Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#49
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#33
Pace72.4#81
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#50
First Shot+5.2#41
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks+6.5#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#226
Freethrows+1.0#97
Improvement-1.6#275

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#58
First Shot+3.2#75
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#52
Layups/Dunks+0.0#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#116
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement+1.8#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 9.5% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.9% 67.7% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.8% 64.8% 42.9%
Average Seed 9.1 8.8 9.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 96.4% 85.9%
Conference Champion 9.8% 14.6% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.8% 9.8% 12.0%
First Round52.3% 62.4% 39.6%
Second Round23.9% 29.6% 16.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 7.8% 4.3%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.7% 1.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 26 - 39 - 9
Quad 36 - 115 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 340   William & Mary W 77-59 98%     1 - 0 +3.3 -4.4 +7.1
  Nov 12, 2021 312   Western Carolina W 87-75 96%     2 - 0 +0.8 -0.2 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2021 351   Charleston Southern W 95-59 99%     3 - 0 +18.5 +2.5 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 87-63 95%     4 - 0 +15.4 +9.5 +5.6
  Nov 23, 2021 214   Kennesaw St. W 92-61 91%     5 - 0 +26.1 +12.1 +12.4
  Nov 26, 2021 124   Oregon St. W 80-77 OT 75%     6 - 0 +5.9 -2.1 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2021 13   LSU L 61-75 26%     6 - 1 +2.6 -2.0 +5.4
  Nov 30, 2021 59   Northwestern W 77-73 OT 65%     7 - 1 +10.0 +1.7 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2021 32   @ Virginia Tech W 80-61 34%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +33.1 +26.5 +9.5
  Dec 11, 2021 311   South Carolina Upstate W 79-53 96%     9 - 1 +14.9 -7.3 +20.3
  Dec 14, 2021 197   VMI W 77-70 90%     10 - 1 +3.0 -3.6 +6.4
  Dec 17, 2021 195   Charlotte W 82-79 85%     11 - 1 +1.5 +7.4 -5.9
  Dec 29, 2021 86   @ Louisville L 69-73 53%     11 - 2 1 - 1 +5.1 +4.9 +0.0
  Jan 01, 2022 58   @ Miami (FL) L 84-92 45%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +3.1 +11.5 -8.3
  Jan 04, 2022 42   Florida St. W 76-54 58%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +29.8 +0.1 +27.5
  Jan 08, 2022 61   Syracuse W 77-74 OT 65%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +8.9 -3.5 +12.2
  Jan 12, 2022 10   Duke L 64-76 33%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +2.5 -2.1 +4.4
  Jan 15, 2022 67   @ Virginia W 63-55 47%     14 - 4 4 - 3 +18.5 +8.6 +11.5
  Jan 19, 2022 125   @ Georgia Tech W 80-64 67%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +21.3 +6.3 +13.9
  Jan 22, 2022 34   North Carolina W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 24, 2022 138   Boston College W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 29, 2022 61   @ Syracuse L 77-78 44%    
  Feb 02, 2022 139   Pittsburgh W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 05, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 97   @ North Carolina St. W 75-73 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 58   Miami (FL) W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 15, 2022 10   @ Duke L 70-80 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 65   Notre Dame W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 68   @ Clemson L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 86   Louisville W 74-68 71%    
  Mar 02, 2022 97   North Carolina St. W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.9 1.6 0.3 9.8 1st
2nd 0.5 4.6 6.4 1.9 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 8.1 2.9 0.2 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.0 5.0 0.5 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 4.7 7.2 1.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.3 2.6 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 4.1 3.9 0.4 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.7 11.3 18.0 21.9 19.4 13.1 6.0 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 93.8% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 65.5% 3.9    1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0
14-6 25.2% 3.3    0.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 3.7 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 99.8% 21.8% 77.9% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 6.0% 97.8% 14.2% 83.6% 6.8 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.5%
14-6 13.1% 93.3% 12.0% 81.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.2 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.9 92.4%
13-7 19.4% 81.1% 9.3% 71.7% 9.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.9 3.9 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 3.7 79.1%
12-8 21.9% 60.5% 5.6% 54.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.5 4.7 1.5 0.0 8.7 58.2%
11-9 18.0% 36.0% 3.3% 32.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.9 1.6 0.1 11.5 33.8%
10-10 11.3% 17.8% 2.1% 15.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.0 9.3 16.0%
9-11 5.7% 5.4% 1.5% 3.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4 4.0%
8-12 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.9% 6.8% 51.1% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.4 10.3 11.0 11.7 4.6 0.2 42.1 54.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 15.6 34.4 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.4 11.1 51.9 18.5 18.5