Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#282
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#99
Pace65.5#263
Improvement+0.2#59

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#250
First Shot-3.4#288
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#118
Layup/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#106
Freethrows-3.7#355
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#282
First Shot-2.2#246
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#269
Layups/Dunks-2.3#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#91
Freethrows-3.7#341
Improvement+0.2#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 22.8% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 69.8% 86.4% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 85.9% 75.3%
Conference Champion 16.4% 24.0% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.1% 2.6%
First Four5.4% 5.1% 5.4%
First Round12.4% 19.8% 10.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 26   @ Texas Tech L 49-73 3%     0 - 1 -7.9 -11.2 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2022 280   Illinois St. L 67-69 61%     0 - 2 -11.0 +1.5 -12.8
  Nov 14, 2022 53   @ TCU W 64-63 5%     1 - 2 +13.4 +2.3 +11.1
  Nov 17, 2022 280   @ Illinois St. W 70-67 38%     2 - 2 +0.0 +0.8 -0.7
  Nov 26, 2022 319   @ Central Arkansas W 74-66 OT 52%     3 - 2 +1.3 -10.8 +11.3
  Nov 27, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 69-66 78%     4 - 2 -11.3 -5.8 -5.3
  Dec 01, 2022 168   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-74 20%    
  Dec 04, 2022 109   Southern Miss L 62-69 25%    
  Dec 10, 2022 316   Louisiana Monroe W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 278   @ Rice L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 20, 2022 19   @ Baylor L 63-87 1%    
  Dec 27, 2022 56   @ Texas A&M L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 31, 2022 250   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 05, 2023 354   @ McNeese St. W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 249   Nicholls St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 12, 2023 354   McNeese St. W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 14, 2023 249   @ Nicholls St. L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 19, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 337   @ New Orleans W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 26, 2023 340   Houston Christian W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 28, 2023 330   Lamar W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 02, 2023 340   @ Houston Christian W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 04, 2023 330   @ Lamar W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 09, 2023 261   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 261   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 16, 2023 273   SE Louisiana W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 337   New Orleans W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 23, 2023 327   @ Incarnate Word W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 250   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-74 34%    
  Mar 01, 2023 327   Incarnate Word W 70-62 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 4.9 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 16.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.4 5.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 4.7 1.2 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.9 11.7 13.3 13.6 13.1 10.4 7.8 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 98.8% 2.1    1.9 0.2
15-3 88.2% 4.0    3.1 0.8 0.0
14-4 63.3% 4.9    2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 30.9% 3.2    1.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
12-6 8.8% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 9.8 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 74.6% 74.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.7% 61.8% 61.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.1% 57.3% 57.3% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.9
15-3 4.5% 42.7% 42.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 2.6
14-4 7.8% 35.5% 35.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 5.0
13-5 10.4% 27.3% 27.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 7.6
12-6 13.1% 16.9% 16.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 10.9
11-7 13.6% 12.9% 12.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 11.9
10-8 13.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.9 0.1 1.1 12.2
9-9 11.7% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.7 11.0
8-10 8.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 8.6
7-11 6.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 9.3 84.5 0.0%