TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#245
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#278
Pace72.2#79
Improvement-1.2#314

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#184
First Shot-1.4#231
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#91
Layup/Dunks-1.7#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
Freethrows-0.4#202
Improvement+0.0#198

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#295
First Shot-5.4#332
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#64
Layups/Dunks+1.3#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#325
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement-1.2#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 26.7% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 81.1% 88.9% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.6% 96.3%
Conference Champion 27.2% 33.7% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.9% 12.6% 13.5%
First Round18.1% 20.6% 12.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 414 - 815 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 55   @ Mississippi St. L 44-63 7%     0 - 1 -6.7 -17.5 +10.4
  Nov 11, 2022 312   Texas San Antonio W 75-55 74%     1 - 1 +9.1 -4.8 +13.9
  Nov 17, 2022 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 97-75 68%     2 - 1 +13.0 +12.9 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-73 64%     2 - 2 -18.0 -9.7 -8.6
  Nov 23, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 98-67 60%     3 - 2 +24.2 +19.5 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2022 175   @ UTEP L 67-72 25%     3 - 3 -2.4 -2.9 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2022 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 82-89 47%     3 - 4 -10.6 +1.0 -11.1
  Dec 13, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 61-99 3%     3 - 5 -19.5 -9.0 -7.3
  Dec 20, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 58-81 5%     3 - 6 -8.3 -6.6 -0.6
  Dec 31, 2022 225   @ Northwestern St. W 65-59 35%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +5.7 -5.8 +11.8
  Jan 04, 2023 344   Incarnate Word W 91-61 83%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +15.4 +9.3 +5.3
  Jan 07, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word W 80-71 68%     6 - 6 3 - 0 -0.1 +1.9 -2.2
  Jan 12, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 82-85 OT 66%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -11.5 -8.3 -2.8
  Jan 14, 2023 348   New Orleans W 97-79 84%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +3.0 +10.2 -8.2
  Jan 19, 2023 357   @ Lamar L 66-68 79%     7 - 8 4 - 2 -14.8 -12.9 -1.8
  Jan 21, 2023 350   @ Houston Christian L 78-90 70%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -21.8 -3.3 -18.3
  Jan 26, 2023 250   Nicholls St. W 96-86 62%     8 - 9 5 - 3 +2.5 +21.3 -18.6
  Jan 28, 2023 339   McNeese St. W 83-72 81%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -2.7 +2.9 -5.3
  Feb 02, 2023 348   @ New Orleans W 82-77 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 09, 2023 350   Houston Christian W 84-73 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 357   Lamar W 80-66 91%    
  Feb 16, 2023 250   @ Nicholls St. L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 339   @ McNeese St. W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 23, 2023 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 225   Northwestern St. W 75-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 319   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-71 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.2 11.8 9.8 2.3 27.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 12.0 8.0 0.7 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 9.9 9.5 0.9 21.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.8 8.5 1.3 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.0 0.7 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.0 12.5 21.6 26.0 20.7 10.5 2.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
14-4 93.2% 9.8    6.7 2.9 0.2
13-5 57.1% 11.8    3.6 5.7 2.3 0.2
12-6 12.4% 3.2    0.2 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.2% 27.2 12.8 9.6 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.3% 50.4% 50.4% 15.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.1
14-4 10.5% 39.8% 39.8% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.7 6.3
13-5 20.7% 31.5% 31.5% 15.8 0.0 1.1 5.4 14.2
12-6 26.0% 24.8% 24.8% 15.9 0.0 0.5 5.9 19.5
11-7 21.6% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 0.1 3.9 17.6
10-8 12.5% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7 10.8
9-9 5.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.4 4.5
8-10 1.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.2
7-11 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.4 3.8 20.3 75.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 50.4% 15.0 9.5 33.4 7.4