Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.5 300
Results Rating -7.7 292
Consistency 0.18 329
Pace 64.5 285
Improvement -1.2 234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 258 D D C B D+
Defense D 318 D C- D+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 D 53% 307 -2.5 277
2 Pt. Jumpers 54% 35 D+ 35% 276 +1.6 94
Three Pointers 35% 293 C 34% 184 -2.8 272
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.9 297 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 298
Second Chance D 24.8% 324 C- 1.01 215 D 0.25 313
Opponents' Steals B- 8.6% 103
Other Turnovers D+ 7.8% 261
Turnovers C 16.4% 162
Freethrows B 0.34 65 C+ 74% 145 B 0.25 60
Total Offense D+ -3.1 258

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 274 C 10.9% 179
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 241 B- 3.5% 76
Three Pointers D- 77% 327 B+ 0.2% 20
Total D 47% 326 C+ 5.1% 132


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 123 D+ 61% 274 +2.8 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 268 B- 36% 106 -1.4 74
Three Pointers 41% 161 D- 38% 331 +2.4 302
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 267 D +3.2 308
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 311
Second Chance C- 32.0% 258 C- 1.05 228 C- 0.34 258
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 262
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 193
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 251
Freethrows D+ 0.33 276 C 72% 191 D+ 0.24 268
Total Defense D -5.4 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 335 D+ 8.9% 255
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 39% 344 D+ 3.6% 262
Three Pointers D+ 86% 256 D 0.2% 328
Total D- 64% 344 D+ 4.4% 277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 289 16.8 85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 181 0.23 346
Consistency 0.12 174 0.16 355
Improvement +3.5 38 -4.7 344

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 309 301 294
Results Rating Rank 308 294 252
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 47% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four25% 47% 0%
First Round10% 19% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 416 - 1016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 44 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -31 F -19 F F C+ F -12 F C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 13 245 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 48% +5  77% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -10 F A F B+ +7 B- D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 271 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 53% +2  61% 2 - 1 C -0 C- -1 C+ C+ D+ C+ +1 C- C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 39 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  0% 2 - 2 F -19 F+ -10 C- F B+ F+ -9 D F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 240 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 26% -6  0% 2 - 3 D -9 F -12 F+ F D B +4 A- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 182 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 34% +9  97% 3 - 3 A +23 B+ +8 A- B F A+ +17 A+ C- A
 Sun, Dec 7 217 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 21% -13  0% 3 - 4 F -34 F -13 F D C- F -24 F F F
 Mon, Dec 15 343 North Alabama W 68 - 60 76% +0  53% 4 - 4 D+ -8 F -10 F C A- B- +3 F+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 69 Mississippi L 66 - 80 6% -13  0% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C+ +2 B C- B- F+ -8 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 295 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 59% -4  20% 4 - 6 F+ -18 F+ -10 F D C+ F+ -8 D- C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 322 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 45% -4  33% 4 - 7 0 - 1 F -19 A- +11 F+ A+ C F -31 F F D
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 85% +10  80% 5 - 7 1 - 1 C +0 F -12 F D F A+ +12 B+ C+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 352 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 80% +4  80% 5 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -15 F F+ C- D+ -4 D+ B F
 Mon, Jan 12 346 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 77% +6  73% 6 - 8 2 - 2 D+ -7 C +2 C+ C+ C F -10 F+ B F
 Mon, Jan 19 324 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 57% +0  52% 7 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 F D C+ C+ +0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 316 @Texas Southern L 74 - 89 43% +1  40% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -22 C- -1 B F+ D F -21 F D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 314 @Prairie View W 80 - 60 42% +12  84% 8 - 9 4 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 B+ F C A +9 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 311 Florida A&M W 72 - 65 64% +8  99% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +2 D+ D- B D -6 D C+ C
 Mon, Feb 2 248 Bethune-Cookman L 62 - 80 48% -14  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -26 F -18 F F D+ D- -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 276 @Southern L 68 - 81 31% -8  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -17 D -5 F C- A+ F -13 F F+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 307 @Grambling St. W 66 - 58 40% +10  97% 10 - 11 6 - 5 C+ +2 D+ -4 D- D- D+ B+ +7 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 72 - 65 93% +1  44% 11 - 11 7 - 5 F -19 D- -7 D- D C+ F -11 D C- F+
 Mon, Feb 16 322 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 70 68% +4  79% 12 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 B+ +8 A- D+ C D- -8 C C- F
 Thu, Feb 19 311 @Florida A&M W 63 - 61 41% +1  59% 13 - 11 9 - 5 C- -4 D -6 C- D+ D C+ +1 D A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 76 - 85 27% -9  3% 13 - 12 9 - 6 D -11 B- +4 D+ D+ B F -15 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 324 Alabama St. L 88 - 89 68% -2  25% 13 - 13 9 - 7 D- -14 A +12 A+ B- A F -26 F F F
 Tue, Mar 3 307 Grambling St. W 77 - 63 63% +9  76% 14 - 13 10 - 7 C+ +2 B+ +8 B+ D A+ D+ -5 A- F C
 Thu, Mar 5 276 Southern L 85 - 88 54% -8  0% 14 - 14 10 - 8 D- -13 C +1 C- F A+ F -14 D- F D+
 Thu, Mar 12 316 Texas Southern W 85 - 74 OT 54% -1  22% 15 - 14 C +1 C- -1 B F D+ B- +2 A F C+
 Fri, Mar 13 314 Prairie View W 76 - 75 54%
Totals 16 - 14 10 - 8 -9 D+ -3 D+ D+ D+ D -5 C C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D D+ C D+ 38% 54% 35% D+ D D C- D C B C+ B D D+ B- D- D 41% 18% 41% D+ D C- C- C- D+ D+ C D+
1.04 53% 35% 34% -3 -1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .34 74% .25 1.16 61% 36% 38% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.1 .34 16% .33 72% .25
Nov
5		 Indiana F F F C F 34% 36% 30% D F F A+ F C+ B- F F+ F F D F F 57% 4% 40% F F C+ C- C+ B- A- F C-
0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17 1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27
Nov
13		 Charleston Southern F F B B- F 41% 34% 25% D F A- B+ A F F A+ F+ B+ F+ A+ A B 41% 11% 48% C- B- F B+ D+ A+ F A D-
0.98 26% 42% 36% -11 -2 0.77 38% 1.2 .45 20% .22 92% .20 0.92 67% 20% 29% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 26% .37 58% .21
Nov
16		 Lindenwood C- B- F A B- 36% 20% 44% D+ C+ D A C+ D+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F D A+ C- 43% 17% 40% D+ C- C+ C C+ B- F B+ D
1.09 63% 22% 40% +2 0 1.07 28% 1.3 .34 19% .46 76% .35 0.96 70% 38% 16% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.1 .32 21% .39 62% .24
Nov
28		 Clemson F+ A- A+ F C 22% 37% 41% F C- F F F B+ C+ D C F+ F+ D- D+ D 47% 8% 45% F+ D D- F F B- F D+ F
0.79 64% 47% 19% -5 -3 0.86 8% 0.7 .05 16% .29 71% .20 1.30 70% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.2 .40 16% .54 75% .40
Nov
30		 Coastal Carolina F F D D- F+ 32% 34% 34% D+ F+ F+ F F D A F B- B A+ C+ C A- 30% 36% 34% B+ A- C+ C+ C+ C F F F
0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24 0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48
Dec
3		 Tennessee St. B+ C+ A A+ A 42% 19% 40% D+ A- A D- B F A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% B- A+ F A+ C- A F A+ C-
1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40 0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22
Dec
7		 Lipscomb F F F D F 40% 32% 28% D F C+ F D C- A+ C+ A+ F F F D- F 53% 5% 42% F F B- F F F C+ A+ B
0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28 1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13
Dec
15		 North Alabama F F B- F F 36% 23% 40% F+ F D+ B C A- A+ F A+ B- D A+ F F 32% 28% 40% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ C C- A+ B-
1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36 0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 Mississippi C+ F F A+ B+ 31% 31% 38% D B D- A+ C- B- A- D- B- F+ F+ D- F F 36% 26% 38% F+ F B+ A+ A C- F A+ F
1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24 1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32
Dec
21		 Chattanooga F+ D F+ F F 43% 20% 37% C F F A D C+ A- C+ A- F+ C+ B- F F+ 33% 17% 50% D+ D- B+ F C- D- D+ A C
1.04 52% 30% 28% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30 1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20
Jan
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A- C D- F F+ 44% 20% 36% C F+ A+ C A+ C A+ A- A+ F D C- F F 40% 27% 33% C F F F F D F F+ F
1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43 1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39
Jan
5		 Mississippi Valley F F F D+ F 43% 14% 43% B- F C F D F A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- A A- 30% 36% 34% D+ B+ B+ D- C+ A F+ B D
1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47 0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Alcorn St. F F+ A+ F F 35% 17% 48% D F D- D F+ C- C- F F D+ B+ F C C- 46% 18% 36% F D+ C- A+ B F B- F C
0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17 0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18
Jan
12		 Jackson St. C A+ C- D C+ 37% 18% 45% D+ C+ F A+ C+ C A+ B A+ F F+ F A- F+ 32% 13% 55% F F+ A+ F B F F D+ F
1.23 78% 33% 32% +5 0 1.12 25% 1.6 .41 16% .63 79% .50 1.12 63% 63% 27% -1 0 1.02 15% 1.5 .22 12% .43 77% .34
Jan
19		 Alabama St. D- A+ F F F 33% 27% 40% F+ F F A+ D C+ A+ A A+ C+ F D+ A- F 26% 28% 47% A- F+ F F F A+ D- B D+
1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40 0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Texas Southern C- D- A+ A+ B+ 42% 24% 33% D B F B- F+ D C F+ D+ F F A+ F F 37% 24% 39% C- F C D D+ F F D- F
1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23 1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30
Jan
27		 Prairie View B- A+ B+ B A 37% 33% 30% F B+ F F F C F A+ F+ A D+ A A+ B 43% 34% 23% D+ B- F A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+
1.17 75% 44% 38% +10 -2 1.19 26% 0.9 .22 18% .23 92% .21 0.88 58% 26% 23% -8 -1 0.84 34% 0.3 .11 16% .21 75% .16
Jan
31		 Florida A&M C+ F+ F A+ D+ 32% 23% 45% D- D+ C F D- B A+ A+ A+ D A+ A F D 41% 27% 32% C D F A+ C+ C F F F
1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40 1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36
Feb
2		 Bethune-Cookman F F F F F 59% 10% 31% A- F F+ F F D+ A+ B A+ D- F A+ F F 49% 18% 33% D- F A+ A+ A+ D F A+ D
0.85 38% 0% 20% -22 +3 0.63 25% 0.9 .23 16% .46 75% .35 1.10 72% 22% 41% +8 +1 1.20 19% 0.7 .14 16% .46 54% .25
Feb
7		 Southern D F F A+ F 35% 37% 28% F F D- A+ C- A+ A+ F A- F F+ D F+ F 45% 20% 35% F F F B+ F+ D D- F F
1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33 1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Grambling St. D+ F C B D- 45% 18% 36% C D- F C D- D+ A+ C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% F A+ C+ D- C- D- F F F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32 0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44
Feb
14		 Mississippi Valley D- F A+ D- D- 41% 23% 36% C- D- F A D C+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ A F D+ 41% 39% 20% D- D D+ C C- F+ F C F
1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39 1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28
Feb
16		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B+ C+ D- A+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ A- D C+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ D- B- A+ F C+ 44% 18% 38% F C F A C- F B- C C+
1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52 1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21
Feb
19		 Florida A&M D C+ D A C 45% 27% 27% D+ C- F A+ D+ D D- A+ C- C+ B- A F D- 31% 16% 53% D+ D C+ A+ A- D+ A+ D A+
1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24 0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10
Feb
21		 Bethune-Cookman B- B- D+ F C- 46% 31% 22% F D+ B F D+ B A+ B+ A+ F D F F F 45% 20% 35% D+ F D- F F C- D A C
1.12 60% 35% 25% -3 -1 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 13% .43 76% .32 1.26 64% 50% 53% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .48 18% .36 60% .22
Feb
28		 Alabama St. A C A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% D A+ D+ A+ B- A A- F C F D- F+ F F 41% 18% 41% D- F C+ F F F D- F F
1.31 61% 64% 48% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.4 .41 13% .43 64% .27 1.32 62% 44% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 12% .34 80% .27
Mar
3		 Grambling St. B+ C+ D- A+ A 39% 28% 33% F+ B+ D C D A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ F A A 38% 20% 42% C- A- D F F C B- F+ C+
1.21 61% 31% 53% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 14% .46 80% .37 0.99 35% 44% 26% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.5 .49 20% .28 79% .22
Mar
5		 Southern C A- F B C- 47% 29% 24% C- C- D- F F A+ A C A F C D+ F D 57% 28% 15% F+ D- D+ F F D+ F F F
1.17 69% 25% 38% +3 0 1.07 26% 0.7 .18 11% .45 76% .34 1.21 56% 38% 43% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.9 .59 15% .60 76% .45
Mar
12		 Texas Southern C- C A+ B+ B+ 31% 15% 54% D+ B D- F F D+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ C A A 31% 40% 29% A+ A F+ F F C+ F C- F
1.12 60% 57% 38% +7 0 1.17 26% 0.8 .21 17% .52 73% .38 0.97 38% 38% 27% -10 -3 0.77 33% 1.4 .45 18% .47 72% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 25.1 74.9
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 16.0 74.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 28.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 46.6%