Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.8#352
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#335
Pace68.9#159
Improvement+1.0#64

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#354
First Shot-10.3#361
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#50
Layup/Dunks-5.0#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#343
Freethrows-1.8#308
Improvement+0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#306
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#328
Layups/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#300
Freethrows-1.1#268
Improvement+0.9#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.1% 56.5% 24.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 50 - 11
Quad 49 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 71   @ UAB L 70-111 3%     0 - 1 -30.5 -9.7 -14.1
  Nov 10, 2022 43   @ USC L 58-96 2%     0 - 2 -24.7 -13.2 -8.1
  Nov 13, 2022 191   @ Pepperdine L 62-91 10%     0 - 3 -27.5 -13.9 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 57-70 5%     0 - 4 -7.5 -9.2 +0.4
  Nov 20, 2022 67   @ Pittsburgh L 54-73 2%     0 - 5 -8.2 -12.8 +4.2
  Nov 23, 2022 129   @ Duquesne L 57-75 6%     0 - 6 -13.0 -8.2 -6.9
  Nov 26, 2022 345   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 46%     1 - 6 -2.8 -5.7 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2022 142   @ Ohio L 58-72 7%     1 - 7 -9.9 -10.8 -0.2
  Dec 07, 2022 289   @ North Alabama L 63-71 21%     1 - 8 -12.2 -13.1 +0.8
  Dec 17, 2022 158   @ Georgia Tech L 60-96 8%     1 - 9 -32.7 -11.9 -19.5
  Dec 19, 2022 308   @ Arkansas St. L 65-72 24%     1 - 10 -12.4 -4.3 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2022 37   @ Memphis L 61-83 1%     1 - 11 -7.9 -9.7 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 70-61 75%     2 - 11 1 - 0 -10.9 -11.7 +0.7
  Jan 04, 2023 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-66 50%     3 - 11 2 - 0 +1.3 +3.6 -2.5
  Jan 07, 2023 326   @ Jackson St. L 58-61 28%     3 - 12 2 - 1 -9.7 -9.9 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2023 294   @ Alcorn St. L 76-92 22%     3 - 13 2 - 2 -20.5 -1.2 -18.7
  Jan 16, 2023 342   @ Alabama A&M W 69-61 35%     4 - 13 3 - 2 -0.9 -2.2 +1.7
  Jan 21, 2023 286   Prairie View W 56-55 OT 37%     5 - 13 4 - 2 -8.3 -15.7 +7.4
  Jan 23, 2023 312   Texas Southern L 65-71 43%     5 - 14 4 - 3 -16.9 -11.6 -5.2
  Jan 28, 2023 355   @ Bethune-Cookman L 62-64 46%     5 - 15 4 - 4 -13.9 -10.5 -3.6
  Jan 30, 2023 359   @ Florida A&M W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 232   Grambling St. L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 06, 2023 236   Southern L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 65-70 30%    
  Feb 13, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 359   Florida A&M W 65-59 73%    
  Feb 20, 2023 355   Bethune-Cookman W 72-68 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 342   Alabama A&M W 69-68 57%    
  Mar 02, 2023 236   @ Southern L 65-77 13%    
  Mar 04, 2023 232   @ Grambling St. L 61-73 13%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 6.3 1.1 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 9.7 3.1 0.1 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 10.3 6.4 0.3 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 8.7 8.8 1.3 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 5.1 8.3 2.0 0.1 16.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.5 3.1 10.3 20.4 24.7 21.5 12.8 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 26.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
11-7 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
10-8 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
9-9 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.5
8-10 24.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.6
7-11 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.4
6-12 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-13 3.1% 3.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%