Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.1#347
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#346
Pace74.4#39
Improvement-0.5#259

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#354
First Shot-7.0#345
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#280
Layup/Dunks-3.4#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#330
Freethrows-2.7#347
Improvement-1.0#314

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#289
First Shot-1.5#232
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#343
Layups/Dunks+2.0#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#333
Freethrows-1.5#288
Improvement+0.4#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 28.0% 49.9% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 48 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 291   North Alabama L 76-84 40%     0 - 1 -17.6 -6.2 -11.2
  Nov 14, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. L 76-87 29%     0 - 2 -17.4 -10.5 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2022 145   Samford L 64-84 16%     0 - 3 -21.4 -20.0 +0.9
  Nov 19, 2022 203   Norfolk St. L 83-89 16%     0 - 4 -7.7 +0.3 -7.5
  Nov 23, 2022 137   Louisiana Tech L 75-80 15%     0 - 5 -6.0 -4.3 -1.3
  Dec 09, 2022 194   Lipscomb W 63-59 22%     1 - 5 +0.0 -13.3 +13.2
  Dec 12, 2022 182   South Alabama L 71-78 20%     1 - 6 -10.2 -0.3 -10.1
  Dec 17, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 47-68 1%     1 - 7 -4.1 -16.0 +11.8
  Dec 22, 2022 97   @ Vanderbilt L 62-70 4%     1 - 8 -0.4 -3.2 +2.1
  Dec 29, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 59-90 1%     1 - 9 -15.6 -11.4 -3.2
  Jan 02, 2023 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 66-59 53%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -5.8 -13.8 +7.5
  Jan 04, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 75-68 77%     3 - 9 2 - 0 -12.9 -1.3 -11.3
  Jan 07, 2023 289   @ Alcorn St. L 76-89 22%     3 - 10 2 - 1 -17.1 -2.9 -13.4
  Jan 09, 2023 327   @ Jackson St. L 64-72 30%     3 - 11 2 - 2 -14.7 -12.1 -2.5
  Jan 16, 2023 353   Alabama St. L 61-69 65%     3 - 12 2 - 3 -24.1 -14.7 -9.8
  Jan 21, 2023 314   Texas Southern L 59-70 45%     3 - 13 2 - 4 -21.9 -22.5 +1.7
  Jan 23, 2023 287   Prairie View W 67-59 40%     4 - 13 3 - 4 -1.4 -6.5 +5.0
  Jan 28, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 61-56 53%     5 - 13 4 - 4 -7.9 -6.7 -0.6
  Jan 30, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman L 77-88 47%     5 - 14 4 - 5 -22.3 -10.5 -10.7
  Feb 04, 2023 233   Southern L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 06, 2023 240   Grambling St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 13, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 20, 2023 358   Florida A&M W 67-61 73%    
  Feb 25, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. L 69-70 43%    
  Mar 02, 2023 240   @ Grambling St. L 64-75 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 233   @ Southern L 67-78 14%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.3 4.6 8.5 1.6 0.0 14.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 12.0 4.1 0.1 20.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 10.5 7.1 0.4 19.6 8th
9th 0.5 7.1 8.4 1.2 0.0 17.2 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 6.4 1.5 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 0.9 5.7 15.5 24.6 25.3 17.2 7.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
10-8 7.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
9-9 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.2
8-10 25.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.2
7-11 24.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.6
6-12 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 5.7% 5.7
4-14 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 9.1% 16.0 9.1
Lose Out 0.9% 0.2% 16.0 0.2