Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #305
Pace 62.7 #335
Improvement +0.2 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #229 C- D+ C- D+ C
Defense #338 F+ D+ C C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.15 #178 +1.4 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.64 #329 -1.0 #236
Three Pointers 38% #247 1.02 #189 -1.6 #236
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #212 -1.2 #212
Freethrows 0.29 #238 67% #331 0.19 #282
Second Chance 28.6% #237 0.93 #325 0.27 #281
Turnovers 17.4% #248
Total Offense -2.2 #229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.35 #358 -6.5 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.72 #111 +2.3 #29
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.13 #321 -2.9 #306
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #356 -7.1 #357
Freethrows 0.27 #77 74% #246 0.20 #109
Second Chance 32.6% #278 1.11 #276 0.36 #286
Turnovers 16.6% #164
Total Defense -6.0 #338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #169 1.9% #336
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #217 11.7% #353
Possession Length 18.9 #320 17.7 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.20 #283
Improvement +1.2 #125 -1.0 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 4.8% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.1% 19.2% 40.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 125 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 11% -13  0 - 1 -13 -9 C+ F F -4 D- C B
 Thu, Nov 13 361 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 83% -3  1 - 1 -8 -9 D- F B- +2 D+ A- A-
 Tue, Nov 25 306 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 51% +1  1 - 2 -13 -4 F B+ B- -10 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 348 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 53% +6  2 - 2 -2 +8 B- B- F+ -8 D+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 250 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 27% -6  2 - 3 -20 -11 D- F F+ -10 F C- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 143 @North Texas L 75 - 77 13% -1  2 - 4 +2 +19 A+ F A+ -17 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 219 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 23% +4  3 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +15 C+ B+ A+ -5 D A- F
 Sat, Dec 13 265 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 52% -3  3 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -3 C D+ D+ -9 D+ D C+
 Mon, Dec 15 81 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 13% +1  3 - 6 1 - 2 -6 +7 D+ B- A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 252 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 28% -11  3 - 7 1 - 3 -17 -9 D D F -9 D D F
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  3 - 8 -4 +4 B- F+ B+ -9 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 241 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 26% -9  3 - 9 1 - 4 -18 -15 F F F -4 C- B D
 Mon, Jan 5 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 38% -8  3 - 10 1 - 5 -21 -6 D C F -16 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 9% -15  3 - 11 1 - 6 -11 +8 A- D+ F -21 F+ F F+
 Mon, Jan 12 206 @Lamar L 56 - 64 21% +1  3 - 12 1 - 7 -8 -9 F D- C- -0 F+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 312 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 64% -3  4 - 12 2 - 7 -1 +7 C+ C+ F+ -7 D- C- C+
 Mon, Jan 19 268 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 53% -4  5 - 12 3 - 7 -7 +25 A+ A+ C -31 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 189 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 38% -8  5 - 13 3 - 8 -22 -15 C D- F -10 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 241 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 47% -6  6 - 13 4 - 8 -1 +2 D- A- D -4 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 72 19%
 Mon, Feb 2 189 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 75 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 265 @SE Louisiana L 66 - 71 30%
 Mon, Feb 9 81 @McNeese St. L 63 - 81 4%
 Sat, Feb 14 219 New Orleans L 76 - 78 44%
 Mon, Feb 16 252 Nicholls St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 268 @Northwestern St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Mon, Feb 23 312 @East Texas A&M L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 74 20%
 Mon, Mar 2 206 Lamar L 68 - 70 41%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 15 -8 -2 C- D+ C- -6 F+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 6th
7th 0.4 3.4 1.5 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 4.1 4.7 0.5 9.7 8th
9th 0.3 4.1 9.0 2.1 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.3 4.3 12.1 5.2 0.3 22.1 10th
11th 0.2 3.7 11.7 7.4 0.7 23.6 11th
12th 3.5 9.0 6.1 0.8 0.0 19.4 12th
Total 3.6 12.9 22.4 24.7 19.4 11.1 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.2% 0.2
11-11 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-12 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
9-13 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
8-14 19.4% 19.4
7-15 24.7% 24.7
6-16 22.4% 22.4
5-17 12.9% 12.9
4-18 3.6% 3.6
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.6%