Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.5 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 #333
Pace 71.0 #123
Improvement +0.0 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 D+ D- F+ F+ D+
Defense #326 F+ F C+ D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.09 #270 -1.3 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #50 0.61 #346 +0.7 #146
Three Pointers 34% #319 1.07 #101 -2.7 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #282 -3.4 #282
Freethrows 0.23 #347 66% #342 0.15 #358
Second Chance 27.0% #276 0.83 #362 0.23 #345
Turnovers 19.9% #346
Total Offense -7.2 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.36 #360 -8.9 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #359 0.78 #217 +3.0 #5
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.07 #261 -1.2 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #358 -7.0 #354
Freethrows 0.33 #269 74% #268 0.24 #282
Second Chance 36.7% #352 1.19 #337 0.44 #357
Turnovers 17.3% #120
Total Defense -5.3 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #298 3.0% #361
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #259 11.0% #345
Possession Length 17.6 #194 15.9 #16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #163 0.29 #365
Improvement -1.1 #237 +1.1 #118

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.7% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 41.4% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.7% 2.7% 1.1%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 48 - 129 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 105 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 4% -17  0 - 1 -25 +1 A+ C F -23 F F+ D-
 Thu, Nov 6 192 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 11% +3  0 - 2 -5 -3 A- F F -2 F+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 72 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 3% -30  0 - 3 -34 -17 F C F -18 C+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 106 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0 - 4 -13 -6 C D F -6 F+ D A+
 Thu, Nov 13 276 @Howard L 64 - 72 20% -5  0 - 5 -11 -4 C F B- -8 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 47 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  0 - 6 -12 +10 B A+ D -21 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 54 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 2% -5  0 - 7 -6 -15 C+ F F +8 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 196 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 17% +11  1 - 7 +5 -2 A+ F+ F +6 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 209 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  1 - 8 -25 -5 C- F D- -22 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 9 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  1 - 9 -41 -1 A+ D+ F -31 F F B
 Fri, Dec 19 48 @Baylor L 56 - 113 2% -29  1 - 10 -43 -18 F D- D -19 F C A-
 Mon, Dec 29 64 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  1 - 11 -24 -21 F F B- -4 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 337 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 34% -7  1 - 12 0 - 1 -11 +9 C+ C- B- -20 F C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 297 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 23% -4  2 - 12 1 - 1 -3 -5 D- F B +2 C+ D B-
 Mon, Jan 12 318 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 28% -6  2 - 13 1 - 2 -21 -12 F C D+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 306 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 46% -1  2 - 14 1 - 3 -12 -2 F+ F D -10 D+ D- D
 Mon, Jan 19 345 Prairie View W 76 - 75 60% +3  3 - 14 2 - 3 -14 -3 F C+ C- -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 28% +0  3 - 15 2 - 4 -14 -13 D- F F -2 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 248 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 16% -11  3 - 16 2 - 5 -11 -1 F+ B+ B- -10 F B C
 Sat, Jan 31 260 Southern L 73 - 77 36%
 Mon, Feb 2 288 Grambling St. L 71 - 73 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 76 - 81 31%
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 248 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 78 33%
 Mon, Feb 16 315 Florida A&M L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 337 Jackson St. W 78 - 76 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 306 @Texas Southern L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 345 @Prairie View L 76 - 80 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 63 91%
 Thu, Mar 5 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 8 - 22 7 - 11 -12 -7 D+ D- F+ -5 F+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 1.0 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.1 0.4 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 2.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 6.2 0.5 7.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.6 3.5 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 8.7 0.6 12.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 8.9 4.1 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 8.0 7.8 0.5 18.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.7 8.2 8.1 1.6 0.0 22.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.9 10.1 18.2 21.5 20.3 14.2 7.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 41.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 7.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.1 0.7
11-7 2.6% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.2 2.3
10-8 7.5% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.4 7.1
9-9 14.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 13.6
8-10 20.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 20.0
7-11 21.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.4
6-12 18.2% 18.2
5-13 10.1% 10.1
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 98.3 0.0%