TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#318
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#121
Pace72.0#100
Improvement+1.0#88

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#323
First Shot-6.2#329
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#154
Layup/Dunks+0.5#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.0#353
Freethrows+2.4#45
Improvement-0.4#230

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#276
First Shot-0.2#175
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#323
Layups/Dunks+4.1#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#255
Freethrows-3.9#339
Improvement+1.4#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 19.5% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.1 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 65.9% 81.6% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 82.2% 73.9%
Conference Champion 19.5% 24.4% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 3.1% 6.1%
First Four12.1% 15.1% 10.7%
First Round8.0% 11.3% 6.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 10 - 4
Quad 414 - 814 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 80   @ Texas A&M L 65-86 5%     0 - 1 -11.2 +3.6 -16.4
  Nov 16, 2021 336   IUPUI W 65-59 63%     1 - 1 -6.2 -13.9 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2021 326   Denver W 69-67 54%     2 - 1 -7.9 -6.2 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2021 300   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-58 34%     3 - 1 +14.5 -1.7 +15.7
  Dec 01, 2021 286   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 32%    
  Dec 08, 2021 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 11, 2021 335   @ Nebraska Omaha W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 14, 2021 94   @ Minnesota L 59-77 5%    
  Dec 18, 2021 319   Lamar W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 22, 2021 63   @ Notre Dame L 62-81 4%    
  Jan 06, 2022 344   Northwestern St. W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 350   Incarnate Word W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 20, 2022 328   McNeese St. W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 353   Houston Baptist W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 327   @ SE Louisiana L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 344   @ Northwestern St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 03, 2022 285   New Orleans W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 10, 2022 285   @ New Orleans L 75-80 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 233   @ Nicholls St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 17, 2022 327   SE Louisiana W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 344   Northwestern St. W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 328   @ McNeese St. L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 353   @ Houston Baptist W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 02, 2022 233   Nicholls St. L 71-73 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 350   @ Incarnate Word W 72-69 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 8 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.9 5.4 5.3 3.5 1.8 19.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 5.3 8.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.3 7.3 2.7 0.3 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.9 5.5 1.3 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 2.3 1.8 0.3 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.7 8th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.4 10.0 12.8 13.5 14.4 14.2 10.2 6.2 3.5 1.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
13-1 98.8% 3.5    3.2 0.3
12-2 86.0% 5.3    3.7 1.6 0.0
11-3 52.7% 5.4    2.5 2.4 0.5
10-4 20.3% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
9-5 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 11.9 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.8% 48.2% 48.2% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9
13-1 3.5% 40.2% 40.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.1
12-2 6.2% 37.3% 37.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2 3.9
11-3 10.2% 27.6% 27.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8 7.4
10-4 14.2% 23.7% 23.7% 16.0 3.4 10.9
9-5 14.4% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 2.0 12.4
8-6 13.5% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.1 12.4
7-7 12.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 12.2
6-8 10.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.7
5-9 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-10 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-11 1.9% 1.9
2-12 0.7% 0.7
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.2 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%