Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +4.7 100
Results Rating +7.7 77
Consistency 0.12 42
Pace 65.5 259
Improvement -1.0 227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 118 C- C+ A- F D
Defense B- 96 B- C C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 D 53% 299 -4.8 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 117 C 39% 158 +2.4 56
Three Pointers 40% 201 B- 36% 96 +0.9 151
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 321 C -0.3 178
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 223
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 104 C 1.02 196 C+ 0.33 126
Opponents' Steals A 6.6% 7
Other Turnovers B- 6.3% 69
Turnovers A- 13.0% 13
Freethrows F+ 0.23 356 D- 67% 331 F 0.15 362
Total Offense C+ +1.9 118

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 29% 359 D- 14.3% 336
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 173 C- 5.7% 237
Three Pointers C 83% 212 B- 0.5% 81
Total D- 47% 330 D+ 6.5% 279


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 105 B- 55% 100 +0.5 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 172 D- 44% 343 +1.3 293
Three Pointers 38% 280 B+ 30% 34 -3.9 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 207 B- -2.2 88
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 116
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 116 D+ 1.09 278 C 0.32 201
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 135
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 290
Turnovers C 16.6% 187
Freethrows C+ 0.28 114 C- 74% 261 C+ 0.21 130
Total Defense B- +2.8 96

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 201 C 11.2% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 201 D+ 3.2% 274
Three Pointers B 79% 49 B 1.6% 59
Total B- 52% 111 C 5.9% 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 229 17.8 263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 356 0.15 95
Consistency 0.13 214 0.13 244
Improvement +0.2 171 -1.3 253

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 110 103 97
Results Rating Rank 89 83 69
Conference Record 20 - 2 20 - 2 20 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37% 47% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round37% 47% 0%
Second Round3% 4% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 28 - 4
Quad 418 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 145 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 74% +16  99% 1 - 0 A +23 B+ +8 C A+ F+ A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 223 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  97% 2 - 0 B+ +11 B +7 B- C B- B+ +5 B+ A F
 Fri, Nov 14 235 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 86% +1  58% 3 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C- A+ C +0 B B F+
 Tue, Nov 18 133 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 50% +1  53% 3 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +9 C+ A+ B- D- -7 F D- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 271 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 77% -3  27% 4 - 1 C -0 F -11 F A- C+ A+ +11 B C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 180 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 62% +3  70% 4 - 2 C- -3 C- -1 D+ C C+ C- -3 D+ B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 146 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 74% +8  93% 5 - 2 1 - 0 B +11 C- -2 F+ C A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 354 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +2 B +7 A- D A D -5 A F F
 Wed, Dec 17 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 82% +1  45% 7 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 C C B+ B +5 B D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 307 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 84% +6  78% 8 - 2 3 - 0 A +21 B- +5 D C+ B+ A+ +19 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 279 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 78% +7  89% 9 - 2 4 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 C- F+ B+ B +4 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 289 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 80% +8  91% 10 - 2 5 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 D- C+ B- B +4 B- F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 82 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 31% +2  75% 10 - 3 5 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 D+ B+ C B +4 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 290 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  98% 11 - 3 6 - 1 B- +8 A+ +15 C+ B A+ D -5 F C A
 Mon, Jan 12 265 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 89% +7  86% 12 - 3 7 - 1 C +1 F -23 F C+ C- A+ +25 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 199 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 65% +1  60% 13 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 A- F A+ D+ -4 F+ D- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 250 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 74% +16  97% 14 - 3 9 - 1 A- +15 B+ +8 A F C+ A- +8 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Lamar W 88 - 81 73% +4  89% 15 - 3 10 - 1 B- +5 A+ +18 A+ D- A+ F -12 D- F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 279 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 90% +8  98% 16 - 3 11 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 F C- B+ B +4 A D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 289 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 91% +21  98% 17 - 3 12 - 1 A- +17 A+ +21 A+ A+ A C+ +0 C+ F A-
 Mon, Feb 2 82 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 53% +6  92% 18 - 3 13 - 1 B +11 D -6 D+ D+ A+ A+ +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 246 Lamar W 84 - 74 87% +10  89% 19 - 3 14 - 1 C+ +2 B+ +9 A D- A+ D- -7 F+ C+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 307 East Texas A&M W 74 - 70 93% +2  54% 20 - 3 15 - 1 D+ -8 C- -2 D D B D -6 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 146 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 66 - 57 53% +5  96% 21 - 3 16 - 1 B+ +13 C +1 D- C- A- A+ +13 A B A-
 Mon, Feb 16 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78 - 68 64% +13  99% 22 - 3 17 - 1 B +11 B+ +9 B- F+ A+ B- +2 B- C D+
 Sat, Feb 21 250 Nicholls St. W 81 - 78 88% +4  83% 23 - 3 18 - 1 D+ -5 B +6 F+ A+ A+ F -11 F B B+
 Mon, Feb 23 199 New Orleans L 73 - 77 82% -7  2% 23 - 4 18 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 F B+ A+ D -5 F+ C B+
 Sat, Feb 28 290 @Houston Christian W 77 - 56 80% +18  98% 24 - 4 19 - 2 A- +17 B+ +9 D A A- A +10 A+ F D+
 Mon, Mar 2 265 @Incarnate Word W 76 - 68 77% +2  66% 25 - 4 20 - 2 B- +5 B+ +9 B- C+ B C- -3 C F F
Totals 25 - 4 20 - 2 +5 C+ +2 A- C D B- +3 B- D- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D C B- C 33% 43% 40% D C- C+ C C+ A- F+ D- F B- B- D- B+ B- 42% 21% 38% C- B- C+ D+ C C C+ C- C+
1.11 53% 39% 36% 0 -1 0.99 33% 1.0 .33 13% .23 67% .15 1.05 55% 44% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 17% .28 74% .17
Nov
7		 Arkansas St. B+ F A+ D- B- 27% 29% 44% F+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% D+ A+ A+ D+ A C- F D- F
1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17 0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43
Nov
11		 Rice B B C+ A+ B+ 24% 33% 43% D B- F A+ C B- A- C B+ B+ A+ B+ F B 28% 43% 28% A B+ C+ A+ A F F B- F
1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30 1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39
Nov
14		 Abilene Christian C+ F A+ A+ D+ 43% 17% 40% C D+ F A+ C- A+ C F F C C+ B- A+ B 47% 35% 18% B+ B C+ B+ B F+ C F D-
1.13 35% 50% 53% +3 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25 0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28
Nov
18		 Fresno St. B+ B- F+ D+ C+ 41% 23% 36% C C+ A+ C+ A+ B- F F F D- F+ F F F 55% 21% 23% D- F D+ D- D- B- D- A+ B-
1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05 1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20
Nov
21		 Pepperdine F C- A+ F F 33% 11% 56% C- F C- A+ A- C+ F A+ F A+ A+ C D+ B+ 38% 24% 38% C+ B A F C+ A- B- F D
0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02 0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25
Nov
29		 Texas Arlington C- F B F+ D+ 41% 37% 22% D D+ B+ F C C+ F B F C- A+ F F C- 59% 15% 26% F D+ F+ A B- C+ F F F
0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12 1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41
Dec
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F+ D- C+ D 26% 36% 38% F F+ D A- C A+ B C B A+ A A- A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% D+ A+ B A+ A+ F D C D+
1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28 0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
7		 Louisiana Monroe B A+ F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- A- D+ D+ D A D- F F+ D B- A- A+ A+ 46% 18% 37% D- A F+ F F F F+ F F
1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12 1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30
Dec
17		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F A+ C+ 45% 29% 26% D C C- B- C B+ A+ F A+ B B+ A- A- A- 50% 17% 33% D- B F C+ D- C+ F A+ D-
1.08 59% 18% 50% +1 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 17% .72 55% .40 0.94 48% 29% 29% -10 +1 0.86 38% 0.9 .35 19% .48 56% .27
Dec
29		 East Texas A&M B- F A+ B- C- 25% 27% 47% F D B D- C+ B+ C- C- C- A+ A+ B- F+ B- 30% 26% 45% A B B+ A+ A+ A- D A+ A+
1.16 38% 50% 38% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 14% .30 71% .21 0.74 36% 33% 38% -5 -1 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 22% .28 29% .08
Dec
31		 Northwestern St. C+ B B F D+ 46% 18% 36% C+ C- C+ F F+ B+ B- D+ C+ B B- C- A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% F B- A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25 0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27
Jan
3		 SE Louisiana C+ F B C D 28% 32% 40% F D- A F C+ B- D+ B C B D+ B+ B+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A B- B+ F F+ C A+ F B
1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27 0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18
Jan
5		 McNeese St. B- F A+ D D+ 35% 17% 48% C D+ B- B+ B+ C F F F B D+ F B+ D+ 33% 16% 51% C+ D+ F+ A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09 1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Houston Christian A+ B A+ C- C 40% 8% 52% B C+ A+ F B A+ F+ A+ D D F D- B- F 45% 17% 38% D- F C- C+ C A F F F
1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18 1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29
Jan
12		 Incarnate Word F F F F F 39% 27% 33% F+ F B- C- C+ C- B- F F+ A+ B B A+ A+ 53% 24% 22% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B C B C+
0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22 0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18
Jan
17		 New Orleans A- C+ A A+ A 38% 28% 34% D- A- B F F A+ A+ D+ A D+ C F C F 30% 37% 33% A+ F+ C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33 1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11
Jan
19		 Nicholls St. B+ A B A+ A 35% 20% 46% D A A F F C+ B C+ B A- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% B A+ F B+ D- C- D+ F F+
1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30 0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
24		 Lamar A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 36% 47% F A+ F B+ D- A+ D C+ D+ F F D+ B D- 29% 27% 44% D D- D+ F F C- D F F
1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -3 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25 1.21 67% 43% 30% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23
Jan
27		 Northwestern St. F F+ F+ C- F 30% 36% 34% F F F A+ C- B+ D F F+ B A+ B C A+ 43% 31% 26% C- A C- F D- D- A+ B+ A+
0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18 0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15
Jan
31		 SE Louisiana A+ A F A+ A+ 24% 22% 53% D A+ B+ A+ A+ A F F F C+ A B+ D C 33% 33% 35% B+ C+ D+ F F A- D F F+
1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14 0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 McNeese St. D F A+ C+ C- 33% 24% 43% D D+ C+ F+ D+ A+ D A- C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ D+ F F A+ C C C
0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28 0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22
Feb
7		 Lamar B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A F A- D- A+ C- A+ B D- A+ F D+ F 28% 46% 26% A F+ B+ D+ C+ D C+ F C-
1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30 1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17
Feb
9		 East Texas A&M C- C F B- D 47% 22% 31% D+ D B- F D B B F+ C D F D- D F 32% 15% 53% C F A+ D A+ B+ C D C-
1.11 58% 18% 38% -3 0 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 15% .35 65% .23 1.05 87% 43% 36% +11 0 1.26 8% 1.0 .08 21% .25 69% .17
Feb
14		 UT Rio Grande Valley C D+ A- F F+ 38% 23% 38% C- D- A F C- A- A- D- B A+ B F A+ A 33% 20% 48% B- A C- A+ B A- C B- C+
1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27 0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16
Feb
16		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B+ D B- A+ B- 48% 20% 32% C+ B- C- F F+ A+ C+ D+ C B- B F A+ B 44% 16% 40% D+ B- C C+ C D+ A+ F A-
1.16 54% 40% 44% +3 +1 1.10 27% 0.7 .19 9% .43 69% .29 1.01 50% 56% 23% -7 +1 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
21		 Nicholls St. B C- F C- F+ 31% 8% 61% C+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F D- A+ F F 41% 10% 49% D- F A+ F B B+ A- F C+
1.22 60% 0% 33% -3 +1 0.98 36% 1.8 .64 15% .32 67% .21 1.17 65% 20% 50% +13 +2 1.31 12% 1.7 .20 20% .21 82% .17
Feb
23		 New Orleans D+ F F F F 55% 26% 19% C F A- C+ B+ A+ B- A+ A- D D+ F A+ D- 52% 20% 27% F F+ F A C B+ F F F
1.08 45% 29% 20% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.1 .44 7% .38 83% .32 1.13 61% 67% 25% +4 +1 1.11 43% 0.8 .36 22% .45 88% .40
Feb
28		 Houston Christian B+ C+ D C D+ 33% 19% 48% D D B A A A- D+ B+ C A C F A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% C- A+ C+ F F D+ C+ B+ B-
1.23 63% 33% 35% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.3 .50 14% .26 79% .21 0.89 57% 45% 0% -16 0 0.71 27% 1.5 .41 16% .27 64% .17
Mar
2		 Incarnate Word B+ C B- A+ A 21% 34% 45% F B- C+ C C+ B F F+ F C- F F A+ B- 44% 15% 41% F C A+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.26 60% 44% 48% +11 -3 1.19 34% 1.1 .38 13% .29 67% .19 1.13 67% 50% 18% -4 +1 0.96 20% 2.1 .43 7% .16 33% .05



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 37.0% 37.0% 0.0% 12.3 1.0 23.4 12.1 0.4 63.0 0.0%
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 37.0% 37.0% 0.0% 12.3 63.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 37.0% 100.0% 12.3 2.8 63.3 32.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 40.9% 0.0% 11.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.1%