SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#273
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#211
Pace71.9#90
Improvement-0.4#231

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#165
First Shot-0.1#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#148
Layup/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+0.6#128
Improvement+0.3#132

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#332
First Shot-4.1#307
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#329
Layups/Dunks+1.7#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#355
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement-0.7#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.1% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 89.5% 93.2% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 97.9%
Conference Champion 42.8% 47.6% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 5.0%
First Round9.4% 10.3% 5.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 113   @ Colorado St. L 69-80 13%     0 - 1 -4.9 +1.5 -7.0
  Nov 13, 2022 139   @ Wyoming W 76-72 17%     1 - 1 +8.4 +0.9 +7.4
  Nov 18, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. L 68-72 26%     1 - 2 -3.1 -2.8 -0.4
  Nov 19, 2022 255   Campbell W 70-69 46%     2 - 2 -3.8 -8.8 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2022 179   @ Appalachian St. L 74-83 22%     2 - 3 -6.5 -1.2 -4.7
  Nov 30, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 63-95 3%     2 - 4 -15.4 -13.6 +2.4
  Dec 03, 2022 68   @ Dayton L 74-80 7%     2 - 5 +4.9 +13.2 -8.7
  Dec 15, 2022 250   @ Nicholls St. L 73-88 36%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -17.0 -4.3 -11.9
  Dec 17, 2022 149   Troy L 71-77 35%     2 - 7 -7.8 +1.4 -9.4
  Dec 21, 2022 233   Southern W 80-62 53%     3 - 7 +11.6 +7.0 +4.7
  Dec 30, 2022 97   @ Vanderbilt L 55-93 11%     3 - 8 -30.4 -15.3 -15.6
  Jan 05, 2023 350   Houston Christian W 71-59 82%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -3.3 -11.4 +8.1
  Jan 07, 2023 357   Lamar W 89-84 OT 87%     5 - 8 2 - 1 -13.2 -1.3 -12.4
  Jan 12, 2023 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-82 OT 34%     6 - 8 3 - 1 +1.4 -1.0 +2.1
  Jan 14, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word W 75-71 63%     7 - 8 4 - 1 -5.1 +2.8 -7.7
  Jan 19, 2023 225   Northwestern St. L 81-91 OT 50%     7 - 9 4 - 2 -15.7 +1.2 -16.6
  Jan 21, 2023 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-73 71%     8 - 9 5 - 2 -5.6 +2.8 -8.2
  Jan 26, 2023 348   New Orleans W 92-87 81%     9 - 9 6 - 2 -10.0 +6.4 -16.6
  Jan 28, 2023 348   @ New Orleans W 80-64 64%     10 - 9 7 - 2 +6.5 +0.9 +5.4
  Feb 02, 2023 344   Incarnate Word W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 04, 2023 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 09, 2023 339   @ McNeese St. W 78-75 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 250   Nicholls St. W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 16, 2023 225   @ Northwestern St. L 73-78 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 319   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 23, 2023 357   @ Lamar W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 25, 2023 339   McNeese St. W 81-73 78%    
  Mar 01, 2023 350   @ Houston Christian W 82-78 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.6 14.4 16.0 7.2 1.5 42.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 11.4 9.0 1.2 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 7.9 7.6 0.8 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.5 1.0 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.5 16.0 23.6 24.1 17.2 7.2 1.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-3 100.0% 7.2    6.9 0.3
14-4 93.0% 16.0    11.1 4.7 0.2
13-5 59.7% 14.4    4.4 7.0 2.7 0.3
12-6 15.1% 3.6    0.3 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.8% 42.8 24.1 13.2 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.5% 32.4% 32.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0
15-3 7.2% 24.0% 24.0% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 5.5
14-4 17.2% 18.3% 18.3% 15.7 0.1 0.9 2.2 14.0
13-5 24.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.6 21.1
12-6 23.6% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 21.4
11-7 16.0% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1 14.8
10-8 7.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.3 7.1
9-9 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.4
8-10 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 2.8 9.1 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 32.4% 14.9 0.4 6.2 22.5 3.3