Lamar
Western Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#319
Expected Predictive Rating-16.2#343
Pace69.3#179
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#249
First Shot-3.9#289
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#93
Layup/Dunks-1.2#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#251
Freethrows-1.2#251
Improvement-0.6#245

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#336
First Shot-4.3#303
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#302
Layups/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#334
Freethrows-1.7#285
Improvement+0.2#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 n/a 15.8
.500 or above 0.6% 4.6% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 19.8% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 2.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 1.3% 9.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 45 - 86 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 136   @ Miami (OH) L 75-104 10%     0 - 1 -23.9 -1.3 -21.5
  Nov 15, 2021 88   @ Georgia Tech L 66-75 6%     0 - 2 +0.2 +1.3 -1.5
  Nov 19, 2021 268   Stetson L 59-60 50%     0 - 3 -10.0 -8.6 -1.5
  Nov 21, 2021 247   @ Southern Miss L 75-82 24%     0 - 4 -8.6 +2.1 -10.5
  Nov 24, 2021 300   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-79 33%     0 - 5 -10.5 -2.6 -7.9
  Nov 27, 2021 17   @ Texas Tech L 57-89 2%     0 - 6 -14.3 -5.3 -9.9
  Dec 02, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 58-81 1%    
  Dec 11, 2021 234   @ Texas Arlington L 67-75 22%    
  Dec 15, 2021 138   @ Texas St. L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 18, 2021 318   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 20, 2021 263   Louisiana Monroe L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 30, 2021 218   @ Sam Houston St. L 67-76 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-79 13%    
  Jan 06, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 08, 2022 110   Grand Canyon L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 218   Sam Houston St. L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 20, 2022 306   @ Dixie St. L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 152   @ Utah Valley L 64-77 14%    
  Jan 26, 2022 155   Tarleton St. L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 143   Abilene Christian L 68-76 26%    
  Feb 02, 2022 286   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 10, 2022 217   @ California Baptist L 71-81 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 69-80 16%    
  Feb 19, 2022 158   Stephen F. Austin L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 24, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 65-79 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 155   @ Tarleton St. L 58-71 15%    
  Mar 02, 2022 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-77 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 217   California Baptist L 74-78 39%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 3.6 4.2 1.9 0.2 10.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 5.9 6.6 3.5 0.4 18.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.1 8.5 7.5 3.2 0.4 24.4 11th
12th 1.8 6.5 8.5 5.6 2.5 0.3 25.1 12th
13th 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 4.5 13th
Total 0.5 3.5 9.0 13.3 16.2 16.3 13.8 10.3 7.3 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 3.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 16.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 63.6% 63.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
8-10 7.3% 7.3
7-11 10.3% 10.3
6-12 13.8% 13.8
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 16.2% 16.2
3-15 13.3% 13.3
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%