Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#135
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#137
Pace71.9#84
Improvement+1.0#73

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#162
First Shot-1.0#217
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#76
Layup/Dunks+1.3#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#329
Freethrows+0.8#114
Improvement-0.7#301

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#130
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#121
Layups/Dunks+0.7#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#106
Freethrows-1.2#274
Improvement+1.7#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.3% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 98.3% 99.7% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.7% 97.6%
Conference Champion 9.5% 18.2% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.8% 9.3% 7.0%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 37 - 48 - 9
Quad 48 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb W 86-71 71%     1 - 0 +11.1 +16.5 -5.2
  Nov 15, 2022 289   Alcorn St. L 60-69 86%     1 - 1 -18.5 -18.0 -0.4
  Nov 19, 2022 200   @ South Dakota St. W 93-82 52%     2 - 1 +12.2 +16.1 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2022 133   Quinnipiac L 44-58 50%     2 - 2 -12.1 -27.8 +15.9
  Nov 26, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee L 63-75 47%     2 - 3 -9.3 -10.3 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 75-58 51%     3 - 3 +18.7 +8.9 +10.1
  Dec 01, 2022 225   Northwestern St. L 96-102 77%     3 - 4 -11.7 +11.9 -23.2
  Dec 14, 2022 137   @ Louisiana Tech W 80-79 OT 40%     4 - 4 +5.5 -0.5 +5.9
  Dec 17, 2022 87   Furman L 70-72 35%     4 - 5 +3.8 -0.8 +4.5
  Dec 22, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 80-69 90%     5 - 5 -1.2 +2.2 -3.3
  Dec 29, 2022 218   Abilene Christian W 75-68 75%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +2.0 +1.7 +0.5
  Dec 31, 2022 274   @ Texas Arlington W 66-62 68%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +0.9 +1.4 +0.1
  Jan 04, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 69-60 69%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +5.6 -0.5 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2023 116   Grand Canyon W 73-68 57%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +5.1 +4.3 +1.2
  Jan 12, 2023 211   @ Utah Tech W 85-72 55%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +13.7 +8.5 +4.4
  Jan 14, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 58-67 35%     10 - 6 5 - 1 -3.1 -13.3 +10.1
  Jan 19, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-76 24%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +4.3 +5.6 -1.4
  Jan 25, 2023 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-66 84%     11 - 7 6 - 2 +8.0 -5.8 +11.6
  Jan 28, 2023 142   Seattle W 79-65 61%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +12.9 +1.8 +10.0
  Feb 01, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. L 67-73 49%     12 - 8 7 - 3 -3.9 -8.3 +4.6
  Feb 04, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 11, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 15, 2023 187   Tarleton St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 73-63 84%    
  Feb 22, 2023 218   @ Abilene Christian W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 26, 2023 156   California Baptist W 69-65 66%    
  Mar 01, 2023 82   Sam Houston St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 03, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 68-74 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.7 1.1 9.5 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 8.0 1.8 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 11.1 4.7 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 9.7 9.4 0.7 20.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 6.1 10.4 2.1 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.6 2.2 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.5 6.2 16.0 24.9 26.8 16.8 6.6 1.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 71.6% 4.7    1.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.2% 3.4    0.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 2.9 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 15.8% 15.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 6.6% 13.2% 13.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.7
13-5 16.8% 10.2% 10.2% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 15.0
12-6 26.8% 8.3% 8.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 24.6
11-7 24.9% 6.9% 6.9% 14.3 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 23.2
10-8 16.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 15.2
9-9 6.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
8-10 1.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
7-11 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.1 1.5 0.2 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 15.8% 12.3 2.0 7.3 6.0 0.5
Lose Out 0.1% 2.7% 16.0 2.7