Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
233 Southern 40.8%   16   10 - 10 8 - 1 17 - 12 15 - 3 -3.7      -4.4 306 +0.7 148 78.4 14 -2.8 222 +1.8 1
240 Grambling St. 34.0%   11 - 8 6 - 3 18 - 10 13 - 5 -4.1      -4.2 300 +0.1 170 69.4 139 -1.5 198 -5.3 3
287 Prairie View 9.5%   6 - 14 4 - 5 11 - 18 9 - 9 -6.7      -7.4 349 +0.7 149 69.3 143 -9.1 315 -10.3 6
289 Alcorn St. 8.8%   10 - 11 7 - 2 16 - 14 13 - 5 -6.8      -3.7 292 -3.1 269 68.8 166 -1.4 197 -1.1 2
314 Texas Southern 3.9%   5 - 15 3 - 6 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8.2      -6.9 342 -1.3 221 71.9 88 -10.9 333 -13.4 10
327 Jackson St. 1.6%   6 - 16 5 - 4 11 - 20 10 - 8 -9.4      -6.0 330 -3.4 276 71.5 94 -8.5 306 -7.2 5
331 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.1%   6 - 12 6 - 3 10 - 17 10 - 8 -10.1      -8.7 357 -1.4 222 73.6 50 -8.0 299 -6.8 4
347 Alabama A&M 0.2%   5 - 14 4 - 5 9 - 19 8 - 10 -12.1      -8.4 354 -3.7 289 74.4 39 -13.3 346 -12.9 9
353 Alabama St. 0.0%   5 - 16 4 - 5 8 - 22 7 - 11 -13.4      -8.7 356 -4.7 312 69.1 152 -12.3 340 -12.0 8
354 Bethune-Cookman 0.0%   6 - 14 4 - 5 9 - 20 7 - 11 -14.1      -6.1 332 -7.9 355 71.3 97 -12.1 338 -11.6 7
358 Florida A&M 0.0%   2 - 16 2 - 7 4 - 23 4 - 14 -15.6      -12.0 363 -3.6 282 63.0 315 -19.6 361 -19.4 11
361 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   2 - 21 1 - 8 4 - 28 3 - 15 -17.2      -10.9 360 -6.3 338 68.4 173 -17.6 358 -20.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 1.2 83.0 12.0 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 2.6 15.9 35.2 33.8 10.0 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 5.4 0.2 2.5 7.8 18.4 26.4 22.8 11.7 6.3 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.3 21.6 43.9 21.5 8.6 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.4 10.4 16.5 20.4 21.0 15.6 8.5 1.7 0.3
Jackson St. 4.6 0.9 7.6 15.8 29.3 21.8 13.3 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.5 1.3 8.7 15.5 27.3 22.3 13.4 6.5 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
Alabama A&M 7.5 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.5 8.6 14.9 20.2 19.6 17.2 11.8 2.4 0.3
Alabama St. 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 7.2 13.6 19.3 20.7 18.6 13.6 2.8 0.4
Bethune-Cookman 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.1 8.7 13.5 17.4 20.9 27.1 5.9 0.5
Florida A&M 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 6.6 14.7 52.7 20.5
Mississippi Valley 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 6.3 32.9 57.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 15 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 10.4 21.2 29.3 24.5 9.7
Grambling St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.6 13.6 23.1 27.5 20.7 7.2
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.6 16.0 26.3 26.0 16.7 5.7 0.9
Alcorn St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 10.6 19.5 25.6 22.8 12.8 3.3
Texas Southern 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 4.1 12.9 24.2 27.1 19.8 8.6 2.3 0.2
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.7 17.1 23.4 23.3 15.7 6.8 1.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10 - 8 0.3 2.7 8.9 17.8 23.8 22.7 15.1 6.7 1.7 0.2
Alabama A&M 8 - 10 0.9 5.7 15.5 24.6 25.3 17.2 7.9 2.4 0.5 0.0
Alabama St. 7 - 11 1.1 6.6 17.3 26.5 24.9 15.5 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 7 - 11 3.3 13.9 25.0 26.4 18.6 8.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 4 - 14 8.6 22.3 27.6 22.0 12.4 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 7.5 22.1 28.7 23.1 12.3 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 83.0% 65.3 14.8 2.7 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 15.9% 5.6 7.6 2.6 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 21.6% 8.9 10.1 2.4 0.2 0.0
Texas Southern 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 0.9% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.3% 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 0.0% 0.0
Florida A&M
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.6 12.1 27.0 59.2 0.0%
Grambling St. 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 10.0 22.6 66.0 0.0%
Prairie View 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 9.4 90.5 0.0%
Alcorn St. 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 7.2 91.2 0.0%
Texas Southern 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 3.9 96.1 0.0%
Jackson St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 40.8% 12.7% 34.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 34.0% 10.4% 28.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 9.5% 9.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 8.8% 4.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 3.9% 3.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 76.5% 0.8 23.5 76.5
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0