Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#58
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#31
Pace68.8#176
Improvement+8.5#1

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#20
First Shot+8.1#10
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#192
Layup/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
Freethrows+2.3#32
Improvement+5.0#5

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#321
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+3.5#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 9.9% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.0% 68.3% 48.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.7% 66.1% 45.9%
Average Seed 8.9 8.6 9.4
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 98.1% 91.2%
Conference Champion 21.5% 30.2% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.8% 6.8% 8.9%
First Round54.6% 64.3% 43.2%
Second Round22.9% 27.8% 17.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 6.6% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 5
Quad 27 - 411 - 9
Quad 36 - 217 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 286   Canisius W 77-67 95%     1 - 0 +0.3 -4.4 +4.1
  Nov 13, 2021 81   Central Florida L 89-95 65%     1 - 1 -1.4 +13.6 -14.6
  Nov 16, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 68-66 70%     2 - 1 +5.2 -3.6 +8.9
  Nov 21, 2021 320   Florida A&M W 86-59 96%     3 - 1 +14.4 +10.2 +4.6
  Nov 25, 2021 72   Dayton L 60-76 54%     3 - 2 -8.5 -6.8 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2021 83   North Texas W 69-63 56%     4 - 2 +13.0 +10.0 +3.8
  Nov 28, 2021 16   Alabama L 64-96 28%     4 - 3 -17.5 -4.3 -12.8
  Dec 01, 2021 56   @ Penn St. W 63-58 39%     5 - 3 +16.4 +3.5 +13.4
  Dec 04, 2021 68   Clemson W 80-75 62%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +10.5 +12.3 -1.6
  Dec 08, 2021 280   Lipscomb W 76-59 94%     7 - 3 +7.6 -7.7 +14.7
  Dec 12, 2021 215   Fordham W 72-66 85%     8 - 3 +3.6 +1.5 +2.1
  Dec 20, 2021 293   Stetson W 82-72 95%     9 - 3 -0.3 +12.6 -11.9
  Dec 29, 2021 97   North Carolina St. W 91-83 70%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +11.3 +16.2 -5.0
  Jan 01, 2022 49   Wake Forest W 92-84 55%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +15.4 +21.2 -5.9
  Jan 05, 2022 61   Syracuse W 88-87 60%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +6.9 +9.2 -2.3
  Jan 08, 2022 10   @ Duke W 76-74 15%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +21.6 +10.6 +10.9
  Jan 11, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 64-65 34%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +11.9 +6.3 +5.4
  Jan 18, 2022 34   North Carolina W 85-57 48%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +37.0 +15.3 +21.9
  Jan 22, 2022 42   Florida St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 26, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 02, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 67   @ Virginia L 63-65 41%    
  Feb 09, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 86   @ Louisville L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 67   Virginia W 65-62 63%    
  Feb 22, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 32   Virginia Tech L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 02, 2022 138   @ Boston College W 75-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2022 61   @ Syracuse L 78-80 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.4 5.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.1 8.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 7.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.5 4.2 0.4 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 5.4 0.8 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.8 4.8 1.8 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 2.8 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.5 7.7 12.5 17.5 18.6 16.6 12.1 6.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 99.3% 2.6    2.4 0.2
16-4 88.8% 5.7    3.9 1.8 0.1
15-5 60.8% 7.4    3.2 3.2 0.9 0.1
14-6 24.8% 4.1    0.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 11.1 6.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 99.4% 11.2% 88.2% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
16-4 6.5% 98.6% 9.9% 88.7% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
15-5 12.1% 94.5% 8.7% 85.9% 8.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 3.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.7 94.0%
14-6 16.6% 85.3% 6.6% 78.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 4.4 3.3 1.6 0.1 2.4 84.3%
13-7 18.6% 67.6% 5.8% 61.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.0 65.7%
12-8 17.5% 43.0% 3.7% 39.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 1.3 0.0 9.9 40.9%
11-9 12.5% 21.9% 1.9% 20.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 9.7 20.4%
10-10 7.7% 7.7% 1.0% 6.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.1 6.8%
9-11 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.6%
8-12 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 59.0% 5.3% 53.7% 8.9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.7 10.0 12.0 10.5 9.8 3.1 0.1 41.0 56.7%