SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#266
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#300
Pace66.1#273
Improvement+1.9#74

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#309
First Shot-2.7#247
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#331
Layup/Dunks-3.1#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#328
Freethrows+2.9#31
Improvement+2.1#47

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#185
First Shot-0.7#186
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#172
Freethrows-3.5#348
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.4
.500 or above 5.3% 12.5% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 37.4% 16.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 9.2% 23.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 63 @Mississippi L 58-88 6%     0 - 1 -18.5 -5.5 -14.5
  Fri, Nov 7 314 @Louisiana L 52-58 51%     0 - 2 -11.9 -9.4 -3.7
  Mon, Nov 10 129 @Georgia Tech L 60-70 16%     0 - 3 -5.0 -13.2 +9.0
  Sat, Nov 15 80 @Mississippi St. L 68-75 8%     0 - 4 +2.9 -3.4 +6.7
  Wed, Nov 26 120 @UNC Wilmington L 57-70 14%     0 - 5 -7.2 -7.4 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 28 362 Gardner-Webb W 76-68 82%     1 - 5 -7.5 -5.6 -2.0
  Sat, Nov 29 203 Navy W 69-65 39%     2 - 5 +1.3 +2.0 -0.4
  Sun, Dec 7 273 Northwestern St. L 68-76 63%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -17.0 -7.0 -10.5
  Sat, Dec 13 279 @Houston Christian W 74-71 OT 41%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -0.3 -2.8 +2.4
  Mon, Dec 15 302 East Texas A&M L 69-70 69%     3 - 7 1 - 2 -12.0 -1.8 -10.2
  Fri, Dec 19 39 @LSU L 65-78 4%     3 - 8 +2.4 +7.2 -6.7
  Tue, Dec 30 162 @Incarnate Word L 65-73 21%    
  Sat, Jan 3 132 Stephen F. Austin L 66-70 34%    
  Mon, Jan 5 253 Lamar W 67-64 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 70 @McNeese St. L 60-77 6%    
  Mon, Jan 12 241 New Orleans W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-69 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67-74 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 Nicholls St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mon, Jan 26 70 McNeese St. L 63-74 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 63-73 16%    
  Mon, Feb 2 253 @Lamar L 64-67 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 279 Houston Christian W 70-66 62%    
  Mon, Feb 9 162 Incarnate Word L 68-70 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 273 @Northwestern St. L 67-70 40%    
  Mon, Feb 16 302 @East Texas A&M L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-71 47%    
  Mon, Feb 23 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-66 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 234 @Nicholls St. L 68-72 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 241 @New Orleans L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.2 0.8 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.5 1.8 0.1 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.9 2.7 0.2 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 3.4 6.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.7 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.3 13.6 14.4 13.4 11.2 8.6 5.6 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-5 51.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-6 13.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.1% 18.5% 18.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.3% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 0.7% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-8 1.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-9 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-10 5.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.1 0.0 5.5
11-11 8.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.5
10-12 11.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.1
9-13 13.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.4
8-14 14.4% 14.4
7-15 13.6% 13.6
6-16 11.3% 11.3
5-17 8.0% 8.0
4-18 4.7% 4.7
3-19 2.2% 2.2
2-20 0.7% 0.7
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%