Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#236
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#226
Pace79.2#9
Improvement+0.1#170

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#312
First Shot-2.3#259
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#329
Layup/Dunks-3.1#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows-0.5#230
Improvement+0.3#121

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#150
First Shot-1.3#224
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#28
Layups/Dunks+1.5#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows-3.1#347
Improvement-0.2#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.4% 37.9% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 91.3% 94.6% 79.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 72.0% 77.1% 53.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.3% 11.4% 15.5%
First Round30.2% 32.1% 23.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 10 - 7
Quad 416 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 82   @ UNLV L 56-66 11%     0 - 1 -0.8 -16.1 +16.3
  Nov 11, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 78-95 3%     0 - 2 +1.6 -0.7 +5.3
  Nov 16, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 54-72 3%     0 - 3 -0.3 -2.0 +0.0
  Nov 18, 2022 221   @ California W 74-66 36%     1 - 3 +7.7 +7.7 +0.6
  Nov 25, 2022 333   Loyola Maryland W 76-58 73%     2 - 3 +7.7 -6.8 +12.9
  Nov 26, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha L 78-88 66%     2 - 4 -18.1 -7.4 -9.8
  Dec 02, 2022 140   @ Louisiana Tech L 59-74 22%     2 - 5 -10.6 -14.3 +4.3
  Dec 13, 2022 20   @ Xavier L 59-79 4%     2 - 6 -3.4 -15.4 +14.3
  Dec 16, 2022 134   @ Youngstown St. L 81-85 20%     2 - 7 +0.8 -1.4 +2.5
  Dec 18, 2022 71   @ UAB L 66-92 10%     2 - 8 -15.5 -12.1 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2022 271   @ SE Louisiana L 62-80 47%     2 - 9 -21.1 -15.2 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2023 312   @ Texas Southern W 77-76 OT 56%     3 - 9 1 - 0 -4.5 -5.8 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2023 286   @ Prairie View W 66-62 50%     4 - 9 2 - 0 +0.1 -8.6 +8.4
  Jan 07, 2023 359   Florida A&M W 84-66 91%     5 - 9 3 - 0 -1.0 +7.8 -8.4
  Jan 09, 2023 355   Bethune-Cookman W 102-75 89%     6 - 9 4 - 0 +9.8 +6.1 +0.0
  Jan 14, 2023 232   Grambling St. W 81-73 60%     7 - 9 5 - 0 +1.6 -1.3 +2.0
  Jan 21, 2023 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 55-62 63%     7 - 10 5 - 1 -14.4 -16.5 +2.0
  Jan 23, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 84-70 84%     8 - 10 6 - 1 -0.5 +3.6 -4.5
  Jan 28, 2023 294   Alcorn St. W 80-68 72%     9 - 10 7 - 1 +2.1 -1.5 +3.0
  Jan 30, 2023 326   Jackson St. W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 342   @ Alabama A&M W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 06, 2023 352   @ Alabama St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 286   Prairie View W 71-66 71%    
  Feb 13, 2023 312   Texas Southern W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 18, 2023 232   Grambling St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 25, 2023 355   Bethune-Cookman W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 27, 2023 359   @ Florida A&M W 70-60 81%    
  Mar 02, 2023 352   Alabama St. W 77-65 87%    
  Mar 04, 2023 342   Alabama A&M W 78-68 84%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.2 15.5 24.9 19.8 7.3 72.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 8.1 7.4 1.9 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.4 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.1 14.2 23.3 26.8 19.8 7.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 7.3    7.3
16-2 100.0% 19.8    18.8 1.0
15-3 92.8% 24.9    18.6 6.0 0.2
14-4 66.5% 15.5    7.5 6.7 1.2 0.0
13-5 29.3% 4.2    1.0 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 72.0% 72.0 53.2 15.8 2.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 7.3% 56.8% 56.8% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.7 0.5 3.2
16-2 19.8% 47.3% 47.3% 15.5 0.4 3.8 5.1 10.4
15-3 26.8% 39.1% 39.1% 15.7 0.1 2.6 7.8 16.3
14-4 23.3% 31.6% 31.6% 15.9 0.0 0.9 6.4 15.9
13-5 14.2% 24.8% 24.8% 16.0 0.1 3.4 10.7
12-6 6.1% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2 4.9
11-7 2.0% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.2 1.8
10-8 0.5% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.1 0.4
9-9 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.4% 36.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 1.5 10.1 24.7 63.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 56.8% 14.9 0.7 13.3 36.4 6.5