Northridge
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #29
New Haven Semi-State Rank #8
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #2
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC/NLC Conferences Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 8/26 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 379 399 382 387 631 418 507 456 376 408
Team Adjusted Rating 399 382 387 388 418 472 438 376 408
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC/NLC Conferences Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
86  Jenna Miller 12 19:36 19:20 19:44 19:30 19:45 19:53 19:41 19:31 19:33 19:36 19:31
147  Caitlin Clark 10 20:00 19:17 19:30 19:45 19:22 19:49 22:56 20:25 20:02 20:12
213  Mackenzie Adams 12 20:22 20:01 20:18 20:19 20:21 20:19 20:11 20:32 20:23 20:40 20:28
249  Keeton LeBaron 9 20:31 21:46 20:59 22:44 20:58 20:41 21:15 20:16 20:43
420  Sami Moore 10 21:06 21:20 20:50 20:59 20:40 21:30 20:57 21:28
530  Alison Bache 10 21:24 22:11 22:13 21:55 22:09 21:30 21:28 21:25 21:19 21:15
561  Melissa Bailey 12 21:29 21:31 21:25 21:26 21:43 21:33 21:42 22:01 21:18 21:20
756  Molly Campbell 12 22:02 21:57 21:46 21:59 21:57 22:01 22:31
1,113  Nicole Miller 9 22:53 23:27 22:45 23:08 22:47 22:45
1,203  Ann Metzger 10 23:04 23:55 23:11 23:16 22:58 22:37




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 21.8 506 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.7 5.4 7.7 8.7 13.7 22.2 31.2
Semi-State 100% 6.2 194 3.3 6.8 10.2 16.3 17.3 17.1 19.3 6.9 2.0 0.9 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.9 57 14.8 80.4 4.6 0.3
Sectionals 100% 1.0 34 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jenna Miller 100% 81.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 118.3 9.7%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 147.1 0.7%
Keeton LeBaron 100% 157.9 0.1%
Sami Moore 100% 190.0 0.0%
Alison Bache 100% 198.3 0.0%
Melissa Bailey 100% 200.5 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jenna Miller 100% 18.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.5 6.1 5.7 6.6 7.6 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.6 5.4 4.6 4.3 3.5 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 29.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.3 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.2 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 44.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 100.0%
Keeton LeBaron 100% 53.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8%
Sami Moore 100% 89.9 80.8%
Alison Bache 100% 107.9 42.5%
Melissa Bailey 100% 113.0 31.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jenna Miller 100% 3.5 2.0 15.4 16.3 31.5 16.6 9.2 4.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.5 13.4 15.7 14.2 12.1 10.9 8.9 5.9 4.6 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 12.3 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 5.6 6.7 8.6 9.6 9.5 11.3 9.7 8.8 7.5 5.9 4.3 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 100.0%
Keeton LeBaron 100% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.1 3.1 3.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 9.7 11.6 10.1 10.2 7.0 6.0 4.3 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 100.0%
Sami Moore 100% 25.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.7 3.5 4.6 6.3 6.5 5.9 7.2 5.7 100.0%
Alison Bache 100% 33.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.5 100.0%
Melissa Bailey 100% 36.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jenna Miller 1.6 3.4 74.4 16.8 3.9 1.0 0.5 0.2
Caitlin Clark 3.3 0.1 4.2 37.7 27.6 15.5 8.8 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.2
Mackenzie Adams 6.3 0.1 1.5 7.8 14.6 20.0 19.0 17.3 11.2 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Keeton LeBaron 7.7 0.3 2.7 6.5 9.0 15.6 21.5 21.1 14.0 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Sami Moore 12.6 0.4 1.3 2.8 7.9 13.1 16.3 14.3 11.9 10.0 8.1 5.4 3.9 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Alison Bache 16.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.5 6.4 8.7 10.0 12.3 13.1 12.6 10.9 7.0 5.7 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.3
Melissa Bailey 17.7 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.9 5.4 8.1 10.4 11.7 12.5 14.1 12.7 8.2 4.6 3.5 1.9 0.6