Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#339
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#332
Pace76.5#39
Improvement-1.8#307

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#349
First Shot-7.0#335
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#282
Layup/Dunks-1.1#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#340
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement+0.3#131

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#292
First Shot+1.0#138
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#351
Layups/Dunks+1.6#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-1.8#292
Improvement-2.1#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.1% 12.6% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 62.9% 46.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 6.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.7% 2.6%
First Four1.7% 2.4% 1.7%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 20 - 8
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 410 - 1110 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 126   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 5%     0 - 1 +0.6 -4.8 +6.0
  Nov 10, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt L 72-91 3%     0 - 2 -9.1 -2.0 -5.3
  Nov 13, 2021 93   @ Missouri St. L 60-78 3%     0 - 3 -9.2 -14.6 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 60-68 3%     0 - 4 +2.8 -8.9 +12.2
  Nov 18, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 82-108 1%     0 - 5 -8.6 +8.0 -15.2
  Nov 20, 2021 337   NC Central W 80-74 OT 61%     1 - 5 -9.4 -12.3 +1.8
  Nov 28, 2021 308   North Alabama L 69-81 44%     1 - 6 -23.2 -11.7 -10.9
  Dec 01, 2021 113   @ Dayton L 58-77 4%    
  Dec 08, 2021 239   Samford L 75-81 30%    
  Dec 11, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine L 66-78 13%    
  Dec 15, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 57-90 0.0%   
  Dec 21, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 59-88 0.4%   
  Dec 28, 2021 17   @ Texas Tech L 54-84 0.3%   
  Jan 03, 2022 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 05, 2022 357   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 258   Jackson St. L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 10, 2022 315   Alcorn St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 342   Alabama A&M W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 242   @ Prairie View L 71-82 15%    
  Jan 24, 2022 199   @ Texas Southern L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 29, 2022 345   Bethune-Cookman W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 31, 2022 305   Florida A&M L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 324   @ Grambling St. L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 07, 2022 292   @ Southern L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 12, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 14, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 83-68 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 305   @ Florida A&M L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 21, 2022 345   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 342   @ Alabama A&M L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 03, 2022 292   Southern L 71-74 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 324   Grambling St. L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.5 1.8 0.2 8.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.3 0.3 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 5.8 4.2 0.6 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.4 5.4 1.1 13.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 5.7 5.6 1.1 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.9 1.5 0.1 14.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.6 6.6 11.4 13.1 14.1 14.5 12.4 8.7 6.0 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 56.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-4 39.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-5 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 52.2% 52.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 0.7% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 1.8% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.2 1.6
13-5 2.9% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.2 2.6
12-6 6.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 5.8
11-7 8.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.4
10-8 12.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 12.0
9-9 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.4
8-10 14.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.0
7-11 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 11.4% 11.4
5-13 6.6% 6.6
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%