McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#80
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#40
Pace64.4#309
Improvement+1.5#74

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#93
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#250
Freethrows+3.0#42
Improvement+0.3#154

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+8.8#9
After Offensive Rebounds-5.1#360
Layups/Dunks+13.2#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#309
Freethrows-2.1#299
Improvement+1.3#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.0% 56.3% 44.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 98.5%
Conference Champion 71.9% 78.6% 55.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round52.9% 56.1% 44.8%
Second Round11.5% 12.8% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.1% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 38 - 210 - 5
Quad 414 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 53 @Santa Clara L 67-79 28%     0 - 1 +1.1 +2.7 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 14 325 Louisiana W 88-62 95%     1 - 1 +14.3 +16.3 -0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 62 George Washington W 92-86 43%     2 - 1 +14.8 +15.0 -0.5
  Mon, Nov 24 118 Murray St. W 73-60 65%     3 - 1 +16.1 -4.5 +19.8
  Tue, Nov 25 149 Middle Tennessee W 72-62 75%     4 - 1 +10.0 +15.3 -2.9
  Mon, Dec 1 186 @Incarnate Word W 73-67 71%    
  Fri, Dec 5 284 Northwestern St. W 77-60 94%    
  Tue, Dec 9 106 @Rhode Island L 70-71 48%    
  Fri, Dec 12 309 East Texas A&M W 77-59 95%    
  Mon, Dec 15 277 @Houston Christian W 72-62 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 62-84 2%    
  Sat, Jan 3 196 Lamar W 71-59 86%    
  Mon, Jan 5 139 Stephen F. Austin W 74-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 SE Louisiana W 74-59 91%    
  Mon, Jan 12 270 Nicholls St. W 77-61 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 203 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-70 72%    
  Mon, Jan 19 235 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 204 New Orleans W 78-65 87%    
  Mon, Jan 26 251 @SE Louisiana W 71-62 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 196 @Lamar W 68-62 71%    
  Mon, Feb 2 139 @Stephen F. Austin W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 186 Incarnate Word W 76-64 85%    
  Mon, Feb 9 277 Houston Christian W 75-59 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 309 @East Texas A&M W 74-62 85%    
  Mon, Feb 16 284 @Northwestern St. W 74-63 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 235 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-61 89%    
  Mon, Feb 23 203 UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-67 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 204 @New Orleans W 75-68 73%    
  Mon, Mar 2 270 @Nicholls St. W 74-64 81%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 18 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.2 12.4 15.8 15.8 11.6 5.0 71.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 4.5 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.1 9.1 11.9 15.1 16.8 15.9 11.6 5.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 5.0    5.0
21-1 100.0% 11.6    11.5 0.1
20-2 99.0% 15.8    15.3 0.5
19-3 94.2% 15.8    14.3 1.5 0.0
18-4 81.9% 12.4    9.7 2.6 0.1
17-5 60.9% 7.2    4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
16-6 35.3% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
15-7 14.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 71.9% 71.9 61.8 8.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 5.0% 78.6% 76.2% 2.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.1 10.1%
21-1 11.6% 71.9% 71.0% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.3 3.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 3.2%
20-2 15.9% 66.1% 65.9% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 6.5 1.0 0.0 5.4 0.5%
19-3 16.8% 60.1% 60.1% 12.1 1.3 6.6 2.1 0.1 6.7
18-4 15.1% 52.7% 52.7% 12.4 0.4 4.7 2.6 0.3 7.2
17-5 11.9% 47.3% 47.3% 12.6 0.1 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.3
16-6 9.1% 38.4% 38.4% 12.9 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.6
15-7 6.1% 30.6% 30.6% 13.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.2
14-8 3.8% 19.2% 19.2% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.1
13-9 2.2% 14.0% 14.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.9
12-10 1.2% 7.8% 7.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-11 0.7% 8.3% 8.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-12 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-13 0.1% 0.1
8-14 0.1% 0.1
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16 0.0% 0.0
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 53.0% 52.7% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 10.9 25.9 11.7 2.3 0.1 47.0 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.0 7.3 17.1 19.5 22.0 14.6 9.8 4.9 2.4 2.4