Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#331
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#299
Pace73.6#50
Improvement+0.0#184

Offense
Total Offense-8.7#357
First Shot-6.5#341
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#325
Layup/Dunks-3.0#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#259
Freethrows+0.6#129
Improvement-0.2#231

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#222
First Shot-4.2#309
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#6
Layups/Dunks-1.1#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#240
Freethrows-4.2#359
Improvement+0.2#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.0% 6.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 97.0% 84.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 3.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 410 - 810 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 15   @ TCU L 72-73 1%     0 - 1 +16.4 +4.1 +12.4
  Nov 11, 2022 43   @ Oklahoma L 58-66 3%     0 - 2 +5.3 -6.9 +11.9
  Nov 13, 2022 55   @ Mississippi St. L 47-80 3%     0 - 3 -20.7 -14.2 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2022 73   @ Kent St. L 68-94 4%     0 - 4 -16.1 -9.0 -2.6
  Nov 18, 2022 180   @ Cleveland St. L 58-67 12%     0 - 5 -6.6 -12.4 +5.6
  Nov 20, 2022 94   @ Nebraska L 58-82 6%     0 - 6 -16.1 -3.4 -14.8
  Nov 30, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 53-81 12%     0 - 7 -25.2 -16.6 -9.4
  Dec 10, 2022 10   @ Texas L 43-88 1%     0 - 8 -26.5 -19.8 -8.6
  Dec 14, 2022 173   @ Minnesota L 56-72 12%     0 - 9 -13.3 -10.5 -3.6
  Jan 02, 2023 347   @ Alabama A&M L 59-66 47%     0 - 10 0 - 1 -16.4 -19.9 +4.0
  Jan 04, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. L 66-80 52%     0 - 11 0 - 2 -24.6 -10.9 -13.6
  Jan 07, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 70-66 53%     1 - 11 1 - 2 -6.9 -15.7 +8.2
  Jan 09, 2023 287   Prairie View W 63-55 47%     2 - 11 2 - 2 -1.4 -11.5 +9.9
  Jan 14, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 67-54 61%     3 - 11 3 - 2 +0.1 -3.5 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman W 77-71 55%     4 - 11 4 - 2 -5.3 -0.2 -4.9
  Jan 21, 2023 233   Southern W 62-55 36%     5 - 11 5 - 2 +0.6 -9.9 +10.7
  Jan 23, 2023 240   Grambling St. L 70-77 38%     5 - 12 5 - 3 -13.8 -4.0 -9.8
  Jan 28, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-72 82%     6 - 12 6 - 3 -3.9 -5.9 -0.5
  Feb 04, 2023 289   @ Alcorn St. L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 06, 2023 327   @ Jackson St. L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 13, 2023 347   Alabama A&M W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 287   @ Prairie View L 62-68 27%    
  Feb 20, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 69-65 65%    
  Mar 02, 2023 327   Jackson St. W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 289   Alcorn St. L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.4 7.3 2.1 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 8.4 13.3 4.4 0.3 27.3 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 12.0 3.4 0.1 22.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 8.1 2.6 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.8 2.2 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.7 8.9 17.8 23.8 22.7 15.1 6.7 1.7 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 62.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.2% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.7% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.6
13-5 6.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.5
12-6 15.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 14.7
11-7 22.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 22.4
10-8 23.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.6
9-9 17.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.7
8-10 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
7-11 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 8.1% 15.6 3.2 4.8
Lose Out 0.3%