Houston Christian
Southland
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.5#350
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#349
Pace73.7#48
Improvement+0.7#107

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#304
First Shot-2.7#269
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#297
Layup/Dunks-1.3#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
Freethrows+1.4#74
Improvement+0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense-8.2#358
First Shot-7.3#357
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#274
Layups/Dunks-6.8#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
Freethrows-1.0#265
Improvement+0.6#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 42.6% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 2.3% 9.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 47 - 137 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 226   @ Florida International L 66-77 13%     0 - 1 -11.3 -10.4 -0.3
  Nov 10, 2022 10   @ Texas L 31-82 1%     0 - 2 -32.5 -33.7 +1.1
  Nov 18, 2022 285   Western Michigan L 84-90 38%     0 - 3 -15.3 -1.2 -13.8
  Nov 19, 2022 227   Georgia Southern L 77-84 26%     0 - 4 -12.8 +4.5 -17.5
  Nov 21, 2022 170   @ Rice L 67-76 8%     0 - 5 -6.2 -4.6 -2.0
  Nov 26, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 69-105 2%     0 - 6 -23.2 -6.9 -14.1
  Dec 01, 2022 318   Denver L 83-93 46%     0 - 7 -21.4 +1.4 -22.6
  Dec 10, 2022 279   UT Rio Grande Valley L 82-95 37%     0 - 8 -22.0 -8.3 -11.9
  Dec 18, 2022 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 90-100 20%     0 - 9 -13.6 +1.5 -13.6
  Dec 21, 2022 53   @ Texas Tech L 67-111 2%     0 - 10 -31.4 -10.7 -13.0
  Dec 30, 2022 348   New Orleans W 101-96 OT 59%     1 - 10 1 - 0 -10.0 +2.9 -13.7
  Jan 05, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 59-71 18%     1 - 11 1 - 1 -15.0 -18.4 +3.4
  Jan 07, 2023 348   @ New Orleans L 59-82 38%     1 - 12 1 - 2 -32.5 -20.5 -11.5
  Jan 12, 2023 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 68-59 46%     2 - 12 2 - 2 -2.6 -8.7 +6.3
  Jan 14, 2023 339   @ McNeese St. W 90-81 34%     3 - 12 3 - 2 +0.7 +11.1 -10.3
  Jan 19, 2023 344   Incarnate Word L 78-89 58%     3 - 13 3 - 3 -25.6 -3.3 -22.0
  Jan 21, 2023 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-78 30%     4 - 13 4 - 3 +5.0 +9.9 -5.2
  Jan 26, 2023 225   @ Northwestern St. L 63-82 13%     4 - 14 4 - 4 -19.3 -11.6 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2023 319   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 76-77 27%     4 - 15 4 - 5 -7.1 +5.0 -12.2
  Feb 02, 2023 225   Northwestern St. L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 250   Nicholls St. L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 09, 2023 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-84 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word L 72-75 36%    
  Feb 16, 2023 357   @ Lamar W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 357   Lamar W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 23, 2023 339   McNeese St. W 77-76 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 250   @ Nicholls St. L 72-83 16%    
  Mar 01, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 78-82 36%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 6.8 2.6 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.5 7.5 14.9 6.6 0.4 0.0 29.9 6th
7th 0.1 5.9 13.3 5.3 0.4 25.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 9.6 4.1 0.3 16.7 8th
9th 0.5 4.4 2.6 0.1 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.4 10th
Total 1.7 8.3 18.7 25.2 23.3 14.7 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 78.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 16.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
9-9 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
8-10 23.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.3
7-11 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.2
6-12 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
5-13 8.3% 8.3
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%