North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#97
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#123
Pace67.5#217
Improvement+1.5#107

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#40
First Shot+4.6#47
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#96
Layup/Dunks+1.3#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#119
Freethrows+1.8#55
Improvement+0.8#127

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#325
Layups/Dunks-3.4#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#61
Freethrows+1.1#99
Improvement+0.7#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.9
.500 or above 29.7% 40.5% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 18.1% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 5.7% 17.5%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 76 - 14
Quad 34 - 310 - 17
Quad 45 - 115 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 331   Bucknell W 88-70 95%     1 - 0 +4.3 +2.7 +0.8
  Nov 13, 2021 129   Colgate W 77-74 71%     2 - 0 +3.0 +10.3 -7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 343   Central Connecticut St. W 79-65 95%     3 - 0 +1.1 +0.5 +0.7
  Nov 17, 2021 46   Oklahoma St. L 68-74 34%     3 - 1 +4.0 +0.9 +3.4
  Nov 21, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 65-57 83%     4 - 1 +3.6 -6.8 +10.6
  Nov 27, 2021 82   Louisiana Tech W 90-81 55%     5 - 1 +13.6 +20.1 -6.5
  Dec 01, 2021 140   Nebraska W 104-100 4OT 74%     6 - 1 +3.0 -3.7 +5.4
  Dec 04, 2021 86   Louisville L 68-73 57%     6 - 2 0 - 1 -0.9 +2.5 -3.6
  Dec 09, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 65-48 97%     7 - 2 +0.5 -7.6 +9.6
  Dec 12, 2021 4   Purdue L 72-82 OT 11%     7 - 3 +9.2 +0.0 +9.9
  Dec 17, 2021 99   Richmond L 74-83 50%     7 - 4 -3.3 +2.4 -5.6
  Dec 21, 2021 206   Wright St. L 70-84 83%     7 - 5 -18.5 -9.2 -9.0
  Dec 29, 2021 58   @ Miami (FL) L 83-91 30%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +3.1 +11.2 -8.1
  Jan 01, 2022 42   Florida St. L 81-83 42%     7 - 7 0 - 3 +5.8 +11.4 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech W 68-63 21%     8 - 7 1 - 3 +19.1 +14.6 +5.3
  Jan 08, 2022 68   Clemson L 65-70 51%     8 - 8 1 - 4 +0.5 -8.1 +8.8
  Jan 12, 2022 86   @ Louisville W 79-63 37%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +25.1 +21.3 +5.6
  Jan 15, 2022 10   @ Duke L 73-88 10%     9 - 9 2 - 5 +4.6 +9.8 -5.6
  Jan 19, 2022 32   Virginia Tech L 59-62 37%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +6.1 +1.7 +3.8
  Jan 22, 2022 67   Virginia W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 26, 2022 65   @ Notre Dame L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 34   @ North Carolina L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 02, 2022 61   Syracuse L 77-78 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 09, 2022 49   Wake Forest L 73-75 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh W 69-67 54%    
  Feb 15, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 23, 2022 138   Boston College W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 34   North Carolina L 77-80 40%    
  Mar 02, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 05, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 68-75 24%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 2.8 0.2 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 5.1 1.3 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.6 4.3 0.3 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.4 7.7 1.5 0.0 16.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 6.8 9.2 3.1 0.1 20.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.7 7.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.9 0.2 9.3 14th
15th 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 15th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.6 11.0 17.2 20.1 18.3 13.9 7.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 11.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 48.4% 14.3% 34.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.7%
12-8 0.9% 33.5% 7.0% 26.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 28.5%
11-9 3.3% 11.6% 2.4% 9.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 9.4%
10-10 7.6% 3.5% 1.9% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 1.6%
9-11 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.1%
8-12 18.3% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.1
7-13 20.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0
6-14 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 17.1
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 5.6% 5.6
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%