Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#282
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#289
Pace68.9#195
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#211
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#312
Layup/Dunks-0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#122
Freethrows-1.7#290
Improvement+1.7#61

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#330
First Shot-3.6#300
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#284
Layups/Dunks-0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#320
Freethrows+0.9#113
Improvement-2.3#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 15.3% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 24.7% 49.0% 23.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 86.4% 76.1%
Conference Champion 11.9% 18.4% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four8.1% 7.4% 8.1%
First Round7.6% 11.5% 7.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 31 - 32 - 9
Quad 412 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 119 @Florida St. L 64-101 13%     0 - 1 -31.1 -12.8 -14.4
  Tue, Nov 11 115 @UAB W 77-74 12%     1 - 1 +9.4 +1.4 +7.8
  Mon, Nov 17 65 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -16.4 -4.8 -11.2
  Wed, Nov 19 324 @Air Force L 64-66 51%     1 - 3 -8.7 -6.6 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 357 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 77%     2 - 3 +7.0 +7.2 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 23 243 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 44%     2 - 4 -19.8 -1.4 -19.2
  Wed, Nov 26 74 @New Mexico L 87-93 6%     2 - 5 +4.8 +16.8 -11.7
  Sun, Dec 7 256 @Tennessee Martin L 64-74 35%     2 - 6 -12.4 -4.7 -8.3
  Thu, Dec 11 50 @Missouri L 77-85 4%     2 - 7 +5.9 +18.1 -13.2
  Wed, Dec 17 70 @Cincinnati L 51-88 6%     2 - 8 -26.0 -10.5 -15.7
  Mon, Dec 22 76 @Memphis L 67-84 6%    
  Mon, Dec 29 85 @Mississippi St. L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-67 90%    
  Mon, Jan 5 351 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 318 Jackson St. W 78-72 71%    
  Mon, Jan 12 331 Alcorn St. W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 281 Alabama A&M W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 327 @Prairie View W 78-77 51%    
  Mon, Jan 26 320 @Texas Southern W 77-76 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 261 Bethune-Cookman W 76-74 57%    
  Mon, Feb 2 335 Florida A&M W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 258 @Grambling St. L 70-74 36%    
  Mon, Feb 9 204 @Southern L 75-82 28%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-75 80%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 84-64 96%    
  Thu, Feb 19 335 @Florida A&M W 76-75 55%    
  Thu, Feb 19 261 @Bethune-Cookman L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 281 @Alabama A&M L 70-73 39%    
  Tue, Mar 3 204 Southern L 78-79 48%    
  Thu, Mar 5 258 Grambling St. W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.8 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.3 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.5 5.8 1.1 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.8 5.9 1.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.6 1.9 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.6 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.9 0.4 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.5 10.2 13.3 15.2 15.7 13.2 9.7 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.8% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 87.8% 2.4    1.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 64.5% 3.8    2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.4% 3.4    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.0% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.3 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 36.0% 36.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-3 2.7% 30.7% 30.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.9
14-4 5.9% 24.0% 24.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.5
13-5 9.7% 20.9% 20.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.7
12-6 13.2% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.1 2.1 10.9
11-7 15.7% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9 13.8
10-8 15.2% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.3 13.8
9-9 13.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.9 12.4
8-10 10.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.9
7-11 6.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 10.2 88.6 0.0%