Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#42
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#48
Pace69.6#151
Improvement+0.9#135

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#54
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#97
Layup/Dunks+0.3#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement+2.3#58

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#42
First Shot+6.9#16
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#269
Layups/Dunks+5.0#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#208
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement-1.4#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 8.7% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.2% 57.7% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.1% 53.6% 26.9%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 9.5
.500 or above 98.6% 98.7% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 93.1% 86.0%
Conference Champion 17.6% 17.8% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.8% 7.8% 7.2%
First Round53.4% 53.9% 25.3%
Second Round26.4% 26.8% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen7.9% 8.0% 3.4%
Elite Eight2.9% 2.9% 1.9%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 26 - 310 - 10
Quad 37 - 216 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 211   Penn W 105-70 91%     1 - 0 +30.2 +15.0 +10.9
  Nov 14, 2021 35   @ Florida L 55-71 36%     1 - 1 -2.0 -10.0 +7.6
  Nov 17, 2021 135   Tulane W 59-54 85%     2 - 1 +4.4 -6.7 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2021 131   Loyola Marymount W 73-45 78%     3 - 1 +30.3 +1.5 +28.9
  Nov 22, 2021 126   Missouri W 81-58 77%     4 - 1 +25.6 +13.4 +13.1
  Nov 24, 2021 198   Boston University W 81-80 OT 90%     5 - 1 -3.1 +0.8 -3.9
  Nov 30, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 65-93 14%     5 - 2 -6.3 +0.7 -7.7
  Dec 04, 2021 61   Syracuse L 60-63 67%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.9 -14.1 +17.0
  Dec 12, 2021 113   South Carolina L 65-66 73%     5 - 4 +3.1 -3.6 +6.8
  Dec 15, 2021 280   Lipscomb W 97-60 96%     6 - 4 +27.6 +7.5 +16.9
  Jan 01, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. W 83-81 58%     7 - 4 1 - 1 +10.3 +10.2 +0.1
  Jan 04, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 54-76 42%     7 - 5 1 - 2 -9.6 -18.1 +10.7
  Jan 08, 2022 86   Louisville W 79-70 73%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +13.1 +12.1 +1.2
  Jan 11, 2022 58   Miami (FL) W 65-64 66%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +7.1 -0.3 +7.5
  Jan 15, 2022 61   @ Syracuse W 76-71 48%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +15.9 +12.2 +4.3
  Jan 18, 2022 10   Duke W 79-78 OT 34%     11 - 5 5 - 2 +15.5 +10.5 +5.1
  Jan 20, 2022 313   North Florida W 81-59 98%    
  Jan 22, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 32   Virginia Tech W 67-66 57%    
  Feb 02, 2022 68   @ Clemson L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 49   Wake Forest W 73-70 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 71-60 86%    
  Feb 12, 2022 34   @ North Carolina L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 15, 2022 68   Clemson W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 10   @ Duke L 68-77 19%    
  Feb 21, 2022 138   @ Boston College W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 67   @ Virginia L 60-61 47%    
  Mar 02, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 72-67 68%    
  Mar 05, 2022 97   North Carolina St. W 75-68 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.4 4.5 1.4 0.2 17.6 1st
2nd 0.5 4.9 7.6 3.2 0.3 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 8.0 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.1 4.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.7 5.7 1.0 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.7 2.0 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 3.2 0.3 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 8.8 14.5 18.7 19.2 15.6 9.9 4.8 1.4 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 99.9% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-4 93.4% 4.5    3.4 1.0 0.0
15-5 64.5% 6.4    3.0 2.7 0.7 0.0
14-6 28.6% 4.5    0.9 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 8.7 5.6 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 99.6% 21.5% 78.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-4 4.8% 99.4% 19.0% 80.4% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 9.9% 97.3% 15.5% 81.8% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
14-6 15.6% 89.4% 13.6% 75.8% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.7 3.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 1.7 87.8%
13-7 19.2% 71.4% 9.9% 61.4% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.5 68.2%
12-8 18.7% 48.9% 6.5% 42.5% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.4 1.2 0.0 9.5 45.4%
11-9 14.5% 24.2% 2.8% 21.4% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 11.0 22.1%
10-10 8.8% 9.1% 2.2% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 8.0 7.1%
9-11 4.7% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5 1.0%
8-12 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 6.0% 6.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.2% 8.8% 48.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.3 7.2 9.8 9.9 9.3 9.0 3.4 0.1 42.8 53.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 45.8 41.7 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 8.0 4.0 76.0 4.0 8.0