IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.5	#201
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#165

Pace	68.1	#208
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#277

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.8%	13.1%	6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.6	14.6

.500 or above	60.6%	75.9%	46.9%
.500 or above in Conference	66.3%	76.2%	57.6%
Conference Champion	11.1%	15.1%	7.6%
Last Place in Conference	5.5%	3.5%	7.4%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	9.6%	13.0%	6.7%
Second Round	0.7%	1.1%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 7	4 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 6	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	131	Arkansas St.	L	71-72	47%
Nov 11, 2025	168	@ Rice	L	66-70	34%
Nov 14, 2025	178	Abilene Christian	W	70-68	55%
Nov 18, 2025	232	@ Fresno St.	L	71-73	43%
Nov 21, 2025	255	@ Pepperdine	L	69-70	46%
Nov 29, 2025	202	@ Texas Arlington	L	67-70	40%
Dec 03, 2025	247	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	74-69	66%
Dec 07, 2025	359	Louisiana Monroe	W	76-63	88%
Dec 17, 2025	215	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	69-65	61%
Dec 29, 2025	334	@ East Texas A&M	W	68-64	63%
Dec 31, 2025	279	@ Northwestern St.	W	67-66	52%
Jan 03, 2026	259	@ SE Louisiana	L	68-69	48%
Jan 05, 2026	105	@ McNeese St.	L	61-70	22%
Jan 10, 2026	270	Houston Christian	W	69-63	70%
Jan 12, 2026	226	Incarnate Word	W	70-66	64%
Jan 17, 2026	246	@ New Orleans	L	71-72	44%
Jan 19, 2026	233	@ Nicholls St.	L	67-68	44%
Jan 24, 2026	213	@ Lamar	L	64-66	42%
Jan 26, 2026	279	Northwestern St.	W	70-63	71%
Jan 31, 2026	259	SE Louisiana	W	71-65	68%
Feb 02, 2026	105	McNeese St.	L	64-67	38%
Feb 07, 2026	213	Lamar	W	67-63	60%
Feb 09, 2026	334	East Texas A&M	W	71-61	78%
Feb 14, 2026	247	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	71-72	48%
Feb 16, 2026	215	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	66-68	43%
Feb 21, 2026	233	Nicholls St.	W	70-65	64%
Feb 23, 2026	246	New Orleans	W	74-69	67%
Feb 28, 2026	270	@ Houston Christian	W	66-65	51%
Mar 02, 2026	226	@ Incarnate Word	L	67-69	42%
Projected Record						16 - 13	12 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-22	1-21	2-20	3-19	4-18	5-17	6-16	7-15	8-14	9-13	10-12	11-11	12-10	13-9	14-8	15-7	16-6	17-5	18-4	19-3	20-2	21-1	22-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.4	1.4	2.6	2.6	2.6	1.0	0.3	0.1		11.1	1st
2nd														0.3	1.4	3.0	2.9	2.9	1.6	0.2	0.1				12.4	2nd
3rd													0.3	2.2	4.5	3.5	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0					12.1	3rd
4th												0.5	2.1	5.1	2.7	1.1									11.5	4th
5th											0.3	2.7	4.2	2.6	0.7										10.4	5th
6th										0.2	2.0	3.8	2.2	0.2											8.4	6th
7th									0.3	1.4	2.7	2.0	0.6	0.0											7.1	7th
8th								0.3	1.1	2.9	2.1	0.4													6.7	8th
9th							0.4	1.4	2.2	1.8	0.5														6.4	9th
10th					0.1	0.5	1.3	2.3	1.4	0.3															6.0	10th
11th			0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.5	1.0	0.2																4.4	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.5	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.0																	3.7	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.8	0.6	1.9	2.1	3.7	5.0	5.1	6.7	7.6	9.3	9.5	10.4	9.3	8.1	5.5	5.7	4.2	2.8	1.1	0.3	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
22-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
21-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3
20-2	90.0%	1.0		1.0	0.0
19-3	91.8%	2.6		2.1	0.5
18-4	61.4%	2.6		2.1	0.5	0.0
17-5	45.6%	2.6		1.4	1.0	0.1	0.0
16-6	26.4%	1.4		0.6	0.6	0.2
15-7	5.2%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.2
14-8	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0
13-9	0.0%
12-10	0.0%
11-11	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		7.7	2.8	0.6	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
22-0	0.1%		34.5%	34.5%		10.2											0.0			0.0				0.1
21-1	0.3%		87.5%	87.5%		11.9												0.1	0.1	0.1				0.0
20-2	1.1%		50.0%	50.0%		12.7												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1			0.6
19-3	2.8%		47.2%	47.2%		12.9												0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3			1.5
18-4	4.2%		43.2%	43.2%		13.5													0.2	0.7	0.6	0.3		2.4
17-5	5.7%		22.9%	22.9%		14.2													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	4.4
16-6	5.5%		23.0%	23.0%		14.1													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.0	4.2
15-7	8.1%		13.2%	13.2%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.3	7.0
14-8	9.3%		10.1%	10.1%		14.9														0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	8.4
13-9	10.4%		6.6%	6.6%		15.0														0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	9.7
12-10	9.5%		4.4%	4.4%		15.5																0.2	0.2	9.1
11-11	9.3%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.2
10-12	7.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
9-13	6.7%																							6.7
8-14	5.1%																							5.1
7-15	5.0%																							5.0
6-16	3.7%																							3.7
5-17	2.1%																							2.1
4-18	1.9%																							1.9
3-19	0.6%																							0.6
2-20	0.8%																							0.8
1-21	0.1%																							0.1
0-22	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	14.0											0.0	0.2	0.9	2.4	2.8	2.2	1.2	90.2		0.0%