Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#61
Pace64.9#294
Improvement+1.7#95

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#37
First Shot+5.6#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#144
Layup/Dunks-0.7#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#20
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement+1.3#93

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#34
Layups/Dunks-1.2#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
Freethrows+0.9#111
Improvement+0.4#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 31.1% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.6% 27.5% 13.2%
Average Seed 9.8 9.5 10.1
.500 or above 88.7% 94.9% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 92.5% 77.1%
Conference Champion 9.1% 14.4% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.8% 6.9% 4.9%
First Round19.7% 27.4% 13.5%
Second Round8.1% 11.7% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 68-52 95%     1 - 0 +5.6 +1.3 +6.6
  Nov 16, 2021 275   High Point W 70-61 94%     2 - 0 +0.0 -4.8 +5.0
  Nov 22, 2021 38   St. Mary's L 59-62 40%     2 - 1 +7.7 +1.7 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2021 60   Texas A&M L 67-73 49%     2 - 2 +2.5 -2.5 +5.2
  Nov 29, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 72-82 15%     2 - 3 +9.2 +12.1 -3.5
  Dec 03, 2021 138   @ Boston College L 57-73 65%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -11.9 -8.4 -5.1
  Dec 11, 2021 3   Kentucky W 66-62 21%     3 - 4 +20.7 +8.5 +12.7
  Dec 18, 2021 27   Indiana L 56-64 33%     3 - 5 +4.6 -7.3 +11.7
  Dec 20, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 85-52 96%     4 - 5 +21.2 +11.0 +12.8
  Dec 22, 2021 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-73 92%     5 - 5 +2.7 +9.9 -6.9
  Dec 28, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 68-67 65%     6 - 5 1 - 1 +5.1 +5.9 -0.8
  Jan 05, 2022 34   North Carolina W 78-73 47%     7 - 5 2 - 1 +14.0 +5.3 +8.5
  Jan 08, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 72-68 OT 61%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +9.3 -1.6 +10.6
  Jan 12, 2022 68   Clemson W 72-56 60%     9 - 5 4 - 1 +21.5 +8.7 +14.5
  Jan 15, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech L 73-79 28%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +8.1 +17.6 -10.4
  Jan 17, 2022 248   @ Howard W 71-68 83%     10 - 6 +0.9 -2.3 +3.3
  Jan 22, 2022 86   @ Louisville L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 97   North Carolina St. W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 67   Virginia W 62-59 62%    
  Jan 31, 2022 10   Duke L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 05, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 09, 2022 86   Louisville W 71-67 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 68   @ Clemson L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 16, 2022 138   Boston College W 73-64 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 70-74 33%    
  Feb 23, 2022 61   Syracuse W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 72-64 78%    
  Mar 02, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 67-72 32%    
  Mar 05, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 70-61 81%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 5.2 1.8 0.2 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 6.3 2.5 0.2 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.9 4.0 0.4 12.5 4th
5th 0.2 4.5 6.1 1.0 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 6.6 2.3 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 4.3 0.3 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 5.1 1.0 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 2.3 0.3 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.6 9.0 13.7 17.7 18.5 15.2 10.7 5.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 90.1% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 63.1% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 23.7% 2.5    0.4 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 3.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 2.0% 98.0% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.5% 98.9% 12.7% 86.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
16-4 2.1% 94.7% 11.9% 82.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.0%
15-5 5.5% 84.1% 9.6% 74.5% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.9 82.4%
14-6 10.7% 58.7% 8.0% 50.6% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.4 55.0%
13-7 15.2% 34.1% 6.4% 27.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 1.0 0.0 10.0 29.6%
12-8 18.5% 15.0% 3.4% 11.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.0 15.7 11.9%
11-9 17.7% 5.3% 2.2% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 16.7 3.2%
10-10 13.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.4 0.6%
9-11 9.0% 0.8% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
8-12 4.6% 0.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 4.6
7-13 1.7% 1.7
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.8% 4.0% 18.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 3.6 4.6 6.0 3.1 0.2 77.2 19.6%