Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#283
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#314
Pace62.8#339
Improvement-0.6#235

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#234
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#356
Layup/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#114
Freethrows-2.6#316
Improvement+2.8#15

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#323
First Shot-6.3#352
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#75
Layups/Dunks-4.2#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#347
Freethrows+2.7#51
Improvement-3.4#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 11.5% 22.1% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 24.9% 41.1% 18.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 20.6% 9.9% 24.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 102 @UC San Diego L 60-78 10%     0 - 1 -10.3 -10.4 -0.1
  Thu, Nov 13 360 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 84%     1 - 1 -6.6 -9.5 +2.9
  Tue, Nov 25 295 Bellarmine L 69-74 53%     1 - 2 -12.4 -0.9 -12.2
  Wed, Nov 26 362 @The Citadel W 72-65 70%     2 - 2 -5.2 +4.5 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 29 233 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 30%     2 - 3 -19.4 -8.5 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 2 148 @North Texas L 75-77 17%     2 - 4 +1.6 +15.5 -14.1
  Sat, Dec 6 212 @New Orleans L 68-75 27%    
  Sat, Dec 13 243 SE Louisiana W 68-67 54%    
  Mon, Dec 15 85 McNeese St. L 63-73 17%    
  Wed, Dec 17 264 @Nicholls St. L 68-72 36%    
  Mon, Dec 29 5 @Iowa St. L 57-87 0.4%   
  Sat, Jan 3 168 @Incarnate Word L 65-74 21%    
  Mon, Jan 5 238 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 146 @Stephen F. Austin L 64-74 18%    
  Mon, Jan 12 196 @Lamar L 62-69 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 308 East Texas A&M W 70-66 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 286 Northwestern St. W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 202 UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 46%    
  Mon, Jan 26 168 Incarnate Word L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 238 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-71 33%    
  Mon, Feb 2 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 243 @SE Louisiana L 65-70 33%    
  Mon, Feb 9 85 @McNeese St. L 60-76 8%    
  Sat, Feb 14 212 New Orleans L 71-72 48%    
  Mon, Feb 16 264 Nicholls St. W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 286 @Northwestern St. L 67-70 41%    
  Mon, Feb 23 308 @East Texas A&M L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 146 Stephen F. Austin L 67-71 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 196 Lamar L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 3.7 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 5.9 7.9 10.1 11.6 11.9 11.4 10.3 8.5 6.2 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
19-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
18-4 66.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-5 51.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-6 23.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-7 6.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.0% 0.0
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.2% 18.0% 18.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-5 0.4% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-6 0.8% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-7 1.7% 7.9% 7.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-8 2.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-9 4.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
12-10 6.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 6.1
11-11 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.4
10-12 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.3
9-13 11.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.3
8-14 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
7-15 11.6% 11.6
6-16 10.1% 10.1
5-17 7.9% 7.9
4-18 5.9% 5.9
3-19 3.6% 3.6
2-20 1.7% 1.7
1-21 0.6% 0.6
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%