Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#67
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#83
Pace53.5#358
Improvement+0.0#180

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#95
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#77
Layup/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#260
Freethrows+0.3#151
Improvement+1.0#114

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#57
First Shot+7.2#13
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#330
Layups/Dunks+4.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#261
Freethrows+3.2#12
Improvement-1.0#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 26.6% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.6% 23.2% 10.8%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 81.9% 91.3% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 86.3% 62.9%
Conference Champion 3.6% 5.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.5% 5.6% 3.6%
First Round16.8% 23.4% 10.9%
Second Round6.7% 9.4% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 48 - 11
Quad 34 - 312 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 148   Navy L 58-66 82%     0 - 1 -9.7 -8.8 -1.6
  Nov 12, 2021 285   Radford W 73-52 94%     1 - 1 +11.3 +7.9 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2021 9   @ Houston L 47-67 13%     1 - 2 +0.0 -7.6 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 68-52 95%     2 - 2 +5.3 -0.9 +7.9
  Nov 22, 2021 201   Georgia W 65-55 82%     3 - 2 +8.4 -4.5 +13.9
  Nov 23, 2021 44   Providence W 58-40 41%     4 - 2 +28.3 +6.0 +26.9
  Nov 26, 2021 294   Lehigh W 61-43 95%     5 - 2 +7.7 -7.6 +17.9
  Nov 29, 2021 21   Iowa L 74-75 40%     5 - 3 +9.7 +20.1 -10.6
  Dec 03, 2021 139   Pittsburgh W 57-56 80%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +0.0 +2.9 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2021 180   @ James Madison L 49-52 72%     6 - 4 -1.2 -15.0 +13.3
  Dec 18, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-49 97%     7 - 4 +18.3 +9.2 +12.3
  Dec 22, 2021 68   Clemson L 50-67 60%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -11.5 -14.3 +0.6
  Jan 01, 2022 61   @ Syracuse W 74-69 39%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +15.9 +10.3 +6.2
  Jan 04, 2022 68   @ Clemson W 75-65 40%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +20.5 +18.5 +3.6
  Jan 08, 2022 34   @ North Carolina L 58-74 28%     9 - 6 3 - 2 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2
  Jan 12, 2022 32   Virginia Tech W 54-52 46%     10 - 6 4 - 2 +11.1 -1.9 +13.4
  Jan 15, 2022 49   Wake Forest L 55-63 53%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -0.6 -3.5 +1.3
  Jan 19, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh W 66-61 65%     11 - 7 5 - 3 +9.1 +9.7 +0.4
  Jan 22, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 24, 2022 86   Louisville W 61-57 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 65   @ Notre Dame L 59-62 38%    
  Feb 01, 2022 138   Boston College W 64-55 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 58   Miami (FL) W 65-63 59%    
  Feb 07, 2022 10   @ Duke L 57-69 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 62-54 78%    
  Feb 14, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech L 55-61 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) L 62-65 37%    
  Feb 23, 2022 10   Duke L 59-66 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 42   Florida St. W 61-60 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 86   @ Louisville L 59-60 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.4 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.8 2.6 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 4.7 5.5 0.6 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 7.7 2.2 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 6.3 5.2 0.3 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 7.4 1.4 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.8 3.3 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.4 3.1 3.5 0.5 7.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.8 8.0 14.3 19.9 20.2 16.7 10.5 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-5 75.6% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.2
14-6 32.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 97.7% 11.7% 85.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
15-5 1.7% 93.7% 12.3% 81.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.8%
14-6 4.7% 81.9% 12.1% 69.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 79.4%
13-7 10.5% 54.6% 8.0% 46.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 0.3 4.8 50.6%
12-8 16.7% 29.5% 3.9% 25.6% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.0 11.7 26.6%
11-9 20.2% 10.4% 2.7% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 18.1 7.9%
10-10 19.9% 3.5% 1.8% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 19.2 1.7%
9-11 14.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.2 0.1%
8-12 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.4% 3.4% 16.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.2 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 80.6 16.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%