Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 265
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 280
Pace 72.9 67
Improvement -0.2 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 270 D C- C C D
Defense C- 240 D D+ B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 225 D+ 55% 268 -2.2 263
2 Pt. Jumpers 54% 33 D 34% 316 +1.8 84
Three Pointers 34% 310 D+ 32% 266 -4.4 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 317 D -3.6 305
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 317
Second Chance C 29.9% 198 C- 0.99 234 C- 0.30 211
Turnovers C 16.7% 170
Freethrows C+ 0.32 142 D 69% 298 C 0.22 187
Total Offense D+ -3.7 270

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 216 C+ 10.4% 144
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 82 D 7.8% 323
Three Pointers D 77% 314 B- 0.5% 97
Total D+ 51% 274 C- 6.3% 253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 C- 61% 250 -1.0 137
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 C- 40% 244 -0.3 165
Three Pointers 46% 47 F+ 38% 345 +5.6 353
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 162 D- +4.3 328
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 315
Second Chance C- 31.9% 243 D+ 1.10 287 D+ 0.35 285
Turnovers B- 18.9% 68
Freethrows D- 0.36 327 D- 76% 336 F+ 0.28 344
Total Defense C- -2.2 240

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 271 C+ 12.0% 131
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 237 A 10.2% 12
Three Pointers D 89% 314 C+ 1.1% 97
Total D 62% 319 B- 6.7% 95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 100 16.7 83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 124 0.21 311
Improvement -0.5 #212 +0.3 #175

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21% 22% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12% 17% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 27% 35% 12%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 19% 17%
First Round12% 14% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 10 - 8
Quad 413 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 1% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -11 C- -1 C- B- B+ D -5 B- C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 5 87 @Marquette L 82 - 100 9% -9  11% 0 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 C C A- F+ -9 F B D-
 Tue, Nov 18 45 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  61% 0 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 C- A+ D- A- +8 A C- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 222 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 30% -8  6% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -11 F+ F D+ D+ -3 D D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 277 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 42% +8  92% 1 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 C D+ D- C -1 D+ F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 27 @Texas L 69 - 95 2% -17  0% 1 - 5 D+ -8 D+ -3 B- F F D+ -4 F+ F+ B+
 Wed, Dec 10 232 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 32% +2  66% 1 - 6 C- -4 C- -1 C+ C+ F C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 135 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 17% -4  6% 1 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 D B F C -0 C- B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 48 @Baylor L 67 - 111 4% -15  12% 1 - 8 F -30 D+ -4 F A+ A F -26 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  0% 1 - 9 D -10 D- -7 F A- C+ D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 308 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 71% +8  92% 2 - 9 1 - 0 C -1 D- -6 B- D- C+ B +5 B D A-
 Mon, Jan 5 334 Prairie View L 85 - 89 79% -5  9% 2 - 10 1 - 1 F -18 D+ -3 F D+ B- F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 59% -4  9% 2 - 11 1 - 2 F+ -16 F -16 F F D C -1 C- F+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 245 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 34% -4  11% 3 - 11 2 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 F B+ B- B- +2 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 292 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 44% +11  88% 4 - 11 3 - 2 B+ +14 D+ -3 C F C+ A+ +16 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 318 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 75% +2  72% 4 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 D- -8 F A+ F+ D -6 C F+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 69 96% +5  95% 5 - 12 4 - 3 F+ -16 D -6 F C+ C- F -10 F+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 78 66% -1  34% 5 - 13 4 - 4 F+ -15 C- -2 F D B+ F -14 F D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 2 332 @Jackson St. W 96 - 91 OT 59% +11  97% 6 - 13 5 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 C- F+ A- D- -7 F D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 309 Alabama A&M W 81 - 68 71% +8  98% 7 - 13 6 - 4 C +1 B +6 B- B+ B D+ -4 C+ F F
 Mon, Feb 9 306 Alabama St. W 69 - 68 71% +0  52% 8 - 13 7 - 4 D -11 D -6 F D A D+ -5 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 334 @Prairie View W 87 - 82 59% +0  35% 9 - 13 8 - 4 C- -3 C +1 D C+ A D+ -4 D- C+ C
 Mon, Feb 16 308 @Texas Southern L 73 - 74 49% +6  84% 9 - 14 8 - 5 D+ -7 F+ -8 D- F C- C+ +1 D C+ A-
 Sat, Feb 21 292 Grambling St. W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 333 Florida A&M W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 Bethune-Cookman W 76 - 74 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 306 @Alabama St. L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 309 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 7 -6 D+ -4 F D D C- -2 D+ D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D D+ D 37% 54% 34% D D C C- C- C C+ D C C- C- C- F+ D- 35% 19% 46% C D C- D+ D+ B- D- D- F+
1.03 55% 34% 32% -4 -1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 17% .32 69% .22 1.12 61% 40% 38% +4 0 1.11 32% 1.1 .35 19% .36 76% .24
Nov
3		 Arkansas C- C- F A+ C+ 26% 33% 41% F C- C A B- B+ A+ F C D F B- B C+ 40% 23% 37% B- B- C- B+ C+ C- F F F
0.95 53% 11% 42% -5 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16 1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35
Nov
5		 Marquette C+ C- D+ C C- 56% 16% 27% A- C D B+ C A- A+ D+ A+ F+ F C- F+ F 33% 8% 59% B+ F B+ C B D- B- F C-
1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32 1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23
Nov
18		 Washington C+ C F C+ C- 34% 37% 29% D C- B+ A+ A+ D- A+ D A+ A- B- A C+ A 36% 38% 26% A- A D+ C C- B- F B F
1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30 1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47
Nov
21		 San Jose St. F C C F F+ 33% 24% 43% D- F+ D- F F D+ D B D+ D+ C+ C F D- 30% 36% 34% B+ D F+ C+ D A+ F C- F
0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20 1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40
Nov
29		 Northwestern St. C- D F A+ C- 56% 14% 30% A- C C+ D- D+ D- F F F C A+ F F D+ 36% 22% 42% D D+ F+ F+ F B+ B A B+
1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13 1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18
Dec
8		 Texas D+ C+ D A+ B 46% 32% 22% C B- B+ F F F A+ F B D+ D+ C- F F+ 42% 16% 42% D+ F+ C+ F F+ B+ F F F
0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28 1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50
Dec
10		 Texas St. C- B C- A+ B 26% 31% 43% F C+ C C+ C+ F C- D D+ C- D- D+ F F 53% 15% 32% F F C+ A+ A+ A F B- F
1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22 1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38
Dec
16		 California Baptist D+ F F B D 38% 24% 38% C- D B+ B- B F B B- B C D- C- B D+ 25% 10% 65% C+ C- B B B+ D+ F F F
0.97 42% 25% 37% -8 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27 1.08 62% 40% 30% -2 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36
Dec
21		 Baylor D+ A+ D- F F+ 7% 61% 31% F F C A+ A+ A D+ F F+ F F D+ F F 19% 35% 46% A- F D C- D F F+ D+ F+
0.96 75% 33% 24% -6 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13 1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois D- C- F F F 31% 44% 25% D F B+ B A- C+ C- B+ C D F A+ F F 30% 11% 59% C+ F F B F A+ D F F
0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -4 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11 1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32
Jan
3		 Texas Southern D- A- B+ C+ B 37% 29% 33% F B- F A+ D- C+ A+ F B+ B F B+ A+ B- 30% 34% 36% A B A F D A- F F F
1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31 0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41
Jan
5		 Prairie View D+ F F A+ F 49% 24% 27% C- F C- D+ D+ B- A+ A A+ F F F D F 33% 41% 26% B+ F C F F B- D+ B+ C-
1.12 46% 25% 46% -4 0 0.94 36% 1.0 .36 17% .56 80% .44 1.17 67% 55% 36% +10 -3 1.17 23% 1.9 .42 17% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Florida A&M F D A+ F F 32% 29% 39% F F C- F F D A+ F A C D A+ B C 38% 14% 48% F C- F C F+ A F F F
0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34 1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35
Jan
12		 Bethune-Cookman C F F D+ F 49% 21% 30% C- F B B- B+ B- A+ C+ A+ B- D- F C+ F+ 43% 17% 40% D F+ B- A+ A+ A- D- F F
1.06 42% 18% 31% -13 +1 0.77 37% 1.2 .46 14% .48 73% .35 1.01 65% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.11 25% 0.5 .13 22% .37 81% .30
Jan
17		 Grambling St. D+ F+ B- B+ C- 46% 10% 44% B C D- F F C+ B F D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 53% 9% 38% F A+ F C- F+ A+ F B+ F
1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23 0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47
Jan
24		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- A C+ F F 30% 28% 41% F F B+ A+ A+ F+ A B- A D B C- C- C 31% 18% 51% D+ C A F F+ C- F B F
1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36 1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35
Jan
28		 Mississippi Valley D A A F D- 27% 49% 24% F F F+ A+ C+ C- A+ A A+ F B- F D F 18% 41% 41% B F+ F B- D- C- A+ A A+
1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42 1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09
Jan
31		 Alcorn St. C- C B F F 36% 20% 43% D- F C- D- D B+ A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 40% 9% 51% F F C- D D+ A- F F+ F
1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33 1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24
Feb
2		 Jackson St. C+ C- C- B C- 46% 20% 34% C C- C F F+ A- A+ F A- D- B+ C- F F 26% 26% 48% C+ F C- D D+ F+ F C- F
1.19 61% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 36% 0.8 .27 11% .48 65% .31 1.13 47% 40% 43% +4 -2 1.07 28% 1.1 .30 15% .45 77% .35
Feb
7		 Alabama A&M B B B- B+ B- 45% 20% 35% C B- A C- B+ B B- B+ B+ D+ A- A+ F C 35% 37% 28% A C+ C- F F F F A F
1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28 1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama St. D A- F D F 27% 35% 39% F F D+ D D A A C+ A D+ D A- F D- 24% 43% 33% A+ C- F F F A+ F B+ F
1.05 69% 18% 32% -5 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33 1.03 60% 28% 43% +1 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31
Feb
14		 Prairie View C B- B+ F D- 52% 21% 27% C+ D C- B C+ A A+ B- A+ D+ C- C- D+ D- 37% 25% 38% D- D- B+ F+ C+ C F D+ F
1.13 63% 45% 21% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .42 14% .50 76% .38 1.07 58% 38% 35% +1 -1 1.02 17% 1.2 .20 16% .49 78% .38
Feb
16		 Texas Southern F+ F B+ A+ D 38% 21% 40% D D- D- F F C- D- D+ F+ C+ D+ C- C D 45% 20% 35% F+ D C B- C+ A- B+ F C+
1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21 1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.2 15.9 8.2 27.4 1st
2nd 0.9 18.0 9.6 28.5 2nd
3rd 6.2 10.8 0.3 17.3 3rd
4th 0.3 10.4 1.4 12.1 4th
5th 2.1 4.9 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 3.7 0.4 4.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.6 0.3 0.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.1 8.5 22.8 33.5 25.9 8.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 8.2    6.0 2.1 0.1
12-6 61.7% 15.9    3.5 8.4 3.7 0.4 0.0
11-7 9.6% 3.2    0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 9.5 10.8 4.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.2% 29.0% 29.0% 15.7 0.7 1.7 5.9
12-6 25.9% 24.6% 24.6% 16.0 0.0 6.3 19.5
11-7 33.5% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 7.0 26.5
10-8 22.8% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 3.8 19.0
9-9 8.5% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 1.1 7.4
8-10 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 16.0 79.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 15.7 29.5 70.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%
Lose Out 1.1%