Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.1 309
Results Rating -11.0 329
Consistency 0.17 264
Pace 71.1 109
Improvement +3.5 66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 304 D+ D+ C- D+ D+
Defense D+ 294 D+ D C- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 151 C- 56% 230 -0.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 52% 45 C 38% 199 +2.2 71
Three Pointers 34% 321 D+ 31% 288 -4.9 332
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 286 D+ -2.3 262
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 278
Second Chance D+ 26.2% 294 C- 1.01 210 D+ 0.27 280
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 206
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 255
Turnovers C- 17.5% 231
Freethrows C- 0.29 239 D+ 70% 253 D+ 0.20 248
Total Offense D -5.2 304

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 36% 339 C+ 10.5% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 241 B- 3.5% 71
Three Pointers F 69% 361 B 0.4% 54
Total F 41% 361 C+ 5.2% 142


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 D+ 61% 254 +0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 D+ 41% 287 -2.1 30
Three Pointers 48% 19 C- 35% 236 +4.3 340
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 321 D+ +2.0 265
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 277
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 292 D+ 1.08 270 D 0.36 295
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.0% 206
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 271
Turnovers C- 15.6% 245
Freethrows D- 0.36 334 B- 71% 78 D 0.26 312
Total Defense D+ -4.0 294

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 282 C 11.0% 172
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 217 A- 9.1% 23
Three Pointers C+ 82% 132 D 0.1% 342
Total D+ 60% 290 C 5.5% 179

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 155 16.7 68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 85 0.19 267
Consistency 0.12 175 0.12 150
Improvement +0.2 176 +3.3 36

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 320 314 299
Results Rating Rank 341 339 293
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 19% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four9% 19% 0%
First Round4% 9% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 411 - 1111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  12% 0 - 1 F -33 F -22 F C D- F+ -9 C F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 32 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  19% 0 - 2 F+ -16 D+ -4 B+ B- F F+ -9 D- D- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 203 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 35% +1  47% 0 - 3 D -8 C+ +2 A- F A+ F+ -10 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 15 233 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 23% -12  0% 0 - 4 D -11 F+ -8 D D F C- -3 D+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 18 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  2% 0 - 5 D- -14 C+ +3 A+ F C+ F -14 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 113 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 19% -6  27% 0 - 6 D- -12 F -15 F C- D- B +5 A B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 63 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 3% -20  1% 0 - 7 F -24 F -16 F F F D- -8 F C C
 Wed, Dec 17 36 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 2% -24  0% 0 - 8 F -19 C +1 F+ A B- F -20 F+ F D
 Mon, Dec 22 256 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 47% +2  65% 0 - 9 F+ -15 D- -7 D C- B D- -8 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Southern L 73 - 84 29% -8  2% 0 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -12 F D+ F+ C -1 F C+ C-
 Mon, Jan 5 307 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 38% -9  7% 0 - 11 0 - 2 F -23 D- -6 F A+ F+ F -17 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 324 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 66% -8  10% 0 - 12 0 - 3 F -21 F -16 F F C D -6 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 92% +18  98% 1 - 12 1 - 3 B- +8 C +1 A- D F A- +8 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 354 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 61% +1  54% 2 - 12 2 - 3 D -11 D+ -2 D- D- A F+ -9 C C- D
 Mon, Jan 19 346 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 54% -5  1% 2 - 13 2 - 4 F+ -15 B- +4 B D- C+ F -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 305 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 60% -1  46% 3 - 13 3 - 4 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ C- A D -6 F C B-
 Tue, Jan 27 317 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 63% +16  99% 4 - 13 4 - 4 A +19 A +12 A+ C B+ B+ +6 A D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 42% -2  30% 4 - 14 4 - 5 D- -14 D+ -4 D A C+ F+ -9 D D+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 315 @Florida A&M W 62 - 57 40% +4  78% 5 - 14 5 - 5 C -1 D- -8 C F F A- +7 B- A A
 Mon, Feb 9 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 79 OT 24% +2  55% 5 - 15 5 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 F D- C C- -2 A- F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 307 Grambling St. W 82 - 79 61% +2  57% 6 - 15 6 - 6 D -9 B- +5 A+ B+ D F -14 F A D
 Mon, Feb 16 275 Southern W 74 - 73 51% -6  9% 7 - 15 7 - 6 D -8 F+ -9 C- F+ F+ C+ +0 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Feb 19 324 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 64 43% +2  59% 8 - 15 8 - 6 B+ +12 B +6 B C- A B+ +6 C- A C-
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley L 71 - 72 83% -1  40% 8 - 16 8 - 7 F -20 F+ -10 F F C+ F -10 F+ D- D
 Thu, Feb 26 354 Alcorn St. W 92 - 87 OT 80% -4  14% 9 - 16 9 - 7 D- -13 C- -2 D+ F A+ F -11 C F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 346 Jackson St. W 82 - 57 75% +9  85% 10 - 16 10 - 7 B +9 D+ -4 B B+ F A+ +12 A+ D D-
 Thu, Mar 5 320 Prairie View L 59 - 70 64% -6  33% 10 - 17 10 - 8 F -24 F -19 F F+ A D -6 F B+ C+
 Thu, Mar 12 305 Alabama A&M L 73 - 74 49%
Totals 10 - 18 10 - 8 -9 D -5 F D+ D+ D+ -4 D+ D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C D+ D+ 39% 52% 34% D+ D+ D+ C- D+ C- C- D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C- D+ 38% 14% 48% D D+ D+ D+ D C- D- B- D
1.01 56% 38% 31% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.0 .27 17% .29 70% .20 1.14 61% 41% 35% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.1 .36 16% .36 71% .20
Nov
3		 Gonzaga F F F F F 30% 34% 36% D+ F C+ C- C D- B- F C- F+ C- F B+ B 52% 13% 36% F C F C- F A- F+ F F
0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18 1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29
Nov
6		 Texas A&M D+ B- A+ B- A 35% 33% 33% D- B+ C+ B B- F A+ F A F+ F F D- F+ 39% 7% 54% C D- A+ F D- F+ F B+ F
0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28 1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38
Nov
12		 Samford C+ C+ F+ A+ A 39% 36% 25% D+ A- F D- F A+ C F D+ F+ A F C+ B- 37% 8% 55% F C B F F D+ F C+ F
1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20 1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44
Nov
15		 Texas St. F+ C- A- F D 47% 29% 24% D D C F D F A+ F A+ C- D C+ B- D+ 43% 22% 35% F+ D+ C F F A F C+ F
0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33 1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44
Nov
20		 Vanderbilt C+ A B+ A+ A+ 20% 50% 30% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F A F F F C- D- 35% 10% 55% D D- F C- F C- C C+ C
0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31 1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
6		 Sam Houston St. F F+ F F F 41% 19% 41% B- F C D+ C- D- A+ B A+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% F A C+ B B- C+ F C- F
0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33 1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35
Dec
14		 Minnesota F C- C+ F F 33% 31% 37% D+ F F+ F F F C+ A+ A D- F A+ F F 29% 8% 63% C F C C+ C C F D+ F
0.76 56% 40% 17% -10 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23 1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31
Dec
17		 North Carolina St. C D+ C+ F F 43% 15% 43% B- F+ A- A- A B- B A- A- F B- F F F 30% 11% 58% C+ F+ F C F D F F F
1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26 1.52 56% 67% 45% +12 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36
Dec
22		 Abilene Christian D- A F F D- 57% 20% 24% C+ D F A+ C- B F D F D- F A+ A- D 41% 20% 39% D+ D B- F D- C+ F F F
0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23 1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40
Jan
3		 Southern F A D- F F 30% 34% 36% F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ B- A+ C F F D+ F 37% 29% 33% C+ F A+ F C+ C- F A F
0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41 1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31
Jan
5		 Grambling St. D- F D F F 34% 30% 36% F F D+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D F F A F F 25% 18% 57% B- F F D F F+ F A- F
0.96 41% 33% 28% -11 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20 1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D- D+ F F 52% 21% 27% C+ F F+ D- F C B- F+ C D F A+ D F 44% 18% 38% F+ F B- C+ B- F+ B A- B+
0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27 1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19
Jan
12		 Mississippi Valley C D+ F A+ A- 31% 10% 60% C+ A- D- B- D F F C F A- A A+ B- A+ 47% 31% 22% F A F F F A- D A+ A+
1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17 0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12
Jan
17		 Alcorn St. D+ F+ A F+ F+ 62% 22% 16% C D- D- C D- A A+ F A+ F+ D A A+ B- 46% 9% 46% F C D C+ C- D F F F
1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +2 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38 1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39
Jan
19		 Jackson St. B- A+ B F B- 41% 9% 50% B B C+ F D- C+ B D C+ F F F D- F 38% 24% 38% D F C+ C C F F F F
1.22 83% 40% 29% +6 +2 1.18 38% 0.8 .31 15% .39 71% .27 1.29 74% 58% 37% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.0 .27 14% .45 86% .38
Jan
24		 Alabama A&M A- B+ F A+ A 37% 24% 39% D B+ D B C- A A- B- A- D C+ F F F 42% 24% 33% D F B- D- C B- D+ A C+
1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30 1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23
Jan
27		 Alabama St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C A+ A- F C B+ A- A+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% F A D+ D- D- F+ F A+ F
1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35 0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +3 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27
Jan
31		 Prairie View D+ F B A- D+ 42% 28% 30% D D C A+ A C+ A F C+ F+ F+ B+ B D+ 35% 23% 42% F+ D C F D+ F D D- D-
1.05 48% 43% 40% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.5 .53 17% .44 63% .28 1.14 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.2 .29 9% .37 80% .30
Feb
7		 Florida A&M D- F A+ A+ C 46% 26% 28% D+ C C- F F F F B F A- A C C+ B- 30% 26% 44% B- B- F A+ A A F C+ F
0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16 0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29
Feb
9		 Bethune-Cookman F+ F B F F 31% 27% 42% F F D- D+ D- C A+ B A+ C- A- A+ F B+ 31% 35% 33% A+ A- F F+ F C- F B- F
0.93 44% 43% 18% -13 -1 0.73 27% 1.1 .29 15% .46 76% .35 1.06 50% 17% 41% -7 -2 0.84 40% 1.2 .47 18% .57 66% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Grambling St. B- A D A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% B- A+ F A+ B+ D A+ F+ A+ F F F C- F 37% 10% 53% F+ F B+ A+ A D F B- F+
1.17 71% 33% 47% +14 +2 1.33 23% 1.8 .42 21% .49 67% .33 1.12 68% 60% 33% +5 +1 1.16 23% 0.7 .16 18% .40 70% .28
Feb
16		 Southern F+ C C+ D+ D+ 45% 20% 35% C+ C- D- F+ F+ F+ F B- F C+ A+ F F C- 38% 21% 40% D D+ B- A- B+ C C+ C C+
1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19 1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21
Feb
19		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B C+ A+ B- B+ 33% 22% 45% D- B F A+ C- A F A+ F B+ B+ D+ D+ C- 26% 21% 53% C+ C- C- A+ A C- F A+ D
1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13 0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27
Feb
21		 Mississippi Valley F+ D- B+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F F C+ F C+ A F+ B- F F D- A F 25% 42% 33% B- F+ F B- D- D F A- D
1.04 53% 47% 29% -2 -2 0.96 23% 1.3 .30 16% .49 68% .33 1.05 75% 45% 25% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Feb
26		 Alcorn St. C- B+ F F D+ 60% 19% 21% C+ D+ D F F A+ C+ A- B F C B A B- 44% 18% 39% F+ C D- F F F+ F D- F
1.16 70% 25% 23% +1 +2 1.08 33% 0.7 .23 13% .34 79% .27 1.09 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.5 .44 15% .40 74% .30
Feb
28		 Jackson St. D+ A- B B B+ 45% 21% 34% C- B A- C+ B+ F D+ A C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 25% 18% 56% D A+ D- C D D- F+ A+ D+
1.15 71% 40% 38% +8 0 1.19 45% 1.1 .48 27% .33 82% .27 0.80 14% 30% 23% -22 -1 0.56 33% 1.0 .33 15% .35 67% .23
Mar
5		 Prairie View F F F F F 39% 33% 28% F F C+ F F+ A C+ F+ C- D A+ B- F F 31% 24% 45% D F D+ A+ B+ C+ B+ A+ A
0.88 48% 22% 13% -18 -2 0.63 38% 0.8 .29 13% .38 68% .26 1.04 40% 33% 50% +4 -1 1.08 26% 0.7 .18 16% .29 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 9.0 91.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 16.0 91.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.0% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.5%
Lose Out 51.7%