Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 #331
Pace 72.8 #75
Improvement -4.4 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #312 D+ D D+ D+ C-
Defense #295 D F+ B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.06 #292 -2.5 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #90 0.69 #288 +0.8 #131
Three Pointers 38% #245 1.00 #217 -2.0 #252
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #289 -3.6 #290
Freethrows 0.29 #250 70% #253 0.20 #255
Second Chance 30.0% #204 0.83 #361 0.25 #313
Turnovers 18.5% #275
Total Offense -5.4 #312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.24 #291 -2.7 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #335 0.75 #179 +2.1 #37
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.11 #312 -4.1 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.7 #317
Freethrows 0.36 #320 76% #338 0.27 #337
Second Chance 35.7% #335 1.14 #315 0.41 #349
Turnovers 18.9% #76
Total Defense -4.1 #295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 1.7% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #284 7.3% #310
Possession Length 16.8 #124 16.5 #57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.26 #361
Improvement -6.0 #362 +1.6 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 5.5% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 56.8% 23.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 5.3% 2.2%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 49 - 1110 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 100 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 6% -20  0 - 1 -29 -12 F C+ D+ -13 C F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 120 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  1 - 1 +9 +2 C D B +6 B+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 71 @Colorado L 66 - 94 4% -19  1 - 2 -17 -5 F+ D+ C+ -12 D- D B-
 Wed, Nov 19 349 @Air Force L 64 - 66 49% +2  1 - 3 -11 -7 F+ F C- -4 D- F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 340 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 58% +9  2 - 3 +9 +8 A- F+ B- -1 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 253 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 34% -2  2 - 4 -20 +0 F+ D+ B+ -21 F F+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 45 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 2% +6  2 - 5 +9 +19 A+ A+ F+ -10 F B- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 202 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 18% +0  2 - 6 -10 -2 B+ F C- -8 B- F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 54 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  2 - 7 +5 +19 A- A+ A+ -15 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 17 52 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 3% -21  2 - 8 -24 -10 F+ F B+ -14 F+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 96 @Memphis L 67 - 88 6% -13  2 - 9 -13 -1 D- B C- -11 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 73 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  2 - 10 -27 -10 F F D- -17 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 85% +9  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 C+ F F+ -7 F+ C B+
 Mon, Jan 5 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 42% -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -19 -3 D F C+ -15 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 338 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 68% -7  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -21 F C- F -4 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 352 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 73% +6  4 - 12 2 - 2 -1 -1 C- D+ F+ -0 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 19 306 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 46% -0  4 - 13 2 - 3 -12 -9 D A+ F -4 C D C-
 Sat, Jan 24 339 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 46% +12  5 - 13 3 - 3 +6 +3 B+ D- B+ +1 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 310 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 37% -16  5 - 14 3 - 4 -38 -15 F D B- -22 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 222 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 38% -1  5 - 15 3 - 5 -21 -20 F+ F F -2 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 325 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 64% +3  6 - 15 4 - 5 -0 -1 B+ F F +1 C C+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 271 @Grambling St. L 69 - 75 28%
 Mon, Feb 9 265 @Southern L 74 - 81 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 78 65%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 63 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 325 @Florida A&M L 72 - 74 42%
 Thu, Feb 19 222 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 80 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 @Alabama A&M L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 265 Southern L 77 - 78 47%
 Thu, Mar 5 271 Grambling St. L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 9 -10 -5 D+ D D+ -4 D F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.6 1.5 0.3 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 1.7 4.1 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 6.7 1.6 8.4 5th
6th 2.2 8.0 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.3 8.3 3.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 3.2 10.9 0.4 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 10.0 4.6 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 5.8 9.1 0.5 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 5.9 1.8 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.3 3.4 12.9 24.3 26.6 19.9 9.7 2.6 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 20.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 2.6% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.3 2.3
10-8 9.7% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 1.2 8.5
9-9 19.9% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.3 18.6
8-10 26.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 26.3
7-11 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.3
6-12 12.9% 12.9
5-13 3.4% 3.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 96.8 0.0%