Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-17.2#361
Expected Predictive Rating-17.6#358
Pace68.4#173
Improvement-0.3#220

Offense
Total Offense-10.9#360
First Shot-11.4#363
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#137
Layup/Dunks-3.4#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.7#362
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#338
First Shot-4.3#310
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#337
Layups/Dunks+3.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#351
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement-0.5#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 77.0% 57.0% 80.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 44 - 164 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 53-117 0.4%    0 - 1 -46.5 -20.4 -18.7
  Nov 11, 2022 134   @ Hawaii L 54-72 3%     0 - 2 -13.4 -5.8 -10.3
  Nov 13, 2022 92   Yale L 51-80 3%     0 - 3 -23.7 -16.4 -8.7
  Nov 14, 2022 161   Eastern Washington L 52-60 6%     0 - 4 -7.7 -18.1 +9.7
  Nov 18, 2022 291   North Alabama W 76-68 24%     1 - 4 -1.6 -5.6 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 62-83 1%     1 - 5 -8.2 -12.5 +5.3
  Nov 23, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 51-64 4%     1 - 6 -10.2 -0.5 -14.8
  Nov 26, 2022 113   @ Colorado St. L 45-88 3%     1 - 7 -36.9 -28.4 -7.0
  Dec 01, 2022 311   @ Arkansas St. L 38-58 14%     1 - 8 -25.4 -26.7 -4.1
  Dec 03, 2022 55   @ Mississippi St. L 52-82 1%     1 - 9 -17.7 -3.8 -17.7
  Dec 13, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. L 48-71 2%     1 - 10 -16.6 -20.3 +4.2
  Dec 16, 2022 235   @ Tulsa L 51-66 7%     1 - 11 -16.0 -19.3 +2.2
  Dec 18, 2022 15   @ TCU L 43-88 0.4%    1 - 12 -27.6 -18.0 -11.8
  Dec 21, 2022 77   @ Tulane L 63-84 1%     1 - 13 -11.4 -10.4 +0.2
  Jan 02, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. L 61-70 26%     1 - 14 0 - 1 -19.6 -16.2 -3.3
  Jan 04, 2023 347   @ Alabama A&M L 68-75 23%     1 - 15 0 - 2 -16.4 -3.3 -13.5
  Jan 07, 2023 287   Prairie View L 60-67 23%     1 - 16 0 - 3 -16.4 -11.7 -4.9
  Jan 09, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 71-67 27%     2 - 16 1 - 3 -6.9 -3.4 -3.4
  Jan 14, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-77 29%     2 - 17 1 - 4 -17.3 -7.2 -10.2
  Jan 16, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M L 59-60 34%     2 - 18 1 - 5 -13.9 -10.6 -3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 240   Grambling St. L 61-65 17%     2 - 19 1 - 6 -10.8 -17.2 +6.6
  Jan 23, 2023 233   Southern L 70-84 16%     2 - 20 1 - 7 -20.4 -5.6 -14.4
  Jan 28, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 72-88 18%     2 - 21 1 - 8 -23.4 -11.7 -9.2
  Feb 04, 2023 327   @ Jackson St. L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 06, 2023 289   @ Alcorn St. L 61-74 10%    
  Feb 11, 2023 347   Alabama A&M L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 13, 2023 353   Alabama St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 20, 2023 287   @ Prairie View L 58-71 10%    
  Feb 25, 2023 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 65-69 35%    
  Mar 02, 2023 289   Alcorn St. L 64-72 25%    
  Mar 04, 2023 327   Jackson St. L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 4 - 28 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 2.1 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 2.0 8.8 14.0 7.4 0.7 0.0 32.9 11th
12th 7.5 20.1 19.9 8.6 1.1 0.0 57.3 12th
Total 7.5 22.1 28.7 23.1 12.3 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.2% 1.2
6-12 4.7% 4.7
5-13 12.3% 12.3
4-14 23.1% 23.1
3-15 28.7% 28.7
2-16 22.1% 22.1
1-17 7.5% 7.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.5%