Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#56
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#77
Pace60.3#345
Improvement+5.3#14

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#72
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#94
Layup/Dunks+0.1#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows-0.8#250
Improvement+1.9#73

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#60
First Shot+2.7#84
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#31
Layups/Dunks+3.6#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#295
Freethrows+3.6#2
Improvement+3.3#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 4.6% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 32.2% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 31.3% 11.0%
Average Seed 9.3 8.9 9.7
.500 or above 43.9% 66.7% 36.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 42.6% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four4.3% 6.0% 3.7%
First Round14.6% 29.0% 9.9%
Second Round6.8% 14.2% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 4.2% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 33 - 110 - 15
Quad 43 - 014 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 250   Youngstown St. W 75-59 92%     1 - 0 +8.8 +5.5 +5.1
  Nov 15, 2021 154   @ Massachusetts L 56-81 71%     1 - 1 -22.0 -16.4 -7.4
  Nov 18, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-59 97%     2 - 1 +1.4 -0.6 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2021 229   Cornell W 85-74 91%     3 - 1 +5.1 +4.6 +0.1
  Nov 26, 2021 13   LSU L 63-68 OT 23%     3 - 2 +11.6 +5.2 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2021 124   Oregon St. W 60-45 72%     4 - 2 +17.9 +2.4 +19.3
  Dec 01, 2021 58   Miami (FL) L 58-63 61%     4 - 3 +1.1 -8.8 +9.3
  Dec 05, 2021 22   Ohio St. L 64-76 43%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -1.4 -2.7 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2021 127   Wagner W 74-54 80%     5 - 4 +20.0 +5.4 +15.7
  Dec 11, 2021 20   @ Michigan St. L 64-80 25%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -0.2 +2.8 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2022 27   Indiana W 61-58 45%     6 - 5 1 - 2 +13.1 +6.1 +7.5
  Jan 05, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 74-70 42%     7 - 5 2 - 2 +15.0 +9.5 +5.8
  Jan 08, 2022 4   Purdue L 67-74 23%     7 - 6 2 - 3 +9.7 +6.9 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2022 64   Rutgers W 66-49 62%     8 - 6 3 - 3 +22.7 +4.1 +19.8
  Jan 16, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 56-61 26%     8 - 7 3 - 4 +10.6 -3.8 +13.7
  Jan 22, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 68-75 24%    
  Jan 26, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 60-66 26%    
  Jan 31, 2022 21   Iowa L 70-72 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 61-67 26%    
  Feb 08, 2022 24   Michigan L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 64-63 48%    
  Feb 15, 2022 20   Michigan St. L 64-66 45%    
  Feb 21, 2022 70   @ Maryland L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 25, 2022 59   Northwestern W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 28, 2022 140   Nebraska W 74-64 84%    
  Mar 03, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 62-72 16%    
  Mar 06, 2022 64   @ Rutgers L 60-62 41%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.7 0.4 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 4.9 1.3 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 7.0 3.3 0.2 12.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 8.0 6.1 0.8 16.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 7.4 8.0 1.5 0.0 18.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.2 7.0 2.1 0.1 15.5 11th
12th 0.5 3.0 4.6 1.8 0.1 10.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.9 6.2 12.6 18.2 20.3 17.7 12.4 6.7 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 70.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 9.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.8% 98.5% 2.6% 95.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4%
12-8 2.7% 97.0% 6.3% 90.8% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.8%
11-9 6.7% 79.9% 2.2% 77.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 79.5%
10-10 12.4% 44.3% 1.6% 42.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.1 6.9 43.4%
9-11 17.7% 10.5% 1.1% 9.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 15.9 9.5%
8-12 20.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 20.1 0.7%
7-13 18.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1
6-14 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5
5-15 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 6.2
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 1.0% 15.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.3 15.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%