McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#95
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#129
Pace64.7#298
Improvement+0.0#179

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#80
First Shot+2.3#111
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#105
Layup/Dunks+2.0#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#330
Freethrows+4.3#16
Improvement+1.2#90

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#111
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#313
Layups/Dunks+10.2#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#351
Freethrows-0.3#212
Improvement-1.2#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.7% 59.2% 51.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 11.9 12.9
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.6%
Conference Champion 74.9% 81.2% 73.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round52.6% 59.1% 51.2%
Second Round10.0% 13.5% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Neutral) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 416 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 120   South Dakota St. L 73-80 62%     0 - 1 -4.5 -2.3 -1.8
  Nov 11, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 64-72 8%     0 - 2 +13.5 +1.7 +11.4
  Nov 18, 2024 77   North Texas W 68-61 55%     1 - 2 +11.2 +7.4 +4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 170   Illinois St. W 76-68 73%     2 - 2 +7.3 +12.0 -3.6
  Nov 24, 2024 202   Longwood W 84-69 76%     3 - 2 +13.1 +11.1 +2.0
  Nov 25, 2024 70   Liberty L 58-62 41%     3 - 3 +4.0 -0.1 +3.5
  Dec 03, 2024 84   Santa Clara L 67-74 59%     3 - 4 -3.6 +0.6 -4.7
  Dec 14, 2024 15   Mississippi St. L 68-78 18%    
  Dec 22, 2024 262   @ Louisiana W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 28, 2024 344   New Orleans W 84-63 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 227   SE Louisiana W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-61 93%    
  Jan 06, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 223   Nicholls St. W 76-64 87%    
  Jan 13, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 79-64 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 280   Lamar W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 20, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 27, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 03, 2025 314   Incarnate Word W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 297   Northwestern St. W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 10, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-58 97%    
  Feb 15, 2025 344   @ New Orleans W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 17, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 166   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-72 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 280   @ Lamar W 75-66 78%    
  Mar 03, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin W 69-59 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.6 11.4 17.1 18.8 14.9 7.0 74.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.0 3.9 1.5 0.3 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.2 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.9 6.6 10.6 15.4 18.6 19.1 14.9 7.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.0    7.0
19-1 100.0% 14.9    14.8 0.1
18-2 98.6% 18.8    18.0 0.9
17-3 91.7% 17.1    14.5 2.5 0.1
16-4 73.7% 11.4    7.3 3.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 43.4% 4.6    2.0 2.0 0.7 0.0
14-6 15.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 74.9% 74.9 63.7 9.5 1.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.0% 76.7% 76.5% 0.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.9%
19-1 14.9% 69.0% 69.0% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 6.5 2.3 0.3 4.6 0.1%
18-2 19.1% 61.1% 61.1% 12.6 0.2 5.4 5.0 1.0 0.0 7.4
17-3 18.6% 55.6% 55.6% 13.0 0.0 2.7 5.4 2.0 0.2 8.3
16-4 15.4% 48.4% 48.4% 13.4 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.9
15-5 10.6% 40.4% 40.4% 13.8 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 6.3
14-6 6.6% 29.8% 29.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 4.6
13-7 3.9% 22.1% 22.1% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.0
12-8 2.0% 12.9% 12.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-9 1.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-10 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.2% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 52.7% 52.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.1 18.2 18.3 9.3 2.5 0.3 47.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 8.6 1.1 1.7 3.8 8.2 12.0 8.8 8.3 10.9 11.2 25.8 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 4.5% 11.0 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 3.0% 11.0 3.0