Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#290
Pace63.3#324
Improvement+2.0#53

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#208
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks-7.9#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#250
Freethrows+3.2#31
Improvement+0.5#141

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#336
First Shot-5.0#334
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#277
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+1.5#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 4.4% 15.4% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 44.1% 28.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 17.6% 8.2% 18.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 44 @Texas A&M L 68-98 4%     0 - 1 -15.8 -3.6 -10.1
  Thu, Nov 6 146 @North Texas L 53-80 16%     0 - 2 -23.2 -5.4 -22.8
  Tue, Nov 11 197 @North Alabama L 83-87 OT 24%     0 - 3 -3.4 +5.3 -8.5
  Tue, Nov 18 94 @San Francisco L 64-84 9%     0 - 4 -11.5 +3.8 -17.9
  Fri, Nov 21 95 @Grand Canyon L 72-85 9%     0 - 5 -4.6 +6.4 -11.3
  Sat, Nov 29 205 Southern L 73-75 47%     0 - 6 -7.9 -0.7 -7.3
  Fri, Dec 5 81 @McNeese St. L 54-92 7%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -28.0 -10.1 -19.6
  Sun, Dec 7 273 @SE Louisiana W 76-68 35%     1 - 7 1 - 1 +5.2 +9.1 -3.4
  Sat, Dec 13 72 @California L 63-81 5%    
  Mon, Dec 29 220 Lamar L 66-67 49%    
  Wed, Dec 31 139 Stephen F. Austin L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 241 New Orleans W 75-74 53%    
  Mon, Jan 5 254 @Nicholls St. L 69-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 208 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-69 48%    
  Mon, Jan 12 206 UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 @Incarnate Word L 67-75 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 263 @Houston Christian L 68-72 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 290 East Texas A&M W 71-68 62%    
  Mon, Jan 26 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Jan 31 241 @New Orleans L 72-77 32%    
  Mon, Feb 2 254 Nicholls St. W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 @East Texas A&M L 68-71 41%    
  Mon, Feb 9 220 @Lamar L 63-69 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 273 SE Louisiana W 70-68 57%    
  Mon, Feb 16 81 McNeese St. L 63-74 17%    
  Sat, Feb 21 263 Houston Christian W 71-69 56%    
  Mon, Feb 23 188 Incarnate Word L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 208 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-72 28%    
  Mon, Mar 2 206 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.5 1.6 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 11.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.2 11.4 12.9 12.9 11.5 9.6 7.7 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
19-3 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-4 51.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-5 45.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 16.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-5 0.4% 11.9% 11.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-6 1.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-7 1.9% 8.3% 8.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-8 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.2
13-9 5.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
12-10 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.5
11-11 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.6
10-12 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
9-13 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
8-14 12.9% 12.9
7-15 11.4% 11.4
6-16 9.2% 9.2
5-17 6.6% 6.6
4-18 3.9% 3.9
3-19 1.8% 1.8
2-20 0.6% 0.6
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%