Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#86
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#86
Pace70.4#132
Improvement-3.9#331

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#139
First Shot+1.1#143
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks-1.2#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#133
Freethrows+1.0#102
Improvement+0.0#172

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#50
First Shot+3.3#70
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#40
Layups/Dunks+1.2#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-3.8#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 13.6% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.6% 12.0% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.6
.500 or above 60.5% 73.0% 45.1%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 64.4% 34.4%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four3.2% 4.1% 2.0%
First Round8.2% 11.2% 4.5%
Second Round2.9% 4.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 7
Quad 26 - 49 - 11
Quad 34 - 412 - 15
Quad 44 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 240   Southern W 72-60 89%     1 - 0 +5.2 -7.8 +12.3
  Nov 12, 2021 102   Furman L 72-80 OT 66%     1 - 1 -5.6 -10.0 +5.4
  Nov 15, 2021 148   Navy W 77-60 78%     2 - 1 +15.3 +5.9 +9.6
  Nov 20, 2021 199   Detroit Mercy W 73-67 84%     3 - 1 +1.9 -1.8 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2021 48   Mississippi St. W 72-58 37%     4 - 1 +23.9 -0.7 +24.1
  Nov 27, 2021 70   Maryland W 63-55 46%     5 - 1 +15.7 -5.8 +21.5
  Dec 01, 2021 20   @ Michigan St. L 64-73 19%     5 - 2 +6.8 -1.8 +8.8
  Dec 04, 2021 97   @ North Carolina St. W 73-68 43%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +13.3 +5.0 +8.5
  Dec 10, 2021 94   DePaul L 55-62 62%     6 - 3 -3.5 -19.9 +16.7
  Dec 14, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 86-60 94%     7 - 3 +15.2 +1.9 +11.9
  Dec 18, 2021 112   @ Western Kentucky L 72-82 50%     7 - 4 -3.3 +0.5 -3.7
  Dec 29, 2021 49   Wake Forest W 73-69 47%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +11.4 +6.2 +5.3
  Jan 02, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 67-64 55%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +8.3 +3.9 +4.6
  Jan 05, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 75-72 76%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +2.0 +5.9 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 70-79 27%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +3.9 +5.9 -2.2
  Jan 12, 2022 97   North Carolina St. L 63-79 63%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -12.7 -4.2 -10.3
  Jan 15, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh L 53-65 60%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -7.9 -15.0 +6.7
  Jan 19, 2022 138   Boston College W 67-54 76%     11 - 7 5 - 3 +12.0 -6.5 +18.6
  Jan 22, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 24, 2022 67   @ Virginia L 57-61 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 10   Duke L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 01, 2022 34   North Carolina L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 61   @ Syracuse L 72-76 33%    
  Feb 09, 2022 65   @ Notre Dame L 67-71 33%    
  Feb 16, 2022 58   Miami (FL) W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 68   Clemson W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 21, 2022 34   @ North Carolina L 71-78 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 68-74 29%    
  Mar 01, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech L 62-69 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 67   Virginia W 60-59 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 3.1 0.2 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.8 3.7 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 7.1 1.0 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 7.8 3.3 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 6.1 6.2 0.5 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.7 1.4 0.0 11.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.5 12th
13th 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.7 3.6 9.2 15.5 20.1 19.2 15.1 9.6 4.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-5 71.4% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1
14-6 33.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 96.4% 8.0% 88.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.1%
14-6 1.8% 84.6% 6.4% 78.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 83.6%
13-7 4.7% 57.2% 5.4% 51.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 54.8%
12-8 9.6% 29.2% 3.3% 25.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 6.8 26.7%
11-9 15.1% 10.3% 2.0% 8.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 8.4%
10-10 19.2% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 18.7 1.6%
9-11 20.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.8 0.1%
8-12 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5
7-13 9.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
6-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 1.6% 8.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 90.0 8.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%