Purdue
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#4
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#5
Pace67.0#230
Improvement-2.0#265

Offense
Total Offense+13.6#2
First Shot+9.1#6
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#3
Layup/Dunks+4.4#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#47
Freethrows+3.1#15
Improvement-2.2#303

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#46
First Shot+4.4#51
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#76
Layups/Dunks+6.2#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#303
Freethrows+3.3#8
Improvement+0.2#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.3% 15.5% 6.9%
#1 Seed 41.4% 49.1% 27.9%
Top 2 Seed 72.0% 79.6% 59.0%
Top 4 Seed 95.7% 97.8% 92.0%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.8% 98.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.1 1.8 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 29.7% 37.3% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.4% 96.5% 93.4%
Sweet Sixteen73.1% 74.6% 70.3%
Elite Eight48.0% 50.4% 43.9%
Final Four28.4% 30.4% 24.9%
Championship Game16.2% 17.6% 13.6%
National Champion9.0% 10.0% 7.4%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 5
Quad 26 - 117 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 96-67 97%     1 - 0 +25.1 +23.1 +3.4
  Nov 12, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 92-67 97%     2 - 0 +22.4 +15.6 +5.8
  Nov 16, 2021 206   Wright St. W 96-52 98%     3 - 0 +39.5 +12.0 +24.7
  Nov 20, 2021 34   North Carolina W 93-84 77%     4 - 0 +20.5 +15.8 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2021 6   Villanova W 80-74 55%     5 - 0 +23.9 +28.4 -3.6
  Nov 26, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 97-40 99%     6 - 0 +42.5 +19.6 +25.7
  Nov 30, 2021 42   Florida St. W 93-65 86%     7 - 0 +35.8 +27.1 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2021 21   Iowa W 77-70 79%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +17.7 -0.7 +17.8
  Dec 09, 2021 64   @ Rutgers L 68-70 79%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +8.7 +8.9 -0.4
  Dec 12, 2021 97   North Carolina St. W 82-72 OT 89%     9 - 1 +15.8 +3.8 +11.3
  Dec 18, 2021 118   Butler W 77-48 92%     10 - 1 +32.5 +23.8 +14.6
  Dec 20, 2021 353   Incarnate Word W 79-59 99.7%    11 - 1 +1.9 +4.3 -0.5
  Dec 29, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 104-90 98%     12 - 1 +8.9 +23.9 -15.6
  Jan 03, 2022 25   Wisconsin L 69-74 80%     12 - 2 1 - 2 +5.2 +4.3 +0.6
  Jan 08, 2022 56   @ Penn St. W 74-67 77%     13 - 2 2 - 2 +18.4 +16.6 +2.7
  Jan 14, 2022 140   Nebraska W 92-65 96%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +26.0 +14.5 +10.4
  Jan 17, 2022 11   @ Illinois W 96-88 2OT 50%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +27.2 +14.3 +11.5
  Jan 20, 2022 27   @ Indiana W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 23, 2022 59   Northwestern W 81-68 90%    
  Jan 27, 2022 21   @ Iowa W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 30, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 02, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 24   Michigan W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 10, 2022 11   Illinois W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 13, 2022 70   Maryland W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 16, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 20, 2022 64   Rutgers W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 01, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin W 73-69 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 27   Indiana W 76-67 81%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.8 10.5 10.7 4.3 29.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 10.9 9.0 2.6 0.2 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.9 6.7 1.7 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.0 1.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.0 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 5.9 11.4 17.8 22.5 21.1 13.4 4.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 96.6% 4.3    3.8 0.6
16-4 80.0% 10.7    6.9 3.5 0.3
15-5 49.6% 10.5    3.8 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 16.7% 3.8    0.6 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 15.1 10.4 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.1 4.0 0.5 100.0%
16-4 13.4% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.2 11.1 2.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 21.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.4 13.6 6.9 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-6 22.5% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.8 8.9 10.2 3.1 0.3 100.0%
13-7 17.8% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.3 3.1 7.5 5.6 1.4 0.1 100.0%
12-8 11.4% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 0.6 2.9 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 5.9% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.8 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.2% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 4.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.9% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
8-12 0.3% 98.4% 4.7% 93.8% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
7-13 0.1% 81.5% 81.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.5%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2.1 41.4 30.7 16.5 7.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 83.2 16.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 87.6 12.4