North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#34
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#49
Pace76.5#27
Improvement-1.0#218

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#21
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#28
Layup/Dunks+4.2#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
Freethrows+1.5#76
Improvement-3.8#347

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#80
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#19
Layups/Dunks+0.0#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#222
Freethrows+3.3#10
Improvement+2.8#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 5.7% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 11.3% 18.2% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.8% 73.8% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.8% 69.7% 43.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.4% 88.4%
Conference Champion 17.3% 26.4% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.6% 7.3% 9.6%
First Round56.1% 70.5% 44.5%
Second Round31.0% 40.4% 23.5%
Sweet Sixteen10.4% 14.0% 7.4%
Elite Eight4.1% 5.7% 2.8%
Final Four1.5% 2.1% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 28 - 11
Quad 38 - 116 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 83-67 95%     1 - 0 +8.4 +3.0 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2021 181   Brown W 94-87 91%     2 - 0 +3.7 +20.2 -16.5
  Nov 16, 2021 203   @ College of Charleston W 94-83 84%     3 - 0 +11.7 +5.7 +4.1
  Nov 20, 2021 4   Purdue L 84-93 23%     3 - 1 +10.2 +9.6 +1.4
  Nov 21, 2021 15   Tennessee L 72-89 38%     3 - 2 -2.4 +5.3 -6.9
  Nov 23, 2021 249   UNC Asheville W 72-53 95%     4 - 2 +11.8 -1.6 +14.5
  Dec 01, 2021 24   Michigan W 72-51 55%     5 - 2 +31.3 +8.9 +24.1
  Dec 05, 2021 125   @ Georgia Tech W 79-62 73%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +22.3 +15.6 +7.7
  Dec 11, 2021 232   Elon W 80-63 94%     7 - 2 +10.7 -3.7 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2021 102   Furman W 74-61 81%     8 - 2 +15.4 +7.8 +8.9
  Dec 18, 2021 3   Kentucky L 69-98 23%     8 - 3 -9.8 +2.1 -11.0
  Dec 21, 2021 185   Appalachian St. W 70-50 91%     9 - 3 +16.6 -1.7 +19.0
  Jan 02, 2022 138   @ Boston College W 91-65 76%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +30.1 +17.4 +11.9
  Jan 05, 2022 65   @ Notre Dame L 73-78 53%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +5.7 +1.6 +4.2
  Jan 08, 2022 67   Virginia W 74-58 72%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +21.5 +15.1 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 88-65 85%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +23.2 +12.8 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) L 57-85 52%     12 - 5 4 - 2 -16.9 -13.4 -3.8
  Jan 22, 2022 49   @ Wake Forest L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 24, 2022 32   Virginia Tech W 73-71 61%    
  Jan 26, 2022 138   Boston College W 81-69 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 97   North Carolina St. W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 01, 2022 86   @ Louisville W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 10   Duke L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 08, 2022 68   @ Clemson W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 42   Florida St. W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 16, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 32   @ Virginia Tech L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 21, 2022 86   Louisville W 78-71 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 28, 2022 61   Syracuse W 85-79 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 10   @ Duke L 75-83 21%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.6 4.2 1.2 0.2 17.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.6 7.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 8.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.3 4.5 0.5 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.9 5.9 0.9 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.5 2.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 3.2 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.5 0.8 5.4 8th
9th 0.3 1.9 1.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.9 9.4 14.5 18.8 18.9 15.0 9.7 4.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 98.1% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-4 92.9% 4.2    3.2 1.0 0.1
15-5 67.7% 6.6    3.1 2.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 27.6% 4.1    0.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
13-7 4.6% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 8.5 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 3.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.5% 99.6% 25.2% 74.4% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 9.7% 97.0% 20.4% 76.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.2%
14-6 15.0% 91.2% 16.8% 74.5% 8.2 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.3 89.5%
13-7 18.9% 77.2% 12.5% 64.7% 9.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.3 73.9%
12-8 18.8% 54.3% 7.9% 46.4% 10.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 50.4%
11-9 14.5% 30.8% 5.2% 25.6% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.1 10.0 27.0%
10-10 9.4% 12.6% 2.9% 9.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.2 10.1%
9-11 4.9% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8 1.3%
8-12 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.3%
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 59.8% 11.1% 48.7% 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.3 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 4.1 0.3 0.0 40.2 54.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 36.4 36.4 18.2 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 45.0 40.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 29.0 38.7 22.6 9.7