Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
201 Texas Southern 33.8%   16   0 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 14 14 - 4 -1.9      -1.8 228 -0.1 176 71.7 111 -8.4 295 0.0 1
249 Jackson St. 17.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 6 -4.8      -5.6 322 +0.8 145 65.9 264 -2.6 214 0.0 1
251 Prairie View 17.3%   0 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 12 - 6 -4.9      -2.2 243 -2.6 259 77.4 32 -3.6 229 0.0 1
291 Southern 9.7%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 7 -7.3      -5.9 327 -1.4 225 75.8 47 -3.1 221 0.0 1
303 Florida A&M 8.0%   0 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 8 -8.0      -6.7 343 -1.3 220 69.3 184 -7.8 287 0.0 1
326 Alcorn St. 4.1%   0 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 9 -10.2      -6.0 331 -4.1 296 69.3 186 -10.4 312 0.0 1
331 Grambling St. 2.8%   0 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -11.0      -6.9 344 -4.1 294 72.4 92 -8.3 292 0.0 1
334 Alabama St. 3.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 20 9 - 9 -11.3      -8.6 350 -2.7 264 77.0 39 -7.1 280 0.0 1
344 Alabama A&M 1.6%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -13.0      -9.2 353 -3.8 290 70.6 144 -6.2 264 0.0 1
346 Bethune-Cookman 1.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 11 -13.3      -6.3 338 -7.0 344 68.7 203 -8.5 299 0.0 1
357 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   0 - 7 0 - 0 4 - 25 4 - 14 -19.6      -11.3 356 -8.3 350 71.3 123 -10.3 311 0.0 1
358 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 2 - 27 2 - 16 -24.6      -11.6 357 -12.9 358 77.3 33 -8.2 291 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Southern 2.2 48.7 21.0 11.9 7.5 5.2 3.1 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 3.2 23.1 23.3 16.9 13.4 8.6 6.5 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.3
Prairie View 3.3 21.7 20.6 17.9 13.6 9.9 7.4 4.7 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.1
Southern 4.9 9.2 11.5 13.1 13.9 13.2 11.5 10.1 7.6 5.7 3.1 1.0 0.2
Florida A&M 5.0 9.9 12.1 13.6 12.5 10.6 11.9 10.1 7.1 5.9 4.4 1.5 0.4
Alcorn St. 5.9 4.0 6.7 10.0 10.8 11.6 14.1 12.8 12.6 8.5 5.4 3.1 0.6
Grambling St. 6.9 2.1 4.4 6.2 7.5 9.3 11.0 11.9 13.7 15.8 12.7 4.6 0.9
Alabama St. 6.1 2.9 6.4 9.1 11.6 11.7 13.1 12.3 12.7 9.8 6.7 3.3 0.4
Alabama A&M 7.0 1.7 3.6 5.8 7.9 10.4 11.6 12.9 13.5 14.2 11.1 5.7 1.6
Bethune-Cookman 7.8 1.2 2.2 2.9 5.0 6.2 9.2 12.5 14.8 16.1 18.1 9.4 2.5
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.0 6.1 10.1 21.7 38.9 17.0
Mississippi Valley 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.0 8.6 25.0 61.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.3 4.9 6.7 11.2 13.6 17.3 17.0 14.6 8.5 2.3
Jackson St. 12 - 6 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 6.2 8.4 12.6 14.8 17.3 14.9 10.7 5.9 2.8 0.5
Prairie View 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.9 10.2 13.0 15.7 15.8 14.0 9.8 5.2 2.6 0.5
Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.5 6.1 9.5 12.1 13.6 14.9 12.9 9.5 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.2
Florida A&M 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.1 9.4 12.1 11.9 13.6 11.3 10.0 7.9 4.4 2.0 1.2 0.4
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.1 4.0 7.6 10.4 12.6 13.6 13.5 12.8 9.5 6.8 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.2
Grambling St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.4 4.2 9.0 11.2 14.6 13.2 12.3 10.3 8.5 5.8 3.8 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.2
Alabama St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.1 8.0 10.1 13.9 13.1 13.6 11.6 9.3 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 7.7 11.2 12.7 14.3 12.7 11.8 8.8 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 7 - 11 0.1 1.3 2.4 4.5 7.6 12.1 13.3 15.2 13.0 10.9 7.9 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4 - 14 1.5 7.6 14.1 19.7 17.7 14.2 11.1 6.9 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 15.2 23.5 23.5 17.4 9.8 5.5 3.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 48.7% 36.4 9.7 2.1 0.4 0.1
Jackson St. 23.1% 13.7 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.1
Prairie View 21.7% 13.3 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.1
Southern 9.2% 4.7 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 9.9% 5.4 3.2 1.1 0.2
Alcorn St. 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Grambling St. 2.1% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 2.9% 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
Alabama A&M 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 33.8% 33.8% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.0 0.3 2.7 30.8 66.2 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 16.5 82.1 0.0%
Prairie View 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 16.6 82.7 0.0%
Southern 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 9.1 90.4 0.0%
Florida A&M 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.7 92.0 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Grambling St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Alabama St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Texas Southern 33.8% 25.0% 24.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.9% 13.7% 11.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 17.3% 15.2% 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 9.7% 7.7% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 8.0% 6.7% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.1% 3.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 2.8% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 3.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 64.7% 0.6 35.4 64.7
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.8 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0