McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.0#356
Expected Predictive Rating-18.8#359
Pace67.9#198
Improvement+0.1#131

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#327
First Shot-6.8#345
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#108
Layup/Dunks-8.5#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#77
Freethrows-3.3#341
Improvement+0.1#83

Defense
Total Defense-9.4#361
First Shot-10.4#363
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#117
Layups/Dunks-1.8#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#362
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+0.0#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 18.6% 8.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 41.8% 28.9% 42.6%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 10
Quad 46 - 146 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 122   @ Tulane L 58-75 4%     0 - 1 -10.9 -17.3 +7.2
  Nov 18, 2022 306   Western Carolina L 69-88 36%     0 - 2 -30.2 -8.0 -22.9
  Nov 19, 2022 345   Lindenwood L 60-78 54%     0 - 3 -33.9 -19.3 -14.7
  Nov 20, 2022 342   Lamar W 66-57 52%     1 - 3 -6.4 -10.0 +4.3
  Nov 23, 2022 18   @ Baylor L 60-89 1%     1 - 4 -10.8 -5.0 -6.5
  Nov 28, 2022 331   @ Tennessee Martin L 83-86 24%     1 - 5 -10.5 +4.1 -14.6
  Nov 30, 2022 4   @ Tennessee L 40-76 0.3%    1 - 6 -14.0 -14.7 -1.7
  Dec 09, 2022 180   @ Northern Iowa L 64-81 5%    
  Dec 11, 2022 31   @ Iowa St. L 52-82 0.3%   
  Dec 15, 2022 141   Louisiana L 65-79 10%    
  Dec 18, 2022 114   @ Southern Miss L 59-81 2%    
  Dec 21, 2022 2   @ Houston L 44-83 0.0%   
  Dec 31, 2022 342   @ Lamar L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 05, 2023 227   Northwestern St. L 70-79 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 285   Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 12, 2023 227   @ Northwestern St. L 67-82 9%    
  Jan 14, 2023 347   Houston Christian W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 19, 2023 243   @ Nicholls St. L 70-84 10%    
  Jan 21, 2023 243   Nicholls St. L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 26, 2023 338   @ Incarnate Word L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 28, 2023 260   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 02, 2023 342   Lamar W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 04, 2023 285   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 09, 2023 264   SE Louisiana L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 333   @ New Orleans L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 16, 2023 338   Incarnate Word W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 260   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 23, 2023 347   @ Houston Christian L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 25, 2023 264   @ SE Louisiana L 70-83 13%    
  Mar 01, 2023 333   New Orleans L 77-78 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 6.1 6.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.3 8.1 7.1 2.4 0.2 23.1 9th
10th 1.2 4.4 8.1 9.0 5.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 29.9 10th
Total 1.2 4.4 9.0 13.6 15.7 15.9 13.6 10.6 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 68.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 34.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
9-9 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-11 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-12 13.6% 13.6
5-13 15.9% 15.9
4-14 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 13.6% 13.6
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%