SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #298
Pace 65.4 #266
Improvement +2.3 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #343 D- D C- C D+
Defense #148 C C- B F+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.14 #194 -2.4 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #89 0.65 #331 +0.2 #168
Three Pointers 40% #201 0.85 #354 -3.7 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #333 -5.9 #334
Freethrows 0.33 #116 69% #298 0.23 #168
Second Chance 26.5% #295 0.91 #316 0.24 #326
Turnovers 18.3% #268
Total Offense -7.1 #343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.20 #238 +0.2 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.73 #126 +0.0 #191
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.04 #225 -0.9 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #204 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 0.38 #340 74% #285 0.28 #350
Second Chance 31.2% #215 1.10 #293 0.34 #258
Turnovers 19.7% #44
Total Defense +0.6 #148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #291 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.1% #333 2.0% #224
Possession Length 17.9 #245 17.5 #224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #251 0.21 #307
Improvement +0.1 #173 +2.2 #71

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 19.1% 44.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 14
Quad 47 - 79 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 5% -12  0 - 1 -18 -5 D+ F C- -14 F+ D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 7 288 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 42% -9  0 - 2 -10 -11 F D C- -1 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 121 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 13% -0  0 - 3 -4 -14 D F F +10 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 80 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 7% -5  0 - 4 +3 -2 D D- C+ +6 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 120 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 13% +1  0 - 5 -7 -7 D- F+ B+ -2 C+ B C
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 86% -2  1 - 5 -10 -7 F F C- -3 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 174 Navy W 69 - 65 29% +7  2 - 5 +3 +4 A+ C F -0 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 285 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 64% +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -6 F D+ C -13 D F A
 Sat, Dec 13 302 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 45% +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -3 F D C- +1 C- D+ B+
 Mon, Dec 15 303 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 69% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -13 -0 D+ F A+ -12 F B- C
 Fri, Dec 19 50 @LSU L 65 - 78 4% -12  3 - 8 +1 +6 D A+ B- -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 250 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 33% -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -11 -8 F F+ C -3 C- F+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 21% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -8 -4 D C+ C- -4 B- D+ A-
 Mon, Jan 5 192 Lamar W 60 - 52 44% +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +3 -4 C+ F A +8 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 83 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 8% -7  4 - 11 2 - 5 -2 -0 D B+ D+ -3 D A- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 230 New Orleans L 76 - 79 51% -1  4 - 12 2 - 6 -10 -2 F C+ B- -7 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 56 - 68 24% -14  4 - 13 2 - 7 -11 -14 D- D- F +3 D D- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 156 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 68 19% -4  4 - 14 2 - 8 -0 -1 C F B +1 C B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 256 Nicholls St. W 67 - 61 57% +2  5 - 14 3 - 8 -2 -10 F F D- +8 A+ B B
 Tue, Jan 27 83 McNeese St. L 66 - 76 17% -8  5 - 15 3 - 9 -6 -2 C C- D -5 D C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 58 - 85 10% -21  5 - 16 3 - 10 -19 -1 D+ B- F -23 F F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 192 @Lamar L 54 - 73 24% -8  5 - 17 3 - 11 -18 -9 F C B+ -12 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 302 Houston Christian W 55 - 47 68% +6  6 - 17 4 - 11 -3 -12 D D F +10 A+ B+ B
 Mon, Feb 9 250 Incarnate Word W 69 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 285 @Northwestern St. L 65 - 67 42%
 Mon, Feb 16 303 @East Texas A&M L 66 - 67 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 69 38%
 Mon, Feb 23 197 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 66 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 71 34%
 Mon, Mar 2 230 @New Orleans L 70 - 76 30%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -7 -7 D- D C- +1 C C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.0 1.4 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 2.1 10.0 5.9 0.3 18.2 8th
9th 1.3 12.7 9.1 0.7 23.7 9th
10th 0.3 8.6 10.5 0.9 0.0 20.3 10th
11th 0.1 4.9 11.3 2.0 18.3 11th
12th 2.8 7.3 2.9 0.1 13.0 12th
Total 2.9 12.4 24.1 27.3 20.3 9.9 2.8 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.3% 0.3
10-12 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
9-13 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.8
8-14 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
7-15 27.3% 27.3
6-16 24.1% 24.1
5-17 12.4% 12.4
4-18 2.9% 2.9
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%