Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#294
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#216
Pace68.8#165
Improvement-0.4#236

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#298
First Shot-6.4#340
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#34
Layup/Dunks-2.6#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#342
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement-0.3#241

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#270
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#355
Layups/Dunks-0.5#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#137
Freethrows-2.6#333
Improvement-0.1#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 10.8% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 67.4% 85.3% 60.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.9% 98.1%
Conference Champion 12.4% 27.7% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.4% 5.5% 4.0%
First Round4.6% 7.4% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 96   @ Mississippi L 58-73 9%     0 - 1 -7.1 -7.3 -0.4
  Nov 12, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. W 66-57 11%     1 - 1 +15.3 +6.8 +9.6
  Nov 15, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin W 69-60 13%     2 - 1 +13.8 -2.1 +15.8
  Nov 22, 2022 176   @ UTEP L 61-73 2OT 18%     2 - 2 -9.5 -11.1 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-98 39%     2 - 3 -35.4 -11.7 -22.9
  Nov 25, 2022 307   Cal St. Bakersfield W 62-54 53%     3 - 3 +0.0 -12.4 +12.4
  Nov 27, 2022 64   @ Arizona St. L 54-76 5%     3 - 4 -10.9 -10.7 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2022 118   @ Grand Canyon L 72-80 12%     3 - 5 -2.5 +9.2 -12.7
  Dec 04, 2022 1   @ Tennessee L 40-94 1%     3 - 6 -31.8 -17.6 -14.9
  Dec 10, 2022 130   @ Southern Illinois L 68-74 13%     3 - 7 -1.0 +2.7 -3.9
  Dec 18, 2022 125   @ Seattle L 58-72 13%     3 - 8 -8.9 -8.2 -1.1
  Dec 20, 2022 61   @ Dayton L 46-88 5%     3 - 9 -30.7 -16.4 -16.7
  Jan 02, 2023 326   Jackson St. L 66-67 68%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -13.1 -13.6 +0.6
  Jan 07, 2023 342   Alabama A&M W 89-76 75%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -1.2 +6.4 -8.4
  Jan 09, 2023 352   Alabama St. W 92-76 78%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +0.5 +10.3 -10.3
  Jan 14, 2023 312   @ Texas Southern W 79-74 OT 43%     6 - 10 3 - 1 -0.5 -1.5 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2023 286   @ Prairie View W 77-68 OT 38%     7 - 10 4 - 1 +5.1 +1.9 +2.7
  Jan 21, 2023 359   Florida A&M W 57-47 86%     8 - 10 5 - 1 -9.0 -13.6 +5.9
  Jan 23, 2023 355   Bethune-Cookman W 76-68 83%     9 - 10 6 - 1 -9.2 -7.6 -1.8
  Jan 28, 2023 236   @ Southern L 68-80 28%     9 - 11 6 - 2 -13.2 -6.3 -6.3
  Jan 30, 2023 232   @ Grambling St. L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 06, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 355   @ Bethune-Cookman W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 13, 2023 359   @ Florida A&M W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 326   @ Jackson St. L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 286   Prairie View W 67-65 60%    
  Feb 27, 2023 312   Texas Southern W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 02, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 04, 2023 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 69-68 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.9 1.0 12.4 1st
2nd 0.6 5.5 11.4 8.2 1.7 0.1 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.6 14.2 8.5 1.3 0.0 31.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 8.9 3.5 0.3 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 1.6 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 9.6 17.8 23.6 22.4 14.7 5.7 1.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 92.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2
15-3 68.9% 3.9    1.9 1.8 0.2
14-4 35.0% 5.1    1.6 2.5 1.0 0.0
13-5 9.6% 2.1    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 4.7 5.5 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.1% 20.9% 20.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9
15-3 5.7% 18.3% 18.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 4.6
14-4 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.3 1.6 12.9
13-5 22.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 20.6
12-6 23.6% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 22.1
11-7 17.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.6 17.1
10-8 9.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 9.4
9-9 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
8-10 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.8 6.3 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 20.9% 15.1 1.8 14.2 4.8