Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#253
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#177
Pace69.8#144
Improvement-0.1#207

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#300
First Shot-5.0#319
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#344
Freethrows-3.6#351
Improvement+0.0#195

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#181
First Shot-3.2#265
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#27
Layups/Dunks-4.1#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#198
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement+0.0#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 21.4% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 47.8% 60.1% 33.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 93.0% 87.3%
Conference Champion 19.9% 23.3% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four6.8% 6.4% 7.3%
First Round14.4% 17.9% 10.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Neutral) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 9
Quad 413 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 93   @ San Francisco L 77-90 12%     0 - 1 -4.7 -2.1 -0.7
  Nov 10, 2022 34   @ Texas Tech L 54-78 5%     0 - 2 -9.5 -12.1 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2022 38   Arizona St. W 67-66 OT 13%     1 - 2 +8.9 -5.4 +14.2
  Nov 15, 2022 89   Oral Roberts L 64-82 25%     1 - 3 -15.4 -11.3 -4.2
  Nov 16, 2022 2   @ Houston L 48-83 1%     1 - 4 -10.7 -5.5 -7.5
  Nov 18, 2022 23   @ Auburn L 56-72 4%     1 - 5 +0.9 -7.8 +9.6
  Nov 20, 2022 115   @ Samford L 63-78 16%     1 - 6 -8.5 -6.2 -3.0
  Nov 28, 2022 13   @ Kansas L 55-87 3%     1 - 7 -13.0 -4.7 -10.1
  Dec 17, 2022 270   N.C. A&T W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 18, 2022 330   Hampton W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 22, 2022 96   @ Wichita St. L 57-69 12%    
  Jan 02, 2023 226   Southern W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 04, 2023 220   Grambling St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 337   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 09, 2023 363   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 14, 2023 300   Alcorn St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 16, 2023 302   Jackson St. W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 344   @ Alabama A&M W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 23, 2023 355   @ Alabama St. W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 263   Prairie View W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 360   Florida A&M W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 06, 2023 349   Bethune-Cookman W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 220   @ Grambling St. L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 13, 2023 226   @ Southern L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 18, 2023 363   Mississippi Valley W 75-57 94%    
  Feb 20, 2023 337   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 25, 2023 302   @ Jackson St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 27, 2023 300   @ Alcorn St. W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 04, 2023 263   @ Prairie View L 68-70 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 6.4 4.2 1.6 0.3 19.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.2 5.9 1.7 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.3 5.1 0.9 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.9 8.0 11.2 14.2 15.5 15.1 12.0 8.2 4.3 1.6 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 96.7% 4.2    3.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 78.3% 6.4    4.2 2.0 0.2
14-4 43.2% 5.2    2.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.7% 2.1    0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.0 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 66.4% 66.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.6% 57.9% 57.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7
16-2 4.3% 46.8% 46.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.3
15-3 8.2% 38.7% 38.7% 15.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 5.0
14-4 12.0% 28.4% 28.4% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.9 8.6
13-5 15.1% 20.9% 20.9% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.4 11.9
12-6 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.9 0.1 2.3 13.1
11-7 14.2% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4 12.7
10-8 11.2% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.8 10.4
9-9 8.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 7.7
8-10 4.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-11 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.2 10.7 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 81.0% 12.4 4.8 52.4 14.3 9.5