Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#203
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#249
Pace80.3#10
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#240
First Shot-2.9#260
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#229
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-0.9#255

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot-1.6#231
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#78
Layups/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#285
Freethrows-2.2#314
Improvement+0.8#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 32.6% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 58.2% 76.2% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 96.1% 93.0%
Conference Champion 49.9% 58.9% 47.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.0% 6.9% 10.8%
First Round23.4% 29.5% 21.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 415 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 21 @Arkansas L 77-109 3%     0 - 1 -13.4 +1.5 -10.5
  Wed, Nov 5 88 @Marquette L 82-100 14%     0 - 2 -9.1 +5.1 -12.1
  Tue, Nov 18 50 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 7%     0 - 3 +7.9 +3.1 +6.2
  Fri, Nov 21 188 @San Jose St. L 66-80 35%     0 - 4 -12.8 -7.5 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 29 273 @Northwestern St. W 75-73 50%     1 - 4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.6
  Mon, Dec 8 41 @Texas L 69-95 6%     1 - 5 -11.2 -0.3 -10.3
  Wed, Dec 10 240 @Texas St. L 83-86 45%     1 - 6 -4.4 +1.4 -5.5
  Tue, Dec 16 126 @California Baptist L 71-79 22%    
  Sun, Dec 21 32 @Baylor L 74-93 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 14 @Illinois L 70-94 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 330 @Alcorn St. W 82-77 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 318 Texas Southern W 84-74 81%    
  Mon, Jan 5 326 Prairie View W 85-75 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 343 @Florida A&M W 81-75 70%    
  Mon, Jan 12 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Grambling St. W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-76 88%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-65 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 330 @Alcorn St. W 82-77 67%    
  Mon, Feb 2 315 @Jackson St. W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 Alabama A&M W 78-71 75%    
  Mon, Feb 9 265 Alabama St. W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 326 @Prairie View W 82-78 64%    
  Mon, Feb 16 318 @Texas Southern W 81-77 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Grambling St. W 77-70 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 343 Florida A&M W 84-72 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 227 Bethune-Cookman W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 265 @Alabama St. L 79-80 49%    
  Thu, Mar 5 290 @Alabama A&M W 75-74 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 6.0 10.5 12.3 9.9 6.2 2.6 49.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.5 6.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.9 12.2 13.9 14.0 13.1 10.0 6.2 2.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
17-1 99.9% 6.2    6.1 0.0
16-2 99.1% 9.9    9.5 0.4
15-3 94.1% 12.3    10.2 2.0 0.1
14-4 75.1% 10.5    6.5 3.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 43.3% 6.0    2.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.1% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.2% 49.2 37.3 9.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.6% 56.6% 56.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.1
17-1 6.2% 46.4% 46.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 3.3
16-2 10.0% 41.7% 41.7% 15.2 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.5 5.8
15-3 13.1% 35.8% 35.8% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 8.4
14-4 14.0% 30.6% 30.6% 15.7 0.1 1.0 3.2 9.7
13-5 13.9% 26.1% 26.1% 15.8 0.0 0.6 3.1 10.3
12-6 12.2% 21.9% 21.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6 9.6
11-7 9.9% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7 8.2
10-8 7.0% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 1.0 6.0
9-9 4.7% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.5 4.2
8-10 2.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.2 2.7
7-11 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.4 17.0 72.8 0.0%