Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#292
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#209
Pace75.3#51
Improvement-1.6#297

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#304
First Shot-2.7#259
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#304
Layup/Dunks-2.9#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#213
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement+0.2#152

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#245
First Shot-5.3#325
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#24
Layups/Dunks-7.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#31
Freethrows-2.7#314
Improvement-1.8#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 12.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 42.0% 64.3% 37.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 83.5% 74.8%
Conference Champion 9.1% 13.8% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four7.9% 9.7% 7.5%
First Round4.9% 7.7% 4.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 36   @ Louisville L 60-72 3%     0 - 1 +2.5 -7.0 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2021 168   @ Tulane W 73-70 17%     1 - 1 +5.9 -1.5 +7.2
  Nov 16, 2021 184   @ Rice L 63-81 20%     1 - 2 -16.1 -18.7 +4.3
  Nov 19, 2021 243   @ South Dakota L 68-71 29%     1 - 3 -4.3 -6.6 +2.4
  Nov 21, 2021 107   @ Nebraska L 59-82 10%     1 - 4 -15.8 -15.7 +2.1
  Nov 28, 2021 321   @ Tennessee St. W 82-80 46%     2 - 4 -4.0 +0.7 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2021 165   @ Akron L 63-73 17%    
  Dec 07, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 60-86 1%    
  Dec 11, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 19, 2021 137   @ Kent St. L 64-76 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 113   @ Dayton L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 03, 2022 199   Texas Southern L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 05, 2022 242   Prairie View W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 305   @ Florida A&M L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 10, 2022 345   @ Bethune-Cookman W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 324   @ Grambling St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-63 92%    
  Jan 24, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 87-66 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 315   @ Alcorn St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 31, 2022 258   @ Jackson St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 342   Alabama A&M W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 07, 2022 339   Alabama St. W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 12, 2022 242   @ Prairie View L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 14, 2022 199   @ Texas Southern L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 324   Grambling St. W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 345   Bethune-Cookman W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 28, 2022 305   Florida A&M W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 03, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. W 74-71 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 342   @ Alabama A&M W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 4.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 6.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 6.5 3.9 0.5 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.9 4.1 0.7 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.6 4.6 0.7 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.7 3.9 1.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 4.0 7.4 9.4 11.6 14.2 14.2 13.1 9.7 7.2 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 93.2% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 77.8% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.0% 2.8    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
13-5 10.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.6 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 33.5% 33.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.6% 36.4% 36.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 1.0
15-3 4.0% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 2.8
14-4 7.2% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4 5.8
13-5 9.7% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3 8.4
12-6 13.1% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 1.5 11.6
11-7 14.2% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 1.1 13.1
10-8 14.2% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 1.1 13.1
9-9 11.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 11.1
8-10 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 9.1
7-11 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-12 4.0% 4.0
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 9.0 90.8 0.0%