Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#32
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#80
Pace61.9#334
Improvement-2.8#292

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#38
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#261
Layup/Dunks+2.6#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#16
Freethrows-1.1#270
Improvement-0.5#209

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#40
First Shot+3.9#63
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#43
Layups/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#109
Freethrows+2.4#32
Improvement-2.3#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 6.3% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.0% 51.1% 31.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.9% 44.9% 26.3%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.8
.500 or above 97.4% 98.7% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 86.7% 66.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four8.6% 9.0% 7.3%
First Round42.4% 47.5% 27.6%
Second Round23.1% 26.3% 13.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 8.9% 4.5%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.5% 1.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 27 - 510 - 11
Quad 36 - 215 - 13
Quad 45 - 021 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 349   Maine W 82-47 99%     1 - 0 +18.1 +5.7 +13.5
  Nov 12, 2021 148   @ Navy W 77-57 78%     2 - 0 +23.4 +15.5 +9.9
  Nov 15, 2021 285   Radford W 65-39 96%     3 - 0 +16.3 -10.0 +27.0
  Nov 18, 2021 301   St. Francis (PA) W 85-55 97%     4 - 0 +19.4 +10.6 +9.9
  Nov 21, 2021 289   Merrimack W 72-43 97%     5 - 0 +19.0 +10.0 +14.1
  Nov 24, 2021 41   Memphis L 61-69 54%     5 - 1 +2.6 -6.5 +9.1
  Nov 26, 2021 19   Xavier L 58-59 42%     5 - 2 +12.8 -0.5 +13.1
  Dec 01, 2021 70   @ Maryland W 62-58 55%     6 - 2 +14.2 -0.2 +14.8
  Dec 04, 2021 49   Wake Forest L 61-80 66%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -11.6 +1.1 -15.7
  Dec 08, 2021 229   Cornell W 93-60 94%     7 - 3 +27.1 +15.1 +11.8
  Dec 12, 2021 72   @ Dayton L 57-62 56%     7 - 4 +5.0 -6.1 +10.8
  Dec 17, 2021 80   St. Bonaventure W 86-49 67%     8 - 4 +44.2 +18.8 +26.7
  Dec 22, 2021 10   @ Duke L 65-76 22%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +8.6 +6.5 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2022 97   North Carolina St. L 63-68 79%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -1.7 +0.5 -3.1
  Jan 12, 2022 67   @ Virginia L 52-54 54%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +8.5 -2.7 +10.8
  Jan 15, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 79-73 72%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +11.6 +18.3 -5.8
  Jan 19, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. W 62-59 63%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +11.3 +2.0 +9.8
  Jan 22, 2022 138   @ Boston College W 69-61 74%    
  Jan 24, 2022 34   @ North Carolina L 71-73 39%    
  Jan 26, 2022 58   Miami (FL) W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 66-67 43%    
  Feb 02, 2022 125   Georgia Tech W 70-59 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 139   @ Pittsburgh W 66-58 74%    
  Feb 07, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 69-56 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 61   Syracuse W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 14, 2022 67   Virginia W 61-55 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 34   North Carolina W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 01, 2022 86   Louisville W 69-62 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 68   @ Clemson W 67-66 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.5 0.7 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 6.3 2.1 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.1 3.8 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 6.1 1.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 7.3 2.4 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.5 4.9 4.1 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 5.4 1.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.0 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.4 0.2 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.5 9.8 14.4 18.1 19.3 15.4 9.5 4.1 0.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 92.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2
15-5 61.6% 2.5    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 24.1% 2.3    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.8% 99.2% 29.9% 69.3% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9%
15-5 4.1% 98.0% 22.2% 75.9% 6.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
14-6 9.5% 92.3% 20.5% 71.8% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.7 90.3%
13-7 15.4% 77.9% 15.0% 62.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 74.0%
12-8 19.3% 56.5% 10.6% 45.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.6 2.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.4 51.3%
11-9 18.1% 35.2% 7.3% 28.0% 10.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 1.3 0.0 11.7 30.2%
10-10 14.4% 16.8% 5.4% 11.4% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 12.0 12.1%
9-11 9.8% 5.9% 3.8% 2.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.2 2.2%
8-12 5.5% 3.2% 2.9% 0.3% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.3%
7-13 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 46.0% 10.1% 35.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.4 6.3 7.2 8.6 10.5 3.9 0.2 0.0 54.0 39.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 5.2 38.3 44.3 11.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 19.4 26.9 36.6 15.1 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 96.7% 5.1 2.2 6.5 12.0 37.0 35.9 3.3