Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.7 307
Results Rating -10.2 323
Consistency 0.16 220
Pace 71.8 95
Improvement +3.7 49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 286 D+ D+ C- C- D+
Defense D 304 D+ D C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 C- 56% 234 -0.4 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 52% 42 C 38% 178 +2.3 66
Three Pointers 34% 315 D+ 32% 270 -4.5 325
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 280 C- -1.9 244
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 262
Second Chance D 25.5% 314 C 1.03 175 D+ 0.26 290
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 199
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 227
Turnovers C- 17.2% 209
Freethrows C- 0.29 224 C- 70% 247 C- 0.21 234
Total Offense D+ -4.4 286

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 347 C 11.1% 189
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 234 B+ 2.4% 23
Three Pointers F 69% 363 B+ 0.2% 30
Total F 40% 362 C+ 5.1% 121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 181 D+ 62% 282 +1.5 227
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 348 D 42% 319 -1.8 40
Three Pointers 47% 28 C- 35% 220 +3.7 332
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 324 D+ +2.4 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 293
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 287 D 1.11 290 D 0.37 308
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.0% 212
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 266
Turnovers C- 15.7% 247
Freethrows D- 0.37 338 C+ 71% 116 D- 0.26 327
Total Defense D -4.4 304

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 271 C 10.6% 189
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 200 B+ 8.3% 42
Three Pointers C+ 82% 125 D 0.2% 339
Total D+ 60% 272 C 5.4% 190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 168 16.5 39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 100 0.20 277
Consistency 0.12 180 0.11 85
Improvement +1.4 112 +2.3 64

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 321 306 283
Results Rating Rank 340 318 256
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 12% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four11% 12% 10%
First Round5% 6% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 411 - 1111 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  12% 0 - 1 F -33 F -23 F C D F+ -8 C F A
 Thu, Nov 6 34 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  19% 0 - 2 F+ -17 D -5 B+ C+ F F+ -9 D- D- F
 Wed, Nov 12 195 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 36% +1  47% 0 - 3 D+ -8 C+ +2 A- F A+ F+ -10 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 236 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 24% -12  0% 0 - 4 D -11 F+ -8 D D F C- -3 D F A
 Thu, Nov 20 16 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  2% 0 - 5 D- -13 C+ +3 A+ F C+ F -14 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 105 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 18% -6  27% 0 - 6 D -11 F -14 F C- D B +5 A+ B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 59 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 4% -20  1% 0 - 7 F -24 F -15 F F+ F F+ -8 F C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 27 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 2% -24  0% 0 - 8 F -18 C+ +3 D- A B F -20 F+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 240 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 45% +2  65% 0 - 9 D- -14 D- -8 D D+ B D- -7 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 273 @Southern L 73 - 84 31% -8  2% 0 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -12 F D+ D- C- -2 F C D+
 Mon, Jan 5 300 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 36% -9  7% 0 - 11 0 - 2 F -22 D- -7 F A+ F+ F -16 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 69% -8  10% 0 - 12 0 - 3 F -22 F -17 F F C- D -5 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 94% +18  98% 1 - 12 1 - 3 B- +7 C +1 B+ D F A- +7 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 344 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 53% +1  54% 2 - 12 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -2 D- D- A D -6 C+ C- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 343 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 52% -5  1% 2 - 13 2 - 4 D- -14 B- +5 B D- C F -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 308 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 62% -1  46% 3 - 13 3 - 4 C+ +3 A +11 B+ C- A+ D- -8 F C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 314 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 64% +16  99% 4 - 13 4 - 4 A +20 A +13 A+ C B+ B+ +6 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 331 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 47% -2  30% 4 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -15 D -5 D A C+ F+ -9 D D+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 318 @Florida A&M W 62 - 57 43% +4  78% 5 - 14 5 - 5 C- -2 F+ -8 C- F F A- +7 B- A A-
 Mon, Feb 9 237 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 79 OT 24% +2  55% 5 - 15 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -9 F D C C- -2 A- F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 300 Grambling St. W 82 - 79 59% +2  57% 6 - 15 6 - 6 D -8 B- +5 A+ B D+ F -13 F A D
 Mon, Feb 16 273 Southern W 74 - 73 53% -6  9% 7 - 15 7 - 6 D -8 F+ -9 C- F+ F+ C +0 D+ B C
 Thu, Feb 19 330 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 64 47% +2  59% 8 - 15 8 - 6 B +11 B- +5 B C- A- A- +7 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley L 71 - 72 86% -1  40% 8 - 16 8 - 7 F -21 F -10 F F C+ F -11 F D- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 344 Alcorn St. W 92 - 87 OT 74% -4  14% 9 - 16 9 - 7 D -11 D+ -2 D+ F A+ F+ -9 C+ F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 343 Jackson St. W 82 - 76 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 331 Prairie View W 83 - 78 69%
Totals 10 - 17 10 - 8 -9 D+ -4 F+ C- D+ D -4 D+ C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C D+ C- 39% 52% 34% D+ D+ D C D+ C- C- C- C- D D+ D C- D+ 39% 14% 47% D D+ D+ D D C- D- C+ D-
1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 -1 0.97 25% 1.0 .26 17% .29 70% .21 1.15 62% 42% 35% +2 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 16% .37 71% .21
Nov
3		 Gonzaga F F F F F 30% 34% 36% D+ F C+ C- C D C+ F D+ F+ C- F B+ B 52% 13% 36% F C F C- F A F+ F F
0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18 1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29
Nov
6		 Texas A&M D B- A+ B- A 35% 33% 33% D- B+ C+ B- C+ F A+ F A F+ F F+ D D- 39% 7% 54% C D- A+ F D- F F B+ F
0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28 1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38
Nov
12		 Samford C+ C F+ A+ A 39% 36% 25% D+ A- F D- F A+ C F D+ F+ A F C+ C+ 37% 8% 55% F C B F F C- F C F
1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20 1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44
Nov
15		 Texas St. F+ C- A F D 47% 29% 24% D- D C F D F A+ F A+ C- D C+ B- D+ 43% 22% 35% D- D C F F A F C+ F
0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33 1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44
Nov
20		 Vanderbilt C+ A A- A+ A+ 20% 50% 30% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F A F F F C D- 35% 10% 55% D D- F C F C- C C+ C
0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31 1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
6		 Sam Houston St. F F+ F F F 41% 19% 41% B- F C D+ C- D A+ B A+ B B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% F A+ C+ B- B- C+ F C F
0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33 1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35
Dec
14		 Minnesota F C- C+ F F 33% 31% 37% D+ F D- F F+ F C+ A+ A- F+ F A+ F F 29% 8% 63% C F C C+ C+ C- F D+ F
0.76 56% 40% 17% -10 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23 1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31
Dec
17		 North Carolina St. C+ D+ C+ F F+ 43% 15% 43% B- D- A- B+ A B B A- A- F B- F F F 30% 11% 58% C+ F+ F C F D- F F F
1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26 1.52 56% 67% 45% +12 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36
Dec
22		 Abilene Christian D- A F F D- 57% 20% 24% C+ D F A+ D+ B F D F D- F A+ A- D 41% 20% 39% D D B F D- C+ F F F
0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23 1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40
Jan
3		 Southern F A F+ F F 30% 34% 36% F F F A+ D+ D- A+ B- A+ C- F F D+ F 37% 29% 33% C F A+ F C D+ F A F
0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41 1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31
Jan
5		 Grambling St. D- F D+ F F 34% 30% 36% F F D+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D- F F A F F 25% 18% 57% B- F F D F F+ F B+ F
0.96 41% 33% 28% -11 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20 1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D- C- F F 52% 21% 27% C F F+ D- F C- B- F+ C- D F A+ D F 44% 18% 38% F F B- B- B- F+ B A- B+
0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27 1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19
Jan
12		 Mississippi Valley C D F A+ A- 31% 10% 60% C+ B+ D- B- D F F C F A- A A+ B- A+ 47% 31% 22% F A F F F A- D A+ A
1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17 0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12
Jan
17		 Alcorn St. D+ F+ A F+ F+ 62% 22% 16% C D- F+ C D- A A+ F A+ D D A A+ B 46% 9% 46% F C+ D+ C+ C- D+ F F F
1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38 1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39
Jan
19		 Jackson St. B- A+ B F B 41% 9% 50% B B C+ F D- C B D+ B- F F F D- F 38% 24% 38% D F C C C F F F F
1.22 83% 40% 29% +6 +2 1.18 38% 0.8 .31 15% .39 71% .27 1.29 74% 58% 37% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.0 .27 14% .45 86% .38
Jan
24		 Alabama A&M A B+ F A+ A 37% 24% 39% D B+ D B+ C- A+ A- B A D- C+ F F F 42% 24% 33% D+ F B- D- C C+ D+ A C+
1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30 1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23
Jan
27		 Alabama St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C A+ A- F C B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% F A+ D+ D- D- F F A+ F
1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35 0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +3 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27
Jan
31		 Prairie View D F B- A- D 42% 28% 30% D D C A+ A C+ A- F C F+ F+ B+ B D+ 35% 23% 42% F+ D C F+ D+ F D+ D D
1.05 48% 43% 40% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.5 .53 17% .44 63% .28 1.14 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.2 .29 9% .37 80% .30
Feb
7		 Florida A&M F+ F A+ A+ C 46% 26% 28% D+ C- C- F F F F B F A- A C- C+ B- 30% 26% 44% B- B- F A+ A A- F C F
0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16 0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29
Feb
9		 Bethune-Cookman F+ F B F F 31% 27% 42% F F D- C- D C A+ B A+ C- B+ A+ F B+ 31% 35% 33% A+ A- F F+ F C- F B- F
0.93 44% 43% 18% -13 -1 0.73 27% 1.1 .29 15% .46 76% .35 1.06 50% 17% 41% -6 -2 0.84 40% 1.2 .47 18% .57 66% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Grambling St. B- A D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% C+ A+ F A+ B D+ A+ F+ A F F F C F 37% 10% 53% F+ F B+ A+ A D F B- D-
1.17 71% 33% 47% +14 +2 1.33 23% 1.8 .42 21% .49 67% .33 1.12 68% 60% 33% +5 +1 1.16 23% 0.7 .16 18% .40 70% .28
Feb
16		 Southern F+ C+ C+ D+ D+ 45% 20% 35% B- C- D- D- F+ F+ F B- F C A+ F F C- 38% 21% 40% D- D+ B- B+ B C C+ C C+
1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19 1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21
Feb
19		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B- C+ A+ B- B+ 33% 22% 45% D- B F A+ C- A- F A+ F A- B+ D+ D+ C- 26% 21% 53% C+ C- C- A+ A+ C- F A+ D
1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13 0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27
Feb
21		 Mississippi Valley F D- B+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F F C+ F C+ A F+ B F F F+ A F 25% 42% 33% B- F F C+ D- D+ F B+ D-
1.04 53% 47% 29% -2 -2 0.96 23% 1.3 .30 16% .49 68% .33 1.05 75% 45% 25% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Feb
26		 Alcorn St. D+ B+ F F D+ 60% 19% 21% C+ D+ D F F A+ C+ A- B- F+ C B A B 44% 18% 39% F+ C+ D F F F+ F D- F
1.16 70% 25% 23% +1 +2 1.08 33% 0.7 .23 13% .34 79% .27 1.09 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.5 .44 15% .40 74% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.1 28.3 29.5 2nd
3rd 8.1 19.4 27.5 3rd
4th 0.1 18.2 3.5 21.8 4th
5th 0.9 10.3 11.2 5th
6th 3.9 2.2 6.1 6th
7th 3.8 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.7 40.2 51.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 51.2% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 6.5 44.6
10-8 40.2% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 4.1 36.1
9-9 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.7 7.9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 16.0 88.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.5%
Lose Out 5.3%