Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Duke 99.7%   3   14 - 3 4 - 2 24 - 6 14 - 5 +17.0      +10.2 8 +6.9 23 71.5 100 +16.6 13 +11.5 4
32 Virginia Tech 46.0%   10 - 7 2 - 4 19 - 12 11 - 9 +11.6      +5.7 38 +5.8 40 61.9 334 +7.4 80 +4.5 10
34 North Carolina 59.8%   9   12 - 5 4 - 2 20 - 11 12 - 8 +11.5      +7.9 21 +3.6 80 76.5 27 +11.2 49 +10.4 7
42 Florida St. 57.2%   11   11 - 5 5 - 2 19 - 11 13 - 7 +10.4      +4.6 54 +5.8 42 69.6 151 +11.3 48 +14.1 2
49 Wake Forest 57.9%   10   15 - 4 5 - 3 22 - 9 12 - 8 +9.9      +5.0 50 +4.9 58 72.4 81 +13.2 33 +12.8 3
58 Miami (FL) 59.0%   10   14 - 4 6 - 1 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8.6      +8.0 20 +0.6 150 68.8 176 +13.5 31 +20.2 1
61 Syracuse 11.1%   9 - 9 3 - 4 16 - 15 10 - 10 +8.4      +9.0 14 -0.6 189 70.1 138 +5.1 101 +6.0 9
65 Notre Dame 22.8%   10 - 6 4 - 2 18 - 12 12 - 8 +8.2      +6.0 37 +2.2 104 64.9 294 +9.2 61 +11.0 5
67 Virginia 19.4%   11 - 7 5 - 3 17 - 13 11 - 9 +8.0      +3.0 95 +5.0 57 53.5 358 +7.3 83 +10.8 6
68 Clemson 7.9%   10 - 8 2 - 5 16 - 14 8 - 11 +8.0      +4.8 51 +3.2 86 67.0 231 +5.7 95 +2.9 12
86 Louisville 10.0%   11 - 7 5 - 3 16 - 14 10 - 10 +6.6      +1.3 139 +5.3 50 70.4 132 +6.6 86 +8.0 8
97 North Carolina St. 1.5%   9 - 10 2 - 6 14 - 17 7 - 13 +5.8      +5.7 40 +0.1 165 67.5 217 +3.2 123 +3.2 11
125 Georgia Tech 0.1%   7 - 10 1 - 6 11 - 19 5 - 15 +2.8      -0.6 195 +3.4 83 68.3 187 0.0 169 -2.0 15
138 Boston College 0.1%   7 - 9 2 - 4 11 - 19 6 - 14 +1.6      +1.1 149 +0.5 155 66.0 264 -0.5 179 +2.5 13
139 Pittsburgh 0.1%   7 - 11 2 - 5 10 - 21 5 - 15 +1.6      -0.1 179 +1.6 121 62.0 332 -0.9 189 +0.9 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.2 50.3 21.4 11.4 6.8 4.1 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 5.6 5.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 11.7 11.5 9.8 8.9 7.0 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
North Carolina 4.2 17.3 15.4 14.7 13.3 10.8 8.6 6.6 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 4.1 17.6 16.4 14.5 13.1 10.6 9.1 6.7 5.2 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 4.6 9.8 13.4 14.6 14.5 13.1 11.3 8.7 6.2 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Miami (FL) 3.7 21.5 19.4 14.6 11.9 9.4 7.5 5.6 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 8.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 5.6 7.1 9.4 10.9 13.2 14.1 12.8 9.4 6.0 3.1 1.1 0.4
Notre Dame 5.3 9.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 11.8 10.6 9.6 8.2 6.2 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Virginia 6.5 3.6 5.6 7.5 9.6 11.0 12.1 12.5 12.6 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Clemson 9.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.8 9.9 12.8 16.0 16.9 13.1 7.8 4.1 1.5
Louisville 8.0 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.3 12.2 13.3 14.1 11.6 6.5 2.2 0.6 0.0
North Carolina St. 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.6 8.1 11.4 16.7 20.4 15.6 9.3 5.0
Georgia Tech 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.1 7.6 12.3 19.5 24.0 27.6
Boston College 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.5 5.3 9.0 15.0 22.2 23.2 17.7
Pittsburgh 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.0 7.4 14.0 22.1 25.5 22.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 8.8 15.5 21.8 23.3 17.5 6.9
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.5 9.8 14.4 18.1 19.3 15.4 9.5 4.1 0.8
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.9 9.4 14.5 18.8 18.9 15.0 9.7 4.5 1.2 0.2
Florida St. 13 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 8.8 14.5 18.7 19.2 15.6 9.9 4.8 1.4 0.2
Wake Forest 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.7 11.3 18.0 21.9 19.4 13.1 6.0 1.7 0.3
Miami (FL) 13 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.5 7.7 12.5 17.5 18.6 16.6 12.1 6.5 2.6 0.8 0.1
Syracuse 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.7 8.5 14.7 19.3 19.4 16.4 10.1 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.1
Notre Dame 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.6 9.0 13.7 17.7 18.5 15.2 10.7 5.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
Virginia 11 - 9 0.1 0.8 2.8 8.0 14.3 19.9 20.2 16.7 10.5 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1
Clemson 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 10.5 16.1 19.9 19.3 15.0 8.4 3.2 0.7 0.1
Louisville 10 - 10 0.7 3.6 9.2 15.5 20.1 19.2 15.1 9.6 4.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.7 5.6 11.0 17.2 20.1 18.3 13.9 7.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 15 1.1 5.4 12.0 18.4 20.0 18.1 12.6 7.1 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 2.1 8.5 16.1 20.6 20.0 15.1 9.4 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 15 2.7 10.3 19.0 22.8 20.1 13.6 7.0 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 50.3% 32.1 12.9 4.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
Virginia Tech 5.9% 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 17.3% 8.5 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Florida St. 17.6% 8.7 5.6 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 9.8% 3.7 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Miami (FL) 21.5% 11.1 6.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Syracuse 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 9.1% 3.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Virginia 3.6% 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 1.3% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech
Boston College 0.0% 0.0
Pittsburgh


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 99.7% 42.6% 57.2% 3   13.3 17.3 19.7 19.3 13.3 8.0 4.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 99.5%
Virginia Tech 46.0% 10.1% 35.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.4 6.3 7.2 8.6 10.5 3.9 0.2 0.0 54.0 39.9%
North Carolina 59.8% 11.1% 48.7% 9   0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.3 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 4.1 0.3 0.0 40.2 54.8%
Florida St. 57.2% 8.8% 48.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.3 7.2 9.8 9.9 9.3 9.0 3.4 0.1 42.8 53.1%
Wake Forest 57.9% 6.8% 51.1% 10   0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.4 10.3 11.0 11.7 4.6 0.2 42.1 54.8%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 5.3% 53.7% 10   0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.7 10.0 12.0 10.5 9.8 3.1 0.1 41.0 56.7%
Syracuse 11.1% 3.0% 8.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.9 8.3%
Notre Dame 22.8% 4.0% 18.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 3.6 4.6 6.0 3.1 0.2 77.2 19.6%
Virginia 19.4% 3.4% 16.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.2 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 80.6 16.6%
Clemson 7.9% 2.3% 5.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1 5.8%
Louisville 10.0% 1.6% 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 90.0 8.6%
North Carolina St. 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.8%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Boston College 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99.7% 0.2% 99.7% 85.6% 56.2% 30.6% 15.8% 7.6% 3.7%
Virginia Tech 46.0% 8.6% 42.4% 23.1% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
North Carolina 59.8% 8.6% 56.1% 31.0% 10.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Florida St. 57.2% 7.8% 53.4% 26.4% 7.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Wake Forest 57.9% 10.8% 52.3% 23.9% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 7.8% 54.6% 22.9% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 11.1% 2.9% 9.6% 4.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 22.8% 5.8% 19.7% 8.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia 19.4% 4.5% 16.8% 6.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 7.9% 3.0% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 10.0% 3.2% 8.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.5 0.1 2.2 13.7 33.1 33.7 14.3 2.7 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.2 0.3 3.9 20.1 37.5 28.2 8.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 98.5% 2.4 1.5 17.3 38.0 30.3 10.9 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 74.2% 1.0 25.8 51.4 19.7 2.8 0.2
Elite Eight 41.6% 0.5 58.4 37.2 4.2 0.2 0.0
Final Four 20.2% 0.2 79.8 19.6 0.6 0.0
Final Game 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.0 0.0
Champion 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1