Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#295
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#285
Pace71.5#126
Improvement+1.7#58

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#226
First Shot-1.6#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#245
Freethrows-0.1#182
Improvement+0.8#100

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#329
First Shot-5.0#320
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#217
Layups/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.1#361
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+0.9#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 15.9% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 12.7% 33.0% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.0% 79.8% 69.4%
Conference Champion 7.3% 11.7% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four7.3% 10.2% 7.2%
First Round5.4% 11.1% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 31 - 41 - 12
Quad 410 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 52   @ Arkansas L 59-93 4%     0 - 1 -21.2 -10.3 -9.7
  Nov 14, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. L 86-100 26%     0 - 2 -14.4 +12.3 -26.6
  Nov 16, 2023 115   @ UAB L 77-80 11%     0 - 3 +3.5 -0.6 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2023 17   @ Michigan St. L 49-81 2%     0 - 4 -13.8 -10.4 -5.2
  Nov 21, 2023 23   @ TCU L 74-93 3%     0 - 5 -2.9 +0.2 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2023 190   @ Texas Arlington L 69-82 21%     0 - 6 -11.5 +1.6 -14.0
  Nov 24, 2023 35   @ Clemson L 69-90 3%     0 - 7 -6.2 +1.7 -7.7
  Dec 10, 2023 83   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-81 6%    
  Dec 12, 2023 56   @ Maryland L 61-80 3%    
  Dec 17, 2023 110   @ Northern Iowa L 68-82 9%    
  Dec 19, 2023 84   @ Drake L 66-83 6%    
  Dec 21, 2023 149   @ George Washington L 75-86 15%    
  Jan 06, 2024 259   @ Jackson St. L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 13, 2024 349   @ Alabama A&M W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 15, 2024 331   @ Alabama St. W 74-73 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 235   Texas Southern L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 22, 2024 233   Prairie View L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 340   @ Florida A&M W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 29, 2024 356   @ Bethune-Cookman W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 320   Southern W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 05, 2024 328   Grambling St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 354   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 12, 2024 362   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 17, 2024 356   Bethune-Cookman W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2024 340   Florida A&M W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 259   Jackson St. W 77-76 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 233   @ Prairie View L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 04, 2024 235   @ Texas Southern L 71-77 29%    
  Mar 07, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 78-63 91%    
  Mar 09, 2024 354   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-76 80%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.3 1.8 0.3 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.3 2.5 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 6.8 2.6 0.2 13.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.3 0.2 12.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 5.2 2.9 0.4 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 5.7 7.6 11.6 13.2 15.3 13.7 11.6 8.3 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 99.4% 0.7    0.6 0.0
15-3 86.8% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 49.9% 2.5    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.0% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 43.8% 43.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 42.3% 42.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4
15-3 2.2% 36.9% 36.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4
14-4 5.0% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7
13-5 8.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.3
12-6 11.6% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 10.1
11-7 13.7% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.3 12.4
10-8 15.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.0 14.3
9-9 13.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 12.7
8-10 11.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.4
7-11 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.5
6-12 5.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 8.4 90.9 0.0%