4.8% 4.8
6-12 2.5% 2.5
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.6 2.2 0.4 89.4 0.1%