Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#280
Expected Predictive Rating-10.4#321
Pace70.1#155
Improvement+1.8#72

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#277
First Shot-6.1#330
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#63
Layup/Dunks-4.7#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#271
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-1.4#284

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#259
First Shot-2.2#245
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#215
Layups/Dunks-3.5#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#202
Freethrows+0.0#192
Improvement+3.1#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 16.1% 31.0% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.1% 77.6% 51.9%
Conference Champion 2.4% 6.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.8% 3.1%
First Four0.8% 1.2% 0.8%
First Round2.1% 4.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 30   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 3%     0 - 1 -10.0 +4.8 -14.1
  Nov 17, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 33%     0 - 2 -14.7 -0.1 -15.2
  Nov 22, 2024 131   @ Akron L 72-79 16%     0 - 3 -2.5 -5.6 +3.6
  Nov 23, 2024 285   Alabama St. L 75-77 50%     0 - 4 -8.5 +1.6 -10.2
  Nov 24, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 54%     0 - 5 -13.4 -13.6 -0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 26%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +4.3 -5.9 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2024 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-82 20%    
  Dec 14, 2024 262   @ Louisiana L 74-78 37%    
  Dec 17, 2024 250   @ Southern Miss L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 61-84 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 77-68 81%    
  Jan 06, 2025 314   Incarnate Word W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 13, 2025 344   New Orleans W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 63-78 9%    
  Jan 20, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 27, 2025 297   Northwestern St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 03, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 166   UT Rio Grande Valley L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 10, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 17, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 24, 2025 314   @ Incarnate Word L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 66-75 22%    
  Mar 03, 2025 223   Nicholls St. W 72-71 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.9 5.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.4 2.5 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 10.8 12.9 13.7 12.9 10.8 8.5 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 90.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 72.4% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 47.7% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 35.1% 35.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 22.4% 22.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 27.9% 27.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.5% 20.2% 20.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
15-5 3.2% 13.4% 13.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.8
14-6 5.4% 8.0% 8.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0
13-7 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.1
12-8 10.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
11-9 12.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.7
10-10 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.6
9-11 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
8-12 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
7-13 8.6% 8.6
6-14 5.4% 5.4
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 97.6 0.0%