Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-24.6#358
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#279
Pace77.3#30
Improvement+0.7#120

Offense
Total Offense-11.9#357
First Shot-9.0#354
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#326
Layup/Dunks-6.9#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#228
Freethrows+1.6#82
Improvement-0.1#191

Defense
Total Defense-12.8#358
First Shot-7.9#350
After Offensive Rebounds-4.9#352
Layups/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#343
Freethrows-3.4#334
Improvement+0.8#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 75.5% 63.5% 75.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 42 - 182 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 61   @ St. John's L 61-119 0.4%    0 - 1 -47.4 -17.1 -20.8
  Nov 13, 2021 217   @ California Baptist L 66-95 2%     0 - 2 -28.4 -15.9 -9.2
  Nov 26, 2021 69   @ Mississippi L 58-73 0.4%    0 - 3 -4.8 +0.1 -6.7
  Nov 29, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt L 36-75 0.5%    0 - 4 -29.1 -30.6 +1.4
  Dec 01, 2021 308   @ North Alabama L 66-85 3%    
  Dec 04, 2021 110   @ Grand Canyon L 55-86 0.2%   
  Dec 09, 2021 233   Nicholls St. L 68-86 5%    
  Dec 11, 2021 229   Arkansas St. L 65-83 4%    
  Dec 18, 2021 233   @ Nicholls St. L 65-89 1%    
  Dec 22, 2021 51   @ UAB L 57-93 0.1%   
  Dec 29, 2021 225   @ South Florida L 51-76 1%    
  Jan 03, 2022 339   Alabama St. L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 05, 2022 342   Alabama A&M L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 242   @ Prairie View L 69-92 2%    
  Jan 10, 2022 199   @ Texas Southern L 62-88 1%    
  Jan 15, 2022 345   Bethune-Cookman L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 17, 2022 305   Florida A&M L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 22, 2022 324   @ Grambling St. L 65-83 5%    
  Jan 24, 2022 292   @ Southern L 66-87 3%    
  Jan 29, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 258   Jackson St. L 62-78 8%    
  Feb 07, 2022 315   Alcorn St. L 66-79 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 342   @ Alabama A&M L 65-80 10%    
  Feb 14, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 68-83 10%    
  Feb 19, 2022 242   Prairie View L 72-89 7%    
  Feb 21, 2022 199   Texas Southern L 65-85 4%    
  Feb 26, 2022 357   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70-78 24%    
  Mar 03, 2022 315   @ Alcorn St. L 63-82 5%    
  Mar 05, 2022 258   @ Jackson St. L 59-81 3%    
Projected Record 2 - 27 2 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.8 0.6 0.1 8.3 10th
11th 1.7 6.9 9.4 5.9 1.7 0.1 25.7 11th
12th 15.5 22.9 16.3 6.2 1.0 0.0 61.9 12th
Total 15.5 24.6 23.5 17.1 10.3 5.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 1.1% 1.1
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 5.5% 5.5
4-14 10.3% 10.3
3-15 17.1% 17.1
2-16 23.5% 23.5
1-17 24.6% 24.6
0-18 15.5% 15.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 14.6%