Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #252
Pace 67.4 #220
Improvement -1.2 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #314 D+ D+ F B C
Defense #197 D+ D+ B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.11 #233 +0.4 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.63 #340 -0.9 #232
Three Pointers 37% #258 1.00 #198 -2.1 #257
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #257 -2.7 #257
Freethrows 0.36 #44 72% #205 0.26 #67
Second Chance 28.7% #239 0.94 #295 0.27 #271
Turnovers 21.5% #359
Total Offense -5.4 #314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.22 #272 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.71 #100 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 42% #153 1.05 #231 -1.1 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #271 -2.6 #271
Freethrows 0.35 #307 73% #248 0.26 #309
Second Chance 34.9% #325 1.03 #188 0.36 #291
Turnovers 19.7% #47
Total Defense -0.8 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #197 1.8% #323
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #266 3.3% #243
Possession Length 17.4 #195 17.1 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #92 0.22 #325
Improvement -3.0 #331 +1.8 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 65.5% 72.5% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 94.6% 78.9%
Conference Champion 16.2% 19.4% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.8% 11.2% 9.3%
First Round11.8% 12.9% 8.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 415 - 916 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  0 - 1 -15 -2 C D D -10 D+ D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 250 @Howard W 73 - 70 34% +1  1 - 1 +1 +9 B A+ F -7 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 251 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 57% +6  2 - 1 -3 +1 A D F -4 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 198 @San Diego L 68 - 78 26% -7  2 - 2 -10 -9 F D+ C- -0 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 133 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 15% -13  2 - 3 -8 -5 C F F -4 F B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 291 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 43% +1  2 - 4 -13 +1 F C B+ -14 F D+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 171 @Tulane L 63 - 65 21% -0  2 - 5 +0 -1 D+ B F +1 B+ D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 251 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 35% +1  2 - 6 -10 -11 D+ F F +0 D- C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 307 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 60% +14  3 - 6 +3 +0 C+ F A +3 B+ D C-
 Fri, Dec 19 252 Hampton W 81 - 72 46% +7  4 - 6 +4 +12 B A+ F -8 F A+ B
 Tue, Dec 23 36 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 3% -13  4 - 7 -9 -1 D- B F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 339 Prairie View W 76 - 72 79% +4  5 - 7 1 - 0 -11 -8 C- D+ F -3 C+ F+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 310 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 71% +9  6 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +5 B B D+ +0 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 222 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 29% -8  6 - 8 2 - 1 -9 -11 D+ F F +2 B- F A-
 Mon, Jan 12 325 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 54% -3  6 - 9 2 - 2 -14 +7 C B+ B -21 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 265 Southern L 53 - 71 60% -11  6 - 10 2 - 3 -27 -23 F C F -4 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 338 @Jackson St. W 69 - 66 59% +3  7 - 10 3 - 3 -5 -4 D+ F C- -1 C C- D+
 Mon, Feb 2 352 @Alcorn St. W 74 - 50 64% +13  8 - 10 4 - 3 +14 +5 D+ B+ D +12 A+ C F
 Wed, Feb 4 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Alabama St. W 75 - 69 72%
 Mon, Feb 9 306 Alabama A&M W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 310 @Texas Southern L 73 - 74 49%
 Mon, Feb 16 339 @Prairie View W 75 - 73 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 @Southern L 71 - 74 39%
 Mon, Feb 23 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 57 97%
 Thu, Feb 26 222 Bethune-Cookman W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 Florida A&M W 72 - 65 75%
 Tue, Mar 3 306 @Alabama A&M L 68 - 69 48%
 Thu, Mar 5 316 @Alabama St. W 73 - 72 51%
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 -6 -5 D+ D+ F -1 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.1 6.7 4.1 0.8 16.1 1st
2nd 1.2 10.0 13.2 5.1 0.7 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.0 9.6 1.9 0.1 17.6 3rd
4th 1.3 8.3 1.9 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 4.6 3.5 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.5 4.7 0.4 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 1.9 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.6 0.2 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.2 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.2 12.8 19.4 21.9 19.3 11.9 4.8 0.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 85.5% 4.1    2.7 1.4 0.0
13-5 56.4% 6.7    3.0 3.2 0.6
12-6 21.4% 4.1    0.6 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 7.0 6.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.8% 35.4% 35.4% 14.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 4.8% 30.4% 30.4% 15.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 3.3
13-5 11.9% 24.7% 24.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.4 8.9
12-6 19.3% 22.5% 22.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.0 14.9
11-7 21.9% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6 18.3
10-8 19.4% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.0 2.8 16.5
9-9 12.8% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4 11.4
8-10 6.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 5.9
7-11 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 15.9 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.4 62.1 34.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%