Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#159
Pace70.5#114
Improvement-1.3#326

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#304
First Shot-5.4#329
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#81
Layup/Dunks+0.7#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#346
Freethrows-0.2#185
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#157
First Shot+0.7#146
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks+5.1#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows-2.8#341
Improvement-1.4#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 41.9% 32.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Conference Champion 35.8% 42.4% 17.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.3% 6.4% 9.8%
First Round35.5% 38.5% 27.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 30 - 12 - 5
Quad 416 - 418 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 60   Colorado W 83-74 18%     1 - 0 +15.0 +8.2 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2022 118   @ Grand Canyon L 48-81 19%     1 - 1 -27.5 -25.1 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2022 64   @ Arizona St. L 49-80 9%     1 - 2 -19.9 -15.2 -5.4
  Nov 25, 2022 311   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-55 57%     2 - 2 +14.5 -1.3 +16.0
  Nov 27, 2022 346   Incarnate Word L 61-63 78%     2 - 3 -13.8 -13.9 +0.0
  Nov 28, 2022 274   Dartmouth W 73-49 58%     3 - 3 +18.1 -0.2 +18.4
  Dec 03, 2022 346   Incarnate Word W 72-39 84%     4 - 3 +18.5 -5.3 +24.6
  Dec 09, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 64-62 13%     5 - 3 +10.6 +2.4 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2022 46   @ Virginia Tech L 48-74 7%     5 - 4 -13.0 -16.0 +1.4
  Dec 19, 2022 69   @ Liberty L 56-75 10%     5 - 5 -8.3 -9.0 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2023 286   @ Prairie View L 60-61 51%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -4.9 -10.2 +5.3
  Jan 04, 2023 312   @ Texas Southern W 85-72 57%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +7.5 +10.3 -3.1
  Jan 07, 2023 355   Bethune-Cookman W 76-70 89%     7 - 6 2 - 1 -11.2 -3.8 -7.2
  Jan 09, 2023 359   Florida A&M W 62-57 92%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -14.0 -8.6 -4.8
  Jan 14, 2023 236   @ Southern L 73-81 40%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -9.2 -5.5 -2.9
  Jan 21, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 65-61 84%     9 - 7 4 - 2 -10.5 -17.1 +6.4
  Jan 23, 2023 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-70 64%     10 - 7 5 - 2 -0.4 +4.2 -4.6
  Jan 28, 2023 326   Jackson St. W 78-66 79%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -0.1 +10.3 -8.8
  Jan 30, 2023 294   Alcorn St. W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 352   @ Alabama St. W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 06, 2023 342   @ Alabama A&M W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 312   Texas Southern W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 13, 2023 286   Prairie View W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 236   Southern W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 25, 2023 359   @ Florida A&M W 67-57 82%    
  Feb 27, 2023 355   @ Bethune-Cookman W 75-67 77%    
  Mar 02, 2023 342   Alabama A&M W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 04, 2023 352   Alabama St. W 73-61 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.5 11.3 14.4 6.3 35.8 1st
2nd 0.6 5.8 15.5 13.8 3.8 39.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 7.8 4.8 0.8 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 7.1 15.1 23.8 25.9 18.1 6.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.3    5.5 0.8
15-3 79.2% 14.4    9.1 5.0 0.2
14-4 43.8% 11.3    4.5 5.6 1.2 0.0
13-5 14.5% 3.5    0.7 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.8% 35.8 19.8 13.2 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.3% 60.5% 60.5% 14.4 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.1 2.5
15-3 18.1% 51.4% 51.4% 15.1 0.0 1.3 5.6 2.4 8.8
14-4 25.9% 43.3% 43.3% 15.5 0.0 0.5 5.2 5.6 14.7
13-5 23.8% 36.1% 36.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.4 6.1 15.2
12-6 15.1% 28.2% 28.2% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.6 10.8
11-7 7.1% 22.8% 22.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.5
10-8 2.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.4
9-9 0.8% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.1 0.6
8-10 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.4% 39.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.2 3.8 15.7 19.6 60.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 60.5% 14.4 2.6 29.8 26.7 1.3