Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #6
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #1
New Prairie Regional Rank #1
New Prairie Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 7th place at State Finals
State Champion 1.3%
Top 5 at State Finals 30.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 84.4%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Rudy Skorupa Invitational Mike Kuharic Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 197 233 261 242 214 208 253 238 173 236
Team Adjusted Rating 233 261 242 214 208 253 238 173 236
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Rudy Skorupa Invitational Mike Kuharic Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
15  Ava Gilliana 10 18:46 18:55 19:30 18:55 18:53 18:48 18:53 18:47 18:33 19:19
17  Logan Ferngren 12 18:47 19:01 19:10 19:26 18:53 18:49 19:13 19:12 18:49 18:39
118  Emily Worthington 9 19:46 19:54 19:55 19:56 19:51 19:44 20:04 19:54 19:32 20:13
125  Hannah Fitzgerald 9 19:50 20:23 20:40 19:58 20:02 20:44 21:14 20:34 19:50 19:41
144  Sarah Worthington 9 19:57 19:54 19:56 20:10 19:57 19:47 20:05 20:00 19:42 20:37
229  Julia Arnold 11 20:26 20:49 20:25 20:40 20:38 20:15 20:43 20:22 20:12 20:19
279  Elena Kipp 12 20:38 20:34 20:33 20:31 20:36 20:45 20:26 20:47 20:51 20:42
511  Nicole Brandy 10 21:21 20:57 21:06 21:17 21:34 21:33 21:24
583  Corinne Ritzi 11 21:34 21:40 21:30 21:58 21:21
631  Hannah Shepherd 10 21:42 21:37 22:09 21:32 21:39
645  Kristyn Hoffman 10 21:44 21:33 21:29 21:58 21:55
770  Megan Dalton 12 22:03 21:36 21:49 23:26 21:46 22:10
792  Adrianna McFadden 11 22:07 21:47 22:31 22:29 21:50
819  Madelyn Whaling 11 22:11 22:01 22:11 22:23
831  Ruth Stamp 10 22:12 22:39 22:13 22:07 22:09 22:02
1,030  Mary Warner 12 22:42 22:38 22:52 23:00 22:23
1,081  Izzy Iussig 12 22:49 22:07 23:27 22:19 23:18
1,086  Diane McGovern 12 22:51 22:49 23:08 23:01 22:30
1,104  Sarah Bennett 9 22:53 22:32 22:33 23:58 22:56
1,116  Valerie Massey 12 22:53 22:57 22:48 22:41 23:07
1,118  Abby Steele 11 22:54 22:52 23:36 22:41 22:42
1,160  Skyler Cummins 9 22:59 22:48 22:55 23:42 22:47
1,244  Bridget McGrath 12 23:09 23:19 22:45 23:18 23:15
1,375  Lucy Cobble 12 23:24 23:31 23:22 23:42 23:09
Lilly O'Shea 10 23:36 23:19 23:27 23:32 24:16
Maryn Lazar 9 23:47 24:07 24:34 23:19 23:26
Emma Fitzgerald 11 24:06 23:51 24:05 24:32 24:02
Hannah Lopez 11 24:19 23:59 25:08 24:06 24:21
Kelsey Prewitt 11 24:28 23:16 26:14 24:18




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 7.4 240 1.3 2.7 5.7 8.9 11.4 12.1 12.2 11.2 11.3 7.6 6.0 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2
Semi-State 100% 1.5 88 68.0 21.9 6.8 2.3 0.8 0.3
Regionals 100% 1.1 35 95.6 3.8 0.7
Sectionals 100% 1.1 33 94.4 5.0 0.7



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 19.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.3 2.1 3.4 3.3 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.4 2.7 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 4.0 2.7 3.5 3.2 2.3 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 19.7 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.7 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.7 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.4 100.0%
Emily Worthington 100% 99.4 44.6%
Hannah Fitzgerald 100% 104.1 0.1 37.4%
Sarah Worthington 100% 115.5 21.2%
Julia Arnold 100% 153.2 0.3%
Elena Kipp 100% 166.3 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 3.9 8.1 13.9 14.4 15.1 14.2 10.1 8.9 5.8 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 4.1 6.7 11.0 15.4 15.5 12.4 11.2 9.8 6.6 4.1 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Emily Worthington 100% 25.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 4.9 100.0%
Hannah Fitzgerald 100% 27.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.7 4.2 3.9 4.1 100.0%
Sarah Worthington 100% 32.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.4 3.3 2.7 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 55.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 67.0 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 1.5 32.4 33.2 20.2 9.1 3.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 1.7 28.7 32.2 26.0 8.5 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Emily Worthington 100% 9.6 0.9 3.5 6.1 8.0 10.3 12.8 13.8 13.3 11.4 9.7 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 100.0%
Hannah Fitzgerald 100% 10.3 0.8 1.3 4.6 5.0 8.7 11.9 13.6 15.3 13.0 11.2 7.8 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Sarah Worthington 100% 12.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 2.2 4.3 5.5 9.0 12.5 14.5 16.7 14.1 10.5 4.6 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 17.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.3 6.1 11.5 15.8 13.4 11.5 8.6 8.4 6.9 4.7 4.4 2.6 1.6 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 19.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 6.6 9.8 10.3 10.3 9.1 9.9 8.9 7.9 6.4 5.9 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 1.5 31.6 33.5 22.4 9.6 2.5 0.4 0.1
Logan Ferngren 1.7 29.1 31.9 24.6 10.2 3.7 0.6 0.1
Emily Worthington 8.0 0.2 1.0 5.3 12.0 15.3 16.8 15.6 12.9 10.2 6.8 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1
Hannah Fitzgerald 8.6 0.2 0.5 4.0 8.6 11.6 14.8 17.5 15.0 13.0 8.6 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
Sarah Worthington 10.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.9 16.7 17.2 16.0 10.3 4.5 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Julia Arnold 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.1 6.2 12.5 19.0 16.7 13.2 10.2 8.0 5.2 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Elena Kipp 16.8 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.0 9.0 11.9 12.4 13.0 14.0 12.5 9.8 6.7 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3