TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #211
Pace 66.5 #244
Improvement -0.4 #202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #292 D- C- C C C
Defense #114 C C+ B+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 0.98 #349 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #95 0.70 #279 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 30% #355 0.95 #271 -6.8 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #334 -5.8 #334
Freethrows 0.35 #55 65% #354 0.23 #158
Second Chance 29.8% #209 0.95 #292 0.28 #255
Turnovers 17.4% #208
Total Offense -4.6 #292

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.19 #230 -2.7 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.72 #110 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 38% #266 0.95 #88 +2.7 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #156 +0.6 #157
Freethrows 0.39 #356 72% #147 0.28 #350
Second Chance 30.2% #164 0.99 #123 0.30 #142
Turnovers 20.6% #26
Total Defense +1.8 #114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #186 0.6% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.4% #344 -1.7% #143
Possession Length 18.3 #279 17.0 #137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #142 0.18 #214
Improvement +0.2 #162 -0.6 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 18.4% 30.3% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 95.2% 76.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round2.3% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 39 @SMU L 58 - 69 5% -2  0 - 1 +5 -8 F D B+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 226 @Tarleton St. L 77 - 85 42% -13  0 - 2 -9 +6 F+ C A -15 F F C
 Tue, Nov 11 12 @Kansas L 46 - 77 2% -19  0 - 3 -9 -16 F+ D- D +7 D B A+
 Sun, Nov 16 56 @Oklahoma St. L 69 - 85 8% -9  0 - 4 -3 -6 F D+ C+ +4 C+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 84 @Xavier L 67 - 88 13% -12  0 - 5 -11 -6 F D A -4 C B F
 Sat, Dec 6 190 @Lamar W 57 - 49 36% +1  1 - 5 1 - 0 +9 -5 D- C D- +15 A- A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 69 17% -1  1 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -1 D C+ D+ -1 C- C+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 249 Nicholls St. L 71 - 76 69% -3  1 - 7 1 - 2 -13 +3 B C D+ -17 F F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 210 New Orleans W 83 - 69 62% +6  2 - 7 2 - 2 +8 +6 F A+ B- +2 B B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 178 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 63 - 59 33% +1  3 - 7 3 - 2 +6 -1 D- A C- +7 A+ A- C
 Mon, Jan 5 304 @Houston Christian W 81 - 65 60% +8  4 - 7 4 - 2 +11 +5 D+ B+ B- +6 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 275 @Northwestern St. L 78 - 79 52% +7  4 - 8 4 - 3 -4 +5 C F+ A -10 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 313 @East Texas A&M W 61 - 50 63% +5  5 - 8 5 - 3 +5 -9 F B- F +15 A+ C- B
 Sat, Jan 17 280 SE Louisiana W 68 - 56 75% +14  6 - 8 6 - 3 +2 -7 C- C F +9 C B- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 87 McNeese St. L 53 - 69 28% -6  6 - 9 6 - 4 -13 -9 D F A -7 B F A
 Sat, Jan 24 247 @Incarnate Word W 79 - 71 46% +10  7 - 9 7 - 4 +6 +6 C+ B+ F+ +1 D- B A+
 Mon, Jan 26 178 UT Rio Grande Valley L 55 - 64 56% -3  7 - 10 7 - 5 -13 -13 F F+ D -1 B+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 31 304 Houston Christian W 73 - 71 79% +0  8 - 10 8 - 5 -9 +4 C+ F C- -13 F A+ C+
 Mon, Feb 2 247 Incarnate Word L 69 - 71 69% -4  8 - 11 8 - 6 -10 -4 D F C -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Nicholls St. L 69 - 70 47%
 Mon, Feb 9 210 @New Orleans L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 Lamar W 67 - 65 57%
 Mon, Feb 16 104 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 69 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 87 @McNeese St. L 63 - 75 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 280 @SE Louisiana W 66 - 65 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 Northwestern St. W 72 - 65 73%
 Mon, Mar 2 313 East Texas A&M W 73 - 64 81%
Totals 12 - 15 12 - 10 -3 -5 D- C- C +2 C C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 12.0 9.8 2.9 0.2 28.4 3rd
4th 1.7 12.3 8.5 1.2 0.0 23.8 4th
5th 0.6 7.9 9.8 1.0 19.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.1 9.4 2.0 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.9 2.5 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 3.1 11.2 21.6 27.6 21.5 11.1 3.2 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.3% 12.9% 12.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 3.2% 7.5% 7.5% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
14-8 11.1% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 10.4
13-9 21.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 20.9
12-10 27.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 27.2
11-11 21.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 21.3
10-12 11.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.1
9-13 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
8-14 0.5% 0.5
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%