Duke
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#13
Pace71.5#100
Improvement-3.2#305

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#8
First Shot+8.4#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#54
Layup/Dunks+8.0#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#169
Freethrows+1.3#88
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#23
First Shot+8.0#10
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#278
Layups/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#21
Freethrows+3.3#11
Improvement-2.6#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 2.9% 0.5%
#1 Seed 13.3% 14.8% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 30.6% 33.3% 13.7%
Top 4 Seed 69.6% 72.7% 50.1%
Top 6 Seed 90.9% 92.6% 79.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 99.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.7% 98.8%
Average Seed 3.7 3.5 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 96.8%
Conference Champion 50.3% 53.8% 28.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
First Round99.7% 99.8% 99.0%
Second Round85.6% 86.6% 79.3%
Sweet Sixteen56.2% 57.8% 46.2%
Elite Eight30.6% 31.8% 22.6%
Final Four15.8% 16.7% 10.5%
Championship Game7.6% 8.1% 4.5%
National Champion3.7% 4.1% 1.7%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 4
Quad 27 - 213 - 6
Quad 35 - 018 - 6
Quad 48 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 3   Kentucky W 79-71 42%     1 - 0 +27.2 +10.8 +16.1
  Nov 12, 2021 266   Army W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +18.0 -2.6 +18.0
  Nov 13, 2021 225   Campbell W 67-56 97%     3 - 0 +5.5 +2.3 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 223   Gardner-Webb W 92-52 97%     4 - 0 +34.6 +15.0 +18.1
  Nov 19, 2021 307   Lafayette W 88-55 99%     5 - 0 +22.1 +6.4 +14.8
  Nov 22, 2021 283   The Citadel W 107-81 98%     6 - 0 +16.5 +24.5 -8.8
  Nov 26, 2021 1   Gonzaga W 84-81 30%     7 - 0 +25.6 +9.3 +16.0
  Nov 30, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 66-71 56%     7 - 1 +10.6 -1.1 +11.7
  Dec 14, 2021 346   South Carolina St. W 103-62 99%     8 - 1 +25.1 +12.1 +8.3
  Dec 16, 2021 185   Appalachian St. W 92-67 96%     9 - 1 +21.6 +22.6 +0.2
  Dec 18, 2021 232   Elon W 87-56 97%     10 - 1 +24.7 +8.8 +15.4
  Dec 22, 2021 32   Virginia Tech W 76-65 78%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +20.1 +15.0 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 69-57 93%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +12.2 +1.1 +11.7
  Jan 08, 2022 58   Miami (FL) L 74-76 85%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +4.1 -0.1 +4.2
  Jan 12, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest W 76-64 67%     13 - 2 3 - 1 +24.4 +10.6 +13.9
  Jan 15, 2022 97   North Carolina St. W 88-73 90%     14 - 2 4 - 1 +18.3 +15.9 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 78-79 OT 66%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +11.9 +10.9 +0.9
  Jan 22, 2022 61   Syracuse W 84-73 86%    
  Jan 25, 2022 68   Clemson W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 86   @ Louisville W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 31, 2022 65   @ Notre Dame W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 34   @ North Carolina W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 07, 2022 67   Virginia W 69-57 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 138   @ Boston College W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 15, 2022 49   Wake Forest W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 42   Florida St. W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 67   @ Virginia W 66-59 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 61   @ Syracuse W 82-76 69%    
  Mar 01, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh W 75-62 87%    
  Mar 05, 2022 34   North Carolina W 83-75 79%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.3 17.5 16.5 6.8 50.3 1st
2nd 0.3 4.9 9.8 5.4 1.0 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.0 3.3 0.4 11.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 8.8 15.5 21.8 23.3 17.5 6.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 98.7% 6.8    6.6 0.3
16-4 94.4% 16.5    13.8 2.7 0.1
15-5 75.2% 17.5    9.7 6.4 1.4 0.1
14-6 38.0% 8.3    2.1 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.7% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.3% 50.3 32.1 12.9 4.0 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 6.9% 100.0% 58.7% 41.3% 1.4 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.5% 100.0% 51.3% 48.7% 2.0 5.9 7.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 23.3% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 2.9 2.5 6.4 8.0 5.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 21.8% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 3.9 0.3 1.8 6.0 8.0 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.5% 100.0% 35.8% 64.1% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.2 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.8% 99.7% 27.5% 72.2% 6.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 4.0% 99.1% 21.6% 77.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9%
10-10 1.6% 96.4% 16.1% 80.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 95.7%
9-11 0.6% 86.6% 10.5% 76.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.0%
8-12 0.1% 54.1% 4.9% 49.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.7%
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 42.6% 57.2% 3.7 13.3 17.3 19.7 19.3 13.3 8.0 4.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 1.3 75.5 23.0 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.5 58.3 34.6 6.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.6 50.8 38.6 10.6