Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.8 279
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 313
Pace 64.0 306
Improvement +3.8 41

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #272 D D+ C C+ D
Defense D+ #271 D D C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 257 50% 349 -4.5 329
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 61 41% 75 +3.4 39
Three Pointers 37% 268 33% 224 -2.7 279
1st FG Attempt 0.94 300 -3.8 300
Second Chance 24.3% 337 1.14 52 0.28 261
Turnovers 17.3% 205
Freethrows 0.31 176 74% 143 0.23 154
Total Offense -3.7 272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 61% 269 -3.3 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 44% 339 +0.3 161
Three Pointers 41% 175 36% 291 -1.6 262
1st FG Attempt 1.11 316 -4.6 316
Second Chance 33.4% 297 1.13 315 0.38 317
Turnovers 17.2% 171
Freethrows 0.35 301 72% 197 0.25 297
Total Defense -3.1 271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 309 +0.7 297
Shot Type Accuracy -2.7 275 +3.7 314
Possession Length 18.9 329 16.8 111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 288 0.19 228
Improvement -3.1 #331 +6.9 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 11.1% 39.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 43 - 12
Quad 45 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 D -4 D C- C- D -5 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 144 @North Texas L 53 - 80 15% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D -6 C F F F -22 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 341 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 57% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -2 C F C F+ -10 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 106 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 10% -15  1% 0 - 4 D- -13 C- -0 D C+ D- F -15 F C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 63 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 5% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -2 B +7 A F A- D- -8 F+ F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 29 264 Southern L 73 - 75 58% -8  6% 0 - 6 D -11 D -5 D C+ D+ D -6 F D+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 89 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 8% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -29 F -15 D+ F F+ F -16 F C- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 270 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 36% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 B- +5 B +7 C A+ D- C- -2 C+ D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 71 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 A- C+ F C -2 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 197 Lamar L 61 - 76 45% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -20 F -13 F+ F+ D D- -9 F B B+
 Wed, Dec 31 104 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 D -5 D F+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 224 New Orleans W 74 - 68 48% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C -0 C- -2 F A C- C+ +2 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 267 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 35% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 D+ -5 D -4 F+ C+ A C -1 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 45% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -5 B +7 A B+ D- F -11 F C- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 34% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -8 D- D+ D B+ +7 B- B B+
 Sat, Jan 17 256 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 33% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 C- -4 C +0 B F+ D- D+ -5 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 297 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 42% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +22 B- A+ A- F -29 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 10% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +5 D -5 F B- B+ A +10 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 224 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 27% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D- -11 F -12 C- F D+ C -0 C+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 267 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 58% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D- -12 F -16 F B C+ B- +3 A F+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 300 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 66% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -17 D+ -2 B F A F -15 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 300 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 43% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -9 F -24 F B+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 197 @Lamar W 70 - 68 24% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C+ +3 C -0 D- D+ A+ B- +3 D+ A C+
 Sat, Feb 14 270 SE Louisiana W 67 - 65 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 89 McNeese St. L 65 - 75 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 297 Houston Christian W 71 - 67 64%
 Mon, Feb 23 256 Incarnate Word W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 71 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 76 17%
Totals 7 - 22 7 - 15 -7 D+ -4 D D+ C D+ -3 D D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- B- C- D+ 36% 27% 37% D D D- B D+ C C C+ C+ D+ D+ D- D+ D 42% 17% 41% D D D+ D D C D C D
1.03 50% 41% 33% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.1 .28 17% .31 74% .23 1.13 61% 44% 36% +4 +1 1.11 33% 1.1 .38 17% .35 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- C+ D 39% 27% 35% C- D C- C C- C- A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C B- 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D+ F C+ D+ B- C-
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D F A+ D- B 16% 41% 44% F C C F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C+ F F F F C+ F A- F+
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ B- C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A A+ F+ B- B+ F+ D 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D+ 35% 30% 35% D- D B- C- C+ D- A+ D+ A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F C- B C+ D F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +16 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D+ F A- A F+ B+ D- F F+ C F+ 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F B F+ C+ F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +6 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D C- A- C+ D+ F F F D B- A+ F F+ 56% 14% 30% F F D- C D+ B+ A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D+ 22% 13% 65% C- D+ F F F F+ F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- C+ B- C+ B-
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B D+ A B- 36% 38% 26% F C A A+ A+ D- A+ B- A+ C- F C+ A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C F D- D+ F C- F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California C+ C+ D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C+ F C A+ A- C B- A+ F B 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F B+ D D+ D
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- D- 33% 37% 30% F F+ F D+ F+ D A+ D A D- F F C- F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A+ F+ B B+ B B- B
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D C F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A- D+ F+ D A C 46% 18% 36% F D+ D+ A+ B+ C+ F D F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C- F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C- A+ A C- A+ A A+ C+ F F+ A+ C+ 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B+ C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D C A+ F F 43% 14% 43% B- F+ D- A+ C+ A C+ F+ C- C F D A D- 51% 10% 39% F F+ C+ A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 21% 24% B- A C- A+ B+ D- B+ A A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B- F B F+ C- F+ F C+ F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C D- F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F B+ D+ D A+ A- A+ B+ C A B+ B 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B B+ A F B
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C A- A C- B 47% 19% 35% C B F B- F+ D- A B- A D+ A+ F D C 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C A+ B- B- 46% 15% 39% C+ B- A+ A A+ A- A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% D- F F F F C F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F D- C F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F D F A B A- C+ A- 30% 36% 34% A- A- A F C- C+ F+ B+ D
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F D- A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F D+ F B F C A- D- C- C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C+ D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% C- F D- A+ B C+ B B- B+ B- A+ F B A 45% 25% 30% C+ A F D+ F+ B D F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A F F+ C- B+ F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ A- B+ F D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ D- A+ A+ D- F C+ F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F+ D- F+ A- D+ A+ D D D B- A D F D 30% 39% 30% B- D+ B- A+ A C+ F C- F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.3 1.4 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 2.0 15.4 8.0 0.4 25.8 8th
9th 0.2 12.1 11.0 0.5 23.8 9th
10th 3.6 14.0 1.7 19.2 10th
11th 0.5 9.7 4.3 0.1 14.5 11th
12th 3.7 4.2 0.2 8.1 12th
Total 4.2 17.7 32.5 29.1 13.1 3.0 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.4% 0.4
10-12 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
8-14 29.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.1
7-15 32.5% 32.5
6-16 17.7% 17.7
5-17 4.2% 4.2
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.2%