SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#327
Expected Predictive Rating-16.5#345
Pace70.7#139
Improvement-1.4#280

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#311
First Shot-6.7#333
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#89
Layup/Dunks-4.7#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#261
Freethrows+3.1#23
Improvement-1.3#303

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#315
First Shot-5.0#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-5.4#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#264
Freethrows+1.0#135
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 12.7% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.1 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.3% 22.2% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.0% 80.6% 67.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 23.1% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 3.6% 8.4%
First Four9.4% 11.8% 8.7%
First Round4.7% 6.5% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 49 - 109 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 168   @ Tulane L 67-70 12%     0 - 1 -0.1 -1.0 +0.9
  Nov 18, 2021 99   @ SMU L 61-78 6%     0 - 2 -9.2 -12.3 +4.0
  Nov 26, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-74 35%     0 - 3 -14.2 -15.0 +1.1
  Nov 27, 2021 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-90 14%     0 - 4 -17.3 -9.0 -6.6
  Nov 28, 2021 296   Western Michigan L 77-81 OT 39%     0 - 5 -11.3 -7.3 -3.7
  Dec 05, 2021 240   @ Troy L 64-73 20%    
  Dec 11, 2021 292   @ Southern L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 14, 2021 36   @ Louisville L 57-82 1%    
  Dec 19, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 61-82 3%    
  Dec 21, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 66-94 1%    
  Jan 06, 2022 353   Houston Baptist W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 344   Northwestern St. W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 20, 2022 285   @ New Orleans L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 22, 2022 233   @ Nicholls St. L 68-78 20%    
  Jan 27, 2022 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 350   Incarnate Word W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 03, 2022 328   @ McNeese St. L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 353   @ Houston Baptist W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 10, 2022 328   McNeese St. W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 12, 2022 353   Houston Baptist W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 318   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 350   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 285   New Orleans L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 233   Nicholls St. L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 05, 2022 344   @ Northwestern St. W 76-75 51%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 8 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 4.3 2.2 0.6 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.6 6.6 3.4 0.5 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.8 6.7 2.1 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 7.4 6.0 1.6 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.9 4.7 1.2 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.3 3.1 0.5 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.2 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 4.0 8th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.0 9.5 10.7 14.3 15.0 13.2 11.2 8.5 4.8 2.3 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
13-1 96.3% 2.2    1.9 0.3
12-2 89.2% 4.3    3.3 1.0 0.0
11-3 57.8% 4.9    2.6 2.0 0.3
10-4 22.9% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.2 4.6 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.6% 34.5% 34.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.4
13-1 2.3% 35.6% 35.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 1.5
12-2 4.8% 32.4% 32.4% 16.0 1.6 3.3
11-3 8.5% 25.6% 25.6% 16.0 2.2 6.3
10-4 11.2% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 1.7 9.5
9-5 13.2% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 1.4 11.8
8-6 15.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.0 14.0
7-7 14.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.5 13.8
6-8 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 10.5
5-9 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-10 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-11 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-12 1.3% 1.3
1-13 0.3% 0.3
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 9.6 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%