Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#136
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Pace67.5#232
Improvement-1.8#291

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#176
First Shot-3.9#291
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#21
Layup/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows-5.0#363
Improvement-1.1#266

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#106
First Shot+0.8#137
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#88
Layups/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#11
Freethrows-2.8#336
Improvement-0.7#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 18.7% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 97.6% 98.9% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.2% 89.2%
Conference Champion 21.5% 25.1% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.0% 18.6% 12.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 133 Arkansas St. W 90-65 61%     1 - 0 +23.7 +10.5 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 11 230 @Rice W 81-69 62%     2 - 0 +10.7 +10.4 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 14 209 Abilene Christian W 76-66 77%     3 - 0 +3.8 +5.7 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 186 @Fresno St. L 78-80 52%     3 - 1 -0.8 +8.5 -9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 267 @Pepperdine W 63-60 66%     4 - 1 +0.3 -6.3 +6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 180 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 50%     4 - 2 -3.3 -0.3 -3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 192 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 74%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +7.9 +0.4 +7.8
  Sun, Dec 7 359 Louisiana Monroe W 96-76 96%     6 - 2 +2.1 +10.2 -8.9
  Wed, Dec 17 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-60 78%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +2.4 +2.6 +0.7
  Mon, Dec 29 305 @East Texas A&M W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Dec 31 275 @Northwestern St. W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 268 @SE Louisiana W 70-66 66%    
  Mon, Jan 5 70 @McNeese St. L 65-74 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 Houston Christian W 75-64 85%    
  Mon, Jan 12 164 Incarnate Word W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 242 @New Orleans W 76-73 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 232 @Nicholls St. W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @Lamar W 69-65 64%    
  Mon, Jan 26 275 Northwestern St. W 76-65 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 268 SE Louisiana W 73-63 83%    
  Mon, Feb 2 70 McNeese St. L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 255 Lamar W 72-62 81%    
  Mon, Feb 9 305 East Texas A&M W 79-66 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 192 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 53%    
  Mon, Feb 16 215 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 232 Nicholls St. W 76-67 79%    
  Mon, Feb 23 242 New Orleans W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 281 @Houston Christian W 72-67 67%    
  Mon, Mar 2 164 @Incarnate Word L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.0 5.5 5.3 3.3 1.0 0.2 21.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.8 8.1 10.4 8.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 37.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.2 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.3 6.9 9.4 12.4 14.1 14.3 13.0 9.8 6.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
20-2 98.1% 3.3    2.9 0.4
19-3 82.5% 5.3    3.9 1.3 0.0
18-4 55.6% 5.5    3.3 2.0 0.1
17-5 31.1% 4.0    2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0
16-6 12.2% 1.8    0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
15-7 3.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 14.0 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 55.1% 55.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
21-1 1.0% 45.4% 45.4% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6
20-2 3.4% 42.0% 42.0% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.0
19-3 6.4% 33.6% 33.6% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3
18-4 9.8% 29.2% 29.2% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 7.0
17-5 13.0% 24.5% 24.5% 13.3 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.1 9.8
16-6 14.3% 18.6% 18.6% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.7
15-7 14.1% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 12.2
14-8 12.4% 9.9% 9.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 11.1
13-9 9.4% 6.2% 6.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.8
12-10 6.9% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
11-11 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-12 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-13 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-14 0.7% 0.7
7-15 0.3% 0.3
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.8 5.3 1.6 0.1 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 3.7 3.7 66.7 25.9