Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #8
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #2
New Prairie Regional Rank #1
New Prairie Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 6th place at State Finals
State Champion 1.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 35.2%
Top 10 at State Finals 84.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Rudy Skorupa Invitational THSB State Preview Wildcat Classic Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 231 184 221 220 203 580 234 259 250 241 226
Team Adjusted Rating 184 221 220 203 231 234 259 250 241 226
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Rudy Skorupa Invitational THSB State Preview Wildcat Classic Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
28  Collin Huber 12 16:05 15:54 16:07 16:08 15:53 16:05 16:06 16:11 15:59 16:14
71  Carlos Martinez 12 16:24 16:27 16:21 16:23 16:07 16:17 16:28 16:34 16:44 16:19
76  Nate Smith 11 16:26 16:08 16:29 16:26 16:32 16:31 16:33 16:26 16:17 16:23
101  Jack Acton 10 16:35 16:39 16:37 16:38 16:30 16:38 16:38 16:43 16:40 16:28
148  Carl Frey 12 16:46 16:30 16:36 16:33 16:45 16:51 17:01 16:45 16:46 16:56
191  Logan Fullenkamp 12 16:52 16:31 16:36 16:49 17:33
209  Matt Cavanaugh 12 16:55 16:54 16:38 16:54 18:28 16:52 17:04 16:48 16:53 16:49
265  Nick Tonne 12 17:04 17:02 17:03 17:16 17:03 17:09 16:59 17:03
287  Joe Angert 11 17:07 16:43 17:07 17:08 16:51 17:47
414  Nick Clark 10 17:24 17:09 17:23 17:24 17:24 17:33
435  Ty Puskar 10 17:26 17:11 17:32 17:20 17:30 17:27
581  Will Miltenberger 9 17:42 17:43 17:40 17:49 17:32
638  Tommy Cavanaugh 10 17:47 17:39 17:37 18:01 17:46
647  George Azar 12 17:47 17:31 17:37 18:22
680  Joey Roytan 10 17:50 17:33 17:16 19:04 17:14 18:45
733  Carter Stephens 10 17:55 17:56 17:54 18:00 17:49
762  Ethan Vinyard 10 17:58 18:03 17:50 17:56 18:01
817  Tyler Villarreal 11 18:02 17:58 18:04
945  Bobby Woodburn 10 18:11 18:20 17:34 18:23
1,051  Jackson Lemmon 11 18:18 18:06 18:27
1,511  Alex Lawley 12 18:52 19:15 18:37
1,537  Matt Graber 12 18:53 18:30 19:10
Carlson Farha 9 19:04 19:24 18:51
Nick Wagenblast 11 19:06 18:52 19:16
Jared Buls 12 19:07 19:23 18:57
Jackson Greene 11 19:10 19:32 18:56




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 7.2 245 1.2 4.6 7.0 10.4 12.0 13.1 12.1 10.7 7.6 5.4 5.1 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.6 84 57.4 32.6 7.1 2.5 0.5
Regionals 100% 1.0 30 98.9 1.1 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 99.8 0.3



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Collin Huber 100% 30.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.5 98.8%
Carlos Martinez 100% 68.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 74.4%
Nate Smith 100% 72.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 70.4%
Jack Acton 100% 93.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 39.0%
Carl Frey 100% 118.7 12.1%
Logan Fullenkamp 100% 131.5 5.0%
Matt Cavanaugh 100% 135.9 3.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Collin Huber 100% 5.6 1.5 3.8 9.3 12.9 14.9 13.4 8.8 6.9 6.8 5.5 3.9 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Carlos Martinez 100% 15.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.9 5.1 5.2 6.3 5.5 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.0 4.6 3.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 100.0%
Nate Smith 100% 16.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.6 5.8 5.2 6.1 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 4.9 4.9 4.0 3.8 3.1 2.9 100.0%
Jack Acton 100% 23.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 1.9 4.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.3 100.0%
Carl Frey 100% 32.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.9 99.8%
Logan Fullenkamp 100% 38.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.4 98.9%
Matt Cavanaugh 100% 41.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 98.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Collin Huber 100% 1.7 8.2 56.7 25.5 6.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Carlos Martinez 100% 4.7 0.1 1.2 12.9 22.2 20.0 16.3 11.2 7.2 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Nate Smith 100% 5.0 0.6 9.3 18.4 21.5 16.9 11.8 7.7 5.2 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Jack Acton 100% 7.7 0.1 1.1 3.2 7.2 11.9 15.3 15.3 13.4 10.1 6.8 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Carl Frey 100% 11.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 4.0 7.2 7.5 10.2 11.2 10.9 10.3 8.4 7.7 5.3 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Logan Fullenkamp 100% 14.2 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.6 3.8 5.2 7.7 9.8 9.2 9.2 8.6 8.6 7.4 6.1 4.7 4.1 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.8 1.2 100.0%
Matt Cavanaugh 100% 15.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 3.1 5.4 6.4 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.1 7.4 7.0 7.4 5.5 3.9 3.3 2.8 1.6 1.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Collin Huber 1.5 8.8 79.3 10.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Carlos Martinez 3.6 1.8 29.1 31.5 19.5 10.7 4.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Nate Smith 3.9 1.0 24.0 26.5 24.5 11.9 6.9 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jack Acton 5.8 2.3 7.7 19.0 25.6 19.5 10.9 6.4 3.7 2.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Carl Frey 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.5 12.9 18.6 15.8 12.1 9.8 7.1 5.2 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Logan Fullenkamp 10.7 0.4 1.5 4.7 9.1 12.1 13.7 11.7 10.5 9.0 8.4 6.1 4.0 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2
Matt Cavanaugh 11.7 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.2 10.0 12.2 11.2 12.0 9.8 8.2 7.0 6.8 4.0 3.1 2.7 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3