Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Purdue 100.0%   2   15 - 2 4 - 2 25 - 5 14 - 5 +19.2      +13.6 2 +5.6 46 67.0 230 +19.4 5 +14.9 6
11 Illinois 99.0%   3   13 - 4 6 - 1 22 - 8 15 - 5 +16.7      +10.2 7 +6.5 30 69.2 165 +14.3 28 +20.2 2
20 Michigan St. 96.3%   5   14 - 3 5 - 1 21 - 9 12 - 7 +13.3      +6.1 35 +7.2 21 70.7 122 +16.6 12 +15.0 5
21 Iowa 77.3%   7   13 - 5 3 - 4 21 - 10 11 - 9 +13.2      +10.7 6 +2.5 100 74.8 54 +12.1 42 +10.4 9
22 Ohio St. 93.9%   5   12 - 4 5 - 2 20 - 9 13 - 7 +13.1      +8.7 18 +4.4 66 66.3 257 +15.0 23 +15.3 4
24 Michigan 46.9%   12   8 - 7 2 - 3 15 - 13 9 - 9 +12.8      +7.8 22 +5.0 56 65.4 278 +7.5 78 +5.5 10
25 Wisconsin 99.8%   4   15 - 2 6 - 1 23 - 7 14 - 6 +12.8      +6.8 29 +6.0 36 65.2 286 +21.5 3 +23.5 1
27 Indiana 72.4%   8   13 - 4 4 - 3 20 - 10 11 - 9 +12.6      +4.5 57 +8.1 12 68.4 185 +11.5 45 +10.7 7
56 Penn St. 16.7%   8 - 7 3 - 4 13 - 14 8 - 11 +8.8      +4.0 72 +4.8 60 60.3 345 +7.5 77 +10.5 8
59 Northwestern 8.4%   8 - 7 2 - 5 13 - 15 7 - 13 +8.5      +5.6 41 +3.0 91 69.7 149 +5.0 102 +5.1 11
64 Rutgers 24.9%   11 - 6 5 - 2 16 - 14 10 - 10 +8.2      +0.9 155 +7.3 18 66.7 242 +9.2 62 +17.1 3
70 Maryland 6.9%   9 - 9 1 - 6 14 - 17 6 - 14 +7.7      +3.7 78 +4.0 73 67.1 227 +5.2 99 +1.0 13
91 Minnesota 13.6%   10 - 5 1 - 5 15 - 13 6 - 13 +6.3      +3.2 89 +3.1 88 66.3 253 +11.0 50 +4.9 12
140 Nebraska 0.0%   6 - 13 0 - 8 9 - 22 3 - 17 +1.5      +1.2 142 +0.3 161 77.4 19 -2.3 208 -2.8 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 2.7 29.7 26.1 18.2 11.3 7.0 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 2.2 47.8 21.4 13.1 8.2 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.9 8.8 10.3 12.4 14.4 14.8 12.9 10.7 7.7 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
Iowa 6.0 2.1 4.7 8.7 12.7 15.8 16.2 14.2 10.8 7.2 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 4.0 12.0 15.7 18.2 17.8 13.4 9.7 6.1 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Michigan 8.4 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.6 6.1 8.9 11.3 15.2 17.6 15.1 11.3 5.9 1.8 0.1
Wisconsin 2.8 28.5 23.3 18.4 12.6 7.7 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 5.9 3.3 6.1 8.9 12.2 15.0 15.0 13.9 11.1 7.0 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
Penn St. 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.6 6.3 9.0 12.6 16.8 18.7 15.5 10.0 4.4 0.4
Northwestern 10.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.4 9.8 14.4 18.8 19.3 14.7 8.5 1.4
Rutgers 6.9 1.4 2.9 5.3 7.9 10.9 13.9 15.8 16.1 12.0 7.5 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.0
Maryland 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.9 11.5 17.9 25.8 24.1 5.3
Minnesota 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.5 6.5 10.9 16.1 23.3 29.1 7.2
Nebraska 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 6.4 18.7 71.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 5.9 11.4 17.8 22.5 21.1 13.4 4.5
Illinois 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.9 14.0 18.4 20.2 17.5 10.8 4.4 0.9
Michigan St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.1 8.4 13.2 17.6 18.2 15.9 11.2 6.5 2.4 0.6 0.1
Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.8 12.6 17.9 19.9 18.3 12.2 6.0 1.7 0.3
Ohio St. 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 8.4 14.3 18.2 19.6 16.9 10.4 4.9 1.4 0.2
Michigan 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 8.2 13.7 18.5 19.3 16.4 10.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 0.1
Wisconsin 14 - 6 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.5 7.1 13.0 18.2 20.2 17.3 11.9 5.5 1.7 0.2
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.9 12.6 16.8 19.5 17.4 12.2 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.1
Penn St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.9 6.2 12.6 18.2 20.3 17.7 12.4 6.7 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.2 1.4 4.5 10.2 17.0 19.7 18.8 14.4 8.4 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0
Rutgers 10 - 10 0.4 2.2 6.4 12.3 17.6 19.7 17.8 12.1 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.4 2.8 7.3 13.9 18.4 19.9 16.2 11.1 5.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 0.8 3.7 9.5 15.0 19.2 18.8 15.2 9.7 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 3 - 17 5.9 18.3 25.5 23.4 15.0 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 29.7% 15.1 10.4 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Illinois 47.8% 31.2 12.2 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Michigan St. 8.8% 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
Iowa 2.1% 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1
Ohio St. 12.0% 5.2 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Michigan 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 28.5% 16.0 8.8 2.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Indiana 3.3% 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern
Rutgers 1.4% 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Maryland
Minnesota
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2   41.4 30.7 16.5 7.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 99.0% 21.0% 78.0% 3   10.6 17.0 22.7 18.8 13.2 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 98.7%
Michigan St. 96.3% 7.1% 89.3% 5   2.9 7.8 15.1 17.0 17.0 14.2 9.2 5.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.7 96.1%
Iowa 77.3% 6.2% 71.0% 7   0.2 0.7 2.8 5.6 8.7 11.7 12.4 11.2 8.3 7.0 6.0 2.5 0.1 0.0 22.7 75.7%
Ohio St. 93.9% 8.3% 85.7% 5   1.1 3.4 8.6 13.0 16.4 16.5 13.6 9.3 5.5 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 6.1 93.4%
Michigan 46.9% 4.8% 42.1% 12   0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 5.7 6.0 5.8 4.8 5.0 5.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 53.1 44.2%
Wisconsin 99.8% 8.1% 91.6% 4   5.2 14.2 23.2 21.8 17.1 10.3 4.7 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.8%
Indiana 72.4% 5.7% 66.7% 8   0.2 0.5 2.1 4.2 7.5 9.9 11.9 11.7 8.6 7.3 6.0 2.4 0.1 27.6 70.7%
Penn St. 16.7% 1.0% 15.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.3 15.9%
Northwestern 8.4% 0.9% 7.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.6 7.6%
Rutgers 24.9% 1.0% 23.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.3 2.4 0.1 0.0 75.1 24.2%
Maryland 6.9% 0.5% 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1 6.4%
Minnesota 13.6% 0.2% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 86.4 13.4%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.4% 73.1% 48.0% 28.4% 16.2% 9.0%
Illinois 99.0% 0.4% 98.9% 85.0% 55.0% 28.9% 14.3% 6.8% 2.9%
Michigan St. 96.3% 1.7% 95.4% 67.7% 33.3% 13.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Iowa 77.3% 5.6% 74.9% 47.1% 20.1% 8.5% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Ohio St. 93.9% 2.3% 93.0% 62.2% 28.0% 11.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Michigan 46.9% 7.7% 44.1% 27.6% 11.8% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Wisconsin 99.8% 0.2% 99.7% 74.7% 36.7% 13.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Indiana 72.4% 5.4% 70.0% 42.4% 17.0% 7.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Penn St. 16.7% 4.3% 14.6% 6.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 8.4% 2.4% 7.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 24.9% 4.8% 22.3% 9.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 6.9% 2.2% 5.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 13.6% 4.0% 11.2% 4.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.6 0.0 1.0 10.8 36.0 37.3 13.0 1.8 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.4 0.0 1.7 14.4 40.0 33.6 9.3 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.8 5.4 18.3 32.2 29.0 12.1 2.1 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.8% 2.8 1.2 9.8 28.4 34.5 20.0 5.2 0.8 0.1
Elite Eight 83.8% 1.4 16.2 41.7 31.7 9.1 1.3 0.1
Final Four 54.7% 0.7 45.3 43.8 10.2 0.6 0.0
Final Game 29.8% 0.3 70.2 28.1 1.6
Champion 14.9% 0.1 85.1 14.9