Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #1
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 46.9%
Top 5 at State Finals 95.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/16 9/23 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 132 49 113 386 301 682 176 198 203 216 144
Team Adjusted Rating 49 113 134 139 132 136 198 150 151 144
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Zoe Duffus 9 18:23 17:56 18:08 18:31 17:58 19:20 19:24
34  Meagan Hathaway 11 18:59 17:57 18:25 19:29 19:20 18:59 18:55
49  Leah Metzger 12 19:16 18:58 19:14 19:00 19:25 19:32 19:25 19:21 19:12
52  Maggie Falater 12 19:19 18:54 19:33 19:18 19:26 19:32 19:22 19:23 19:10
58  Mallory Clements 10 19:21 19:22 19:07 19:46 19:22 19:29 19:22 19:45 19:13
98  Rayna Fruchey 10 19:38 20:37 20:16 20:26 20:23 20:04 20:03 20:20 19:30
242  Kathleen Ellingson 11 20:29 20:25 20:24 22:08 20:48 21:07 20:21 20:21
258  Ashlyn Minton 9 20:34 20:30 20:28 20:21 21:07 22:31 20:24 20:20 20:13 21:03
299  Shelby Christman 9 20:41 20:26 20:26 21:19 20:38 20:32 20:52
402  Hannah Loeffler 11 21:03 20:55 20:49 20:47 21:47 21:12
505  Courtney Brown 10 21:19 21:20 21:14 21:15 22:04 21:04
599  Elizabeth LaLonde 10 21:36 21:49 22:22 21:25 21:25 21:30
624  Maya Wilkins 10 21:41 21:15 21:53 21:47 21:25 22:00
715  Cobi Landwehr 9 21:54 21:34 21:46 22:04 22:07
810  Kiana Thurber 10 22:09 22:48 22:11 21:50 22:03
826  Ava Kreilach 9 22:11 22:48 21:50 22:07
882  Rylee Shotts 9 22:19 22:17 21:46 23:09
1,306  Jadynn Kable 11 23:18 23:04 23:35
1,365  Molly Duffner 11 23:23 23:11 23:28 23:05 23:14 24:22
Zoe Davis 11 23:36 23:18 23:46 23:15 23:19 24:58
Caitlyn Fisher 10 23:40 23:22 23:33 23:33 24:17
Abby Green 11 00:00 17:36




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 2.2 134 46.9 24.4 12.6 7.3 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.0 41 100.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 32 100.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 19 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 6.4 2.2 4.9 7.6 12.2 10.0 9.4 8.8 6.6 5.5 6.5 4.4 3.2 2.7 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 32.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.8 98.3%
Leah Metzger 100% 52.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.0 88.1%
Maggie Falater 100% 55.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 85.4%
Mallory Clements 100% 59.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 81.3%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 86.1 44.6%
Kathleen Ellingson 100% 156.1 0.2%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 2.4 8.6 29.7 30.0 16.0 8.7 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 8.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 5.6 11.2 13.4 14.3 14.4 11.7 7.9 6.2 4.4 2.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Leah Metzger 100% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.3 4.2 7.0 9.0 10.8 11.1 11.7 10.0 7.6 6.2 5.1 4.2 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 100.0%
Maggie Falater 100% 12.8 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.0 5.2 8.5 10.7 10.7 10.9 10.9 7.5 7.2 5.4 4.6 3.5 2.4 2.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 13.7 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 4.1 6.7 7.7 9.2 11.4 9.3 9.7 8.8 7.3 5.0 4.4 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.4 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 19.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 6.1 7.3 6.9 8.7 6.8 6.8 6.2 6.6 5.3 4.6 4.2 100.0%
Kathleen Ellingson 100% 52.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 98.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.7 10.9 56.0 23.2 7.8 2.1 0.2 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 5.0 0.5 5.9 16.2 26.3 33.1 12.5 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Leah Metzger 100% 7.2 0.3 2.0 5.3 13.3 23.3 24.6 16.4 8.6 3.3 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Maggie Falater 100% 7.6 0.4 1.3 3.0 9.6 21.8 22.0 20.1 12.0 4.6 2.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 8.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 6.4 14.9 22.4 23.6 13.2 8.4 3.6 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 10.7 0.2 1.6 3.3 9.6 21.7 18.9 15.5 9.9 7.2 4.6 2.3 2.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Kathleen Ellingson 100% 24.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.7 3.6 4.1 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.0 6.3 6.2 7.1 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 1.0 90.0 9.9 0.2
Meagan Hathaway 2.4 0.3 29.2 50.4 13.2 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Leah Metzger 4.2 1.9 11.9 30.3 26.0 18.4 6.7 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1
Maggie Falater 4.6 2.2 9.5 21.6 26.8 24.4 9.4 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1
Mallory Clements 4.9 1.2 6.2 19.3 25.3 25.5 12.0 5.7 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1
Rayna Fruchey 7.2 0.2 1.4 3.1 9.6 31.2 20.3 13.3 8.6 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Kathleen Ellingson 18.8 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.9 5.4 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.6 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.4 4.9 6.0