Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-19.7#357
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#311
Pace71.4#120
Improvement-1.2#269

Offense
Total Offense-11.4#356
First Shot-7.3#342
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#352
Layup/Dunks-7.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#104
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-1.1#291

Defense
Total Defense-8.3#352
First Shot-5.5#330
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#319
Layups/Dunks-5.5#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.8% 1.5% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.3% 46.3% 28.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 44 - 144 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 66   @ Creighton L 77-90 1%     0 - 1 -2.6 +2.0 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 71-91 1%     0 - 2 -6.6 -2.8 -2.7
  Nov 14, 2021 84   @ Wyoming L 45-85 1%     0 - 3 -30.4 -23.4 -7.3
  Nov 18, 2021 251   @ Portland L 74-86 6%     0 - 4 -13.9 -2.8 -10.4
  Nov 22, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 56-77 3%     0 - 5 -18.5 -17.5 -0.5
  Nov 24, 2021 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-86 2%     0 - 6 -21.9 -12.1 -10.0
  Nov 26, 2021 187   @ Pacific L 50-74 3%     0 - 7 -22.2 -15.7 -9.0
  Dec 01, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 54-85 0.1%   
  Dec 04, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 51-92 0.0%   
  Dec 08, 2021 229   Arkansas St. L 63-76 10%    
  Dec 14, 2021 11   @ Texas L 45-84 0.0%   
  Jan 03, 2022 342   Alabama A&M L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 05, 2022 339   Alabama St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 199   @ Texas Southern L 60-81 3%    
  Jan 10, 2022 242   @ Prairie View L 66-84 5%    
  Jan 15, 2022 305   Florida A&M L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 17, 2022 345   Bethune-Cookman L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 22, 2022 292   @ Southern L 63-79 8%    
  Jan 24, 2022 324   @ Grambling St. L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 29, 2022 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 315   Alcorn St. L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 07, 2022 258   Jackson St. L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 12, 2022 339   @ Alabama St. L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 14, 2022 342   @ Alabama A&M L 63-73 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 242   Prairie View L 69-81 14%    
  Feb 21, 2022 199   Texas Southern L 63-78 9%    
  Feb 26, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 03, 2022 258   @ Jackson St. L 57-74 7%    
  Mar 05, 2022 315   @ Alcorn St. L 61-75 12%    
Projected Record 4 - 25 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 2.5 0.4 10.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 6.5 8.1 4.2 0.8 21.9 10th
11th 1.5 7.9 13.0 11.7 4.8 0.7 39.5 11th
12th 1.6 6.1 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 17.1 12th
Total 1.6 7.6 14.0 17.8 19.4 15.6 10.4 6.7 4.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.7% 0.7
9-9 1.7% 1.7
8-10 4.0% 4.0
7-11 6.7% 6.7
6-12 10.4% 10.4
5-13 15.6% 15.6
4-14 19.4% 19.4
3-15 17.8% 17.8
2-16 14.0% 14.0
1-17 7.6% 7.6
0-18 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%