Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#250
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#263
Pace73.6#52
Improvement-0.3#215

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#265
First Shot-4.2#307
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#78
Layup/Dunks+0.8#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#280
Freethrows-3.6#359
Improvement+0.3#120

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#235
First Shot-1.4#227
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#230
Layups/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#87
Freethrows-5.1#362
Improvement-0.6#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 22.5% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 53.6% 65.2% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 99.2% 95.0%
Conference Champion 18.5% 23.9% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four13.7% 13.5% 14.1%
First Round13.7% 15.7% 9.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 412 - 413 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 75-117 3%     0 - 1 -23.5 -5.4 -9.4
  Nov 10, 2022 139   @ Wyoming L 68-79 19%     0 - 2 -6.6 -11.7 +6.3
  Nov 19, 2022 81   @ BYU L 73-87 10%     0 - 3 -4.7 +1.1 -4.6
  Nov 25, 2022 100   UC Irvine L 56-83 19%     0 - 4 -22.4 -19.0 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2022 216   San Diego W 72-70 41%     1 - 4 -0.3 -4.0 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2022 53   @ Texas Tech L 71-78 6%     1 - 5 +5.6 -0.2 +6.2
  Dec 15, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 88-73 64%     2 - 5 1 - 0 +6.5 +3.1 +2.6
  Dec 17, 2022 55   @ Mississippi St. L 66-68 7%     2 - 6 +10.3 +2.7 +7.6
  Dec 28, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 56-85 3%     2 - 7 -11.5 -17.8 +9.6
  Jan 05, 2023 319   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 66-63 56%     3 - 7 2 - 0 -3.1 -3.2 +0.3
  Jan 07, 2023 225   @ Northwestern St. L 48-68 33%     3 - 8 2 - 1 -20.3 -21.8 -0.4
  Jan 12, 2023 357   @ Lamar L 66-69 78%     3 - 9 2 - 2 -15.8 -9.7 -6.2
  Jan 14, 2023 225   Northwestern St. W 77-63 54%     4 - 9 3 - 2 +8.3 +0.9 +7.5
  Jan 19, 2023 339   McNeese St. W 73-64 80%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -4.7 -1.9 -1.9
  Jan 21, 2023 339   @ McNeese St. W 71-68 64%     6 - 9 5 - 2 -5.3 -4.1 -1.0
  Jan 26, 2023 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 86-96 38%     6 - 10 5 - 3 -11.6 +11.7 -23.4
  Jan 28, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word L 67-69 66%     6 - 11 5 - 4 -11.1 -6.3 -4.9
  Feb 04, 2023 350   @ Houston Christian W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 09, 2023 348   New Orleans W 83-73 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 16, 2023 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 344   Incarnate Word W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 20, 2023 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 23, 2023 348   @ New Orleans W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 350   Houston Christian W 83-72 84%    
  Mar 01, 2023 357   Lamar W 78-65 90%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.0 9.9 5.6 18.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 12.7 8.3 0.6 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 11.1 10.7 1.2 24.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.6 9.6 1.6 0.0 21.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.9 14.4 24.0 28.0 19.4 6.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 90.0% 5.6    3.6 1.9 0.1
13-5 50.8% 9.9    2.6 4.9 2.1 0.3
12-6 10.6% 3.0    0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 6.4 7.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.2% 37.8% 37.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.8 3.8
13-5 19.4% 29.1% 29.1% 15.8 0.0 1.0 4.6 13.8
12-6 28.0% 22.4% 22.4% 16.0 0.1 6.2 21.7
11-7 24.0% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.0 4.1 19.9
10-8 14.4% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 1.7 12.7
9-9 5.9% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.5 5.4
8-10 1.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.7
7-11 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6 17.9 79.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 37.8% 15.3 0.0 1.5 23.3 12.9