Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#233
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#145
Pace74.9#55
Improvement-1.7#301

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#252
First Shot-3.3#273
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#129
Layup/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#215
Freethrows-3.4#340
Improvement+0.1#160

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#202
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#182
Layups/Dunks+1.5#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#108
Freethrows-4.1#342
Improvement-1.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.8% 41.4% 28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 88.6% 89.3% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 95.3% 93.8%
Conference Champion 49.8% 50.3% 39.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.9%
First Four21.0% 21.0% 20.7%
First Round30.4% 31.1% 16.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 415 - 416 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 112   @ Northern Iowa W 62-58 17%     1 - 0 +10.6 -5.6 +16.4
  Nov 15, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 60-89 2%     1 - 1 -7.2 -8.9 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2021 90   @ TCU L 50-63 12%     1 - 2 -4.0 -15.2 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2021 316   Cal Poly W 75-72 OT 70%     2 - 2 -5.8 -7.1 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2021 152   Utah Valley L 63-74 34%     2 - 3 -10.2 -7.3 -3.3
  Dec 09, 2021 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 86-68 95%    
  Dec 15, 2021 29   @ Wisconsin L 57-76 4%    
  Dec 18, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 21, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. L 65-74 20%    
  Dec 29, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 62-89 0.5%   
  Jan 15, 2022 285   @ New Orleans L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 344   Northwestern St. W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 327   SE Louisiana W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 328   @ McNeese St. W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 353   @ Houston Baptist W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 03, 2022 350   @ Incarnate Word W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 350   Incarnate Word W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 17, 2022 328   McNeese St. W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 353   Houston Baptist W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 24, 2022 344   @ Northwestern St. W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 327   @ SE Louisiana W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 02, 2022 318   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 285   New Orleans W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.8 12.6 15.7 11.2 4.7 49.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.1 9.5 6.6 1.4 0.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.8 5.3 2.3 0.3 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 1.1 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.6 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.6 5.6 8.2 12.2 16.6 19.5 17.1 11.3 4.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.7    4.7
13-1 99.6% 11.2    10.5 0.7
12-2 91.7% 15.7    12.6 3.1 0.0
11-3 64.8% 12.6    7.4 4.6 0.6
10-4 28.9% 4.8    1.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
9-5 5.8% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 49.8% 49.8 36.3 11.2 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.7% 68.5% 68.5% 15.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.5
13-1 11.3% 64.3% 64.3% 15.5 0.1 0.4 2.9 3.9 4.0
12-2 17.1% 55.8% 55.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.7 7.6
11-3 19.5% 47.6% 47.6% 15.9 0.0 0.6 8.7 10.2
10-4 16.6% 35.3% 35.3% 16.0 0.1 5.8 10.8
9-5 12.2% 26.9% 26.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2 8.9
8-6 8.2% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 1.4 6.8
7-7 5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.6 5.0
6-8 2.6% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.2 2.4
5-9 1.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.3
4-10 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-11 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.2 7.1 32.5 59.2 0.0%