Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#272
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#299
Pace61.5#355
Improvement+1.5#81

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#179
First Shot+1.3#140
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#286
Layup/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#109
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement+3.6#10

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#339
First Shot-6.4#352
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#119
Layups/Dunks-5.4#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#337
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement-2.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 11.0% 19.4% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 26.9% 41.2% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 8.2% 22.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 85 @UC San Diego L 60-78 8%     0 - 1 -8.5 -8.0 -0.6
  Thu, Nov 13 357 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 86%     1 - 1 -6.3 -9.4 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 294 Bellarmine L 69-74 55%     1 - 2 -12.3 -0.6 -12.4
  Wed, Nov 26 359 @The Citadel W 72-65 71%     2 - 2 -4.8 +5.4 -8.8
  Sat, Nov 29 237 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 32%     2 - 3 -19.1 -9.8 -10.2
  Tue, Dec 2 146 @North Texas L 75-77 18%     2 - 4 +1.8 +17.2 -15.6
  Sat, Dec 6 247 @New Orleans W 85-76 35%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +7.2 +15.3 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 13 273 SE Louisiana L 71-74 OT 62%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -11.9 -3.9 -8.0
  Mon, Dec 15 71 McNeese St. L 68-78 16%     3 - 6 1 - 2 -5.1 +9.1 -15.8
  Wed, Dec 17 257 @Nicholls St. L 68-72 37%    
  Mon, Dec 29 4 @Iowa St. L 57-88 0.2%   
  Sat, Jan 3 175 @Incarnate Word L 67-75 23%    
  Mon, Jan 5 213 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 137 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-75 17%    
  Mon, Jan 12 246 @Lamar L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 295 East Texas A&M W 73-69 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 274 Northwestern St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 193 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-73 47%    
  Mon, Jan 26 175 Incarnate Word L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 213 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-71 31%    
  Mon, Feb 2 193 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 273 @SE Louisiana L 67-70 39%    
  Mon, Feb 9 71 @McNeese St. L 61-78 6%    
  Sat, Feb 14 247 New Orleans W 76-74 57%    
  Mon, Feb 16 257 Nicholls St. W 71-69 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 274 @Northwestern St. L 69-72 40%    
  Mon, Feb 23 295 @East Texas A&M L 70-72 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 137 Stephen F. Austin L 68-72 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 246 Lamar W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.7 2.1 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.6 12.0 13.4 14.0 11.8 10.2 7.0 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-4 46.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 22.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-6 8.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0
19-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.2% 24.5% 24.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-7 1.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-8 2.8% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-9 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7
12-10 7.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.1 0.0 6.9
11-11 10.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.1
10-12 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.8
9-13 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
8-14 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.4
7-15 12.0% 12.0
6-16 9.6% 9.6
5-17 6.3% 6.3
4-18 3.7% 3.7
3-19 1.8% 1.8
2-20 0.5% 0.5
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%