IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Bethune-Cookman
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-4.8	#248
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.9	#241

Pace	71.4	#112
Improvement	+0.3	#172

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#250	C-	D+	C	C-	C
Defense	#239	C	D	D+	C-	D

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#72	1.16	#171	+2.4	#103
2 Pt. Jumpers	25%	#92	0.71	#260	+1.0	#125
Three Pointers	33%	#332	0.98	#227	-4.8	#324
1st FG Attempt			0.99	#223	-1.4	#223
Freethrows	0.30	#196	70%	#255	0.21	#213
Second Chance	26.9%	#281	0.98	#264	0.26	#291
Turnovers					16.8%	#205
Total Offense					-2.8	#250

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	44%	#48	1.09	#96	-1.6	#234
2 Pt. Jumpers	17%	#290	0.79	#232	+1.1	#105
Three Pointers	39%	#233	1.03	#206	+0.6	#151
1st FG Attempt			1.02	#176	+0.1	#176
Freethrows	0.31	#223	73%	#218	0.23	#236
Second Chance	32.5%	#269	1.17	#320	0.38	#319
Turnovers					14.5%	#297
Total Defense					-2.0	#239

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.5%	#221	1.7%	#324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-2.4%	#213	-1.9%	#147
Possession Length	17.5	#185	16.9	#103
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.24	#37	0.17	#194
Improvement	-2.0	#292	+2.3	#57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	25.0%	27.4%	21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	55.3%	67.2%	40.5%
.500 or above in Conference	97.8%	99.5%	95.7%
Conference Champion	49.7%	60.5%	36.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	13.8%	13.2%	14.6%
First Round	18.9%	21.6%	15.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

16 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 5	0 - 5
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 8
Quad 3	1 - 1	1 - 9
Quad 4	15 - 7	16 - 16

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	25 @Auburn	L	90 - 95 OT	3%	-1	0 - 1		+14	+12	A+	D-	B-	+2	A	C-	C
Thu, Nov 6	40 @Miami (FL)	L	61 - 101	4%	-20	0 - 2		-24	-6	F	B-	B+	-17	F	A-	F
Sat, Nov 15	85 @Dayton	L	82 - 91	9%	-6	0 - 3		+1	+18	C	A+	A+	-17	F	F	B
Wed, Nov 19	214 @Ohio	W	76 - 73	33%	+4	1 - 3		+3	+6	A+	F	A	-3	C	B-	F
Mon, Nov 24	285 Jacksonville	L	64 - 69	59%	+2	1 - 4		-12	-6	F	D-	B-	-7	D	C	D-
Tue, Nov 25	238 Stony Brook	L	54 - 61	48%	+2	1 - 5		-11	-15	F	F+	D	+3	B+	C-	A
Sat, Nov 29	31 @Indiana	L	56 - 100	3%	-26	1 - 6		-26	-11	F	D+	B-	-15	F+	B-	F+
Fri, Dec 5	359 South Carolina St.	W	80 - 59	89%	+12	2 - 6		+3	+4	A-	F	A	+0	A+	C	C
Sun, Dec 14	56 @Missouri	L	60 - 82	6%	-15	2 - 7		-9	-5	D-	B+	F	-5	C	F	A
Wed, Dec 17	26 @Saint Louis	L	53 - 112	3%	-31	2 - 8		-41	-15	F	C-	D	-20	F	F	C+
Mon, Dec 22	2 @Arizona	L	71 - 107	1%	-15	2 - 9		-9	+4	A+	D	F	-8	F	C-	A
Mon, Dec 29	63 @Oklahoma St.	L	77 - 103	7%	-13	2 - 10		-14	-1	B+	F+	F	-10	B+	F	F+
Sat, Jan 3	315 Florida A&M	W	87 - 83	76%	+4	3 - 10	1 - 0	-8	+8	B	D	B+	-16	D-	F	F+
Sat, Jan 10	288 Grambling St.	W	74 - 65	70%	+8	4 - 10	2 - 0	-1	-7	F+	C	D	+5	C+	A+	B
Mon, Jan 12	260 Southern	L	73 - 77	64%	+4	4 - 11	2 - 1	-12	-5	C	F	F+	-8	B+	F	D-
Sat, Jan 17	365 @Mississippi Valley	W	79 - 63	92%	+12	5 - 11	3 - 1	-5	+4	A	A	F	-8	C+	F	F
Mon, Jan 19	327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	87 - 82 OT	59%	-2	6 - 11	4 - 1	-2	+1	F+	A-	F	-4	D	C-	B+
Sat, Jan 24	337 Jackson St.	W	85 - 48	81%	+16	7 - 11	5 - 1	+23	+1	D-	A-	C+	+20	A+	C	C-
Mon, Jan 26	350 Alcorn St.	W	82 - 73	84%	+11	8 - 11	6 - 1	-6	+2	B-	F	C	-8	B	F	F
Sat, Jan 31	318 @Alabama St.	W	78 - 76	56%
Mon, Feb 2	297 @Alabama A&M	L	72 - 73	49%
Sat, Feb 7	345 Prairie View	W	84 - 74	83%
Mon, Feb 9	306 Texas Southern	W	81 - 74	73%
Sat, Feb 14	350 @Alcorn St.	W	78 - 73	67%
Mon, Feb 16	337 @Jackson St.	W	79 - 76	62%
Thu, Feb 19	318 Alabama St.	W	81 - 73	75%
Sat, Feb 21	297 Alabama A&M	W	75 - 69	70%
Thu, Feb 26	288 @Grambling St.	L	72 - 73	49%
Sat, Feb 28	260 @Southern	L	75 - 77	41%
Thu, Mar 5	315 @Florida A&M	W	73 - 72	56%
Totals						15 - 15	12 - 5	-5	-3	C-	D+	C	-2	C	D	D+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st											0.0	1.5	11.0	17.4	13.0	5.7	1.2			49.7	1st
2nd											0.3	6.8	9.9	3.2	0.3	0.0				20.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	2.2	7.4	2.1	0.1						11.8	3rd
4th										0.2	4.6	2.2	0.1							7.1	4th
5th									0.0	1.2	2.9	0.3								4.4	5th
6th									0.1	2.1	0.7	0.0								2.9	6th
7th								0.0	0.4	1.3	0.0									1.8	7th
8th								0.0	0.9	0.2										1.1	8th
9th								0.1	0.4											0.5	9th
10th							0.0	0.1	0.1											0.2	10th
11th							0.0	0.1												0.1	11th
12th																					12th

Total							0.0	0.4	1.8	4.9	10.8	18.3	23.0	20.7	13.3	5.7	1.2				Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	1.2	1.2
15-3	99.9%	5.7	5.6	0.1
14-4	97.8%	13.0	11.6	1.4	0.0
13-5	83.9%	17.4	10.7	5.8	0.8	0.0
12-6	47.9%	11.0	2.5	5.1	2.9	0.6	0.0
11-7	8.3%	1.5	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	49.7%	49.7	31.6	12.6	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	1.2%	42.7%	42.7%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.7
15-3	5.7%	42.5%	42.5%		15.4														0.2	1.2	1.1	3.3
14-4	13.3%	32.2%	32.2%		15.8														0.0	1.0	3.3	9.0
13-5	20.7%	27.7%	27.7%		15.9															0.6	5.1	15.0
12-6	23.0%	24.6%	24.6%		15.9															0.3	5.4	17.4
11-7	18.3%	20.5%	20.5%		16.0															0.0	3.7	14.5
10-8	10.8%	18.3%	18.3%		16.0																2.0	8.8
9-9	4.9%	11.7%	11.7%		16.0																0.6	4.3
8-10	1.8%	3.9%	3.9%		16.0																0.1	1.7
7-11	0.4%	1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.4
6-12	0.0%																					0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	15.8																	75.1	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	13	14	15
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	14.3	9.8	53.3	37.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%