Wisconsin
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#25
Expected Predictive Rating+21.5#3
Pace65.2#286
Improvement+0.6#151

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#29
First Shot+4.6#48
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#41
Layup/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
Freethrows+3.0#16
Improvement+2.3#59

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot+5.1#37
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#98
Layups/Dunks+1.6#123
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#79
Freethrows+3.4#4
Improvement-1.7#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.2% 7.4% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 19.5% 25.7% 10.4%
Top 4 Seed 64.5% 74.1% 50.5%
Top 6 Seed 91.8% 96.0% 85.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
Average Seed 4.0 3.6 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.7% 97.0%
Conference Champion 28.5% 36.8% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
Second Round74.7% 78.1% 69.7%
Sweet Sixteen36.7% 40.7% 30.8%
Elite Eight13.7% 16.0% 10.3%
Final Four5.1% 5.9% 3.9%
Championship Game1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 27 - 217 - 8
Quad 33 - 019 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-58 98%     1 - 0 +9.4 -0.2 +9.3
  Nov 12, 2021 321   Green Bay W 72-34 98%     2 - 0 +25.3 +0.2 +29.6
  Nov 15, 2021 44   Providence L 58-63 68%     2 - 1 +2.8 -6.3 +8.7
  Nov 22, 2021 60   Texas A&M W 69-58 66%     3 - 1 +19.5 +5.6 +14.5
  Nov 23, 2021 9   Houston W 65-63 32%     4 - 1 +19.5 +7.1 +12.6
  Nov 24, 2021 38   St. Mary's W 61-55 58%     5 - 1 +16.7 +5.6 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2021 125   @ Georgia Tech W 70-66 76%     6 - 1 +9.3 +9.0 +0.6
  Dec 04, 2021 37   Marquette W 89-76 67%     7 - 1 +21.2 +14.4 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2021 27   Indiana W 64-59 60%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +15.1 +4.7 +10.9
  Dec 11, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 55-73 39%     8 - 2 1 - 1 -2.4 -13.1 +11.0
  Dec 15, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 71-68 94%     9 - 2 -2.1 -1.4 -0.6
  Dec 29, 2021 202   Illinois St. W 89-85 OT 93%     10 - 2 -0.2 +10.4 -10.6
  Jan 03, 2022 4   @ Purdue W 74-69 20%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +26.7 +11.7 +15.3
  Jan 06, 2022 21   Iowa W 87-78 58%     12 - 2 3 - 1 +19.7 +14.2 +5.3
  Jan 09, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 70-69 60%     13 - 2 4 - 1 +11.2 +4.2 +7.1
  Jan 13, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 78-68 58%     14 - 2 5 - 1 +20.6 +9.4 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 82-76 57%     15 - 2 6 - 1 +17.0 +12.8 +4.2
  Jan 21, 2022 20   Michigan St. W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 25, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 30, 2022 91   Minnesota W 72-63 82%    
  Feb 02, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 05, 2022 56   Penn St. W 67-61 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 64   Rutgers W 68-61 76%    
  Feb 15, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 66-68 40%    
  Feb 20, 2022 24   Michigan W 69-67 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 64   @ Rutgers W 65-63 56%    
  Mar 01, 2022 4   Purdue L 69-73 38%    
  Mar 06, 2022 140   Nebraska W 80-66 90%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.0 8.1 9.8 5.3 1.7 0.2 28.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.2 9.5 8.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 8.2 6.6 1.1 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.2 5.4 1.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.5 7.1 13.0 18.2 20.2 17.3 11.9 5.5 1.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.8% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 96.0% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 82.0% 9.8    6.2 3.3 0.3
15-5 46.9% 8.1    3.0 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.0% 3.0    0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.5% 28.5 16.0 8.8 2.9 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 1.9 1.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 100.0%
16-4 11.9% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 2.4 1.6 5.2 4.1 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.3% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.0 0.7 3.9 7.8 4.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-6 20.2% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.7 0.1 1.4 6.9 7.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 18.2% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.5 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.3 6.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.0% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 5.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.0 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 7.1% 99.8% 1.9% 97.9% 6.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 3.5% 99.8% 0.8% 99.0% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-11 1.0% 92.7% 92.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.7%
8-12 0.3% 74.8% 74.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 74.8%
7-13 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 10.0%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 8.1% 91.6% 4.0 5.2 14.2 23.2 21.8 17.1 10.3 4.7 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 65.0 35.0