Iowa
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#21
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#42
Pace74.8#54
Improvement-2.1#267

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#6
First Shot+8.6#8
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#42
Layup/Dunks+7.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows+1.6#69
Improvement-4.2#349

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#100
First Shot+3.6#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#282
Layups/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#142
Freethrows+2.4#34
Improvement+2.2#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.3% 11.3% 3.4%
Top 6 Seed 29.8% 34.1% 16.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.3% 81.4% 64.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.7% 80.0% 63.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.1 8.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 82.5% 57.1%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.6% 5.2% 6.7%
First Round74.9% 79.2% 61.6%
Second Round47.1% 50.6% 36.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.1% 22.2% 13.6%
Elite Eight8.5% 9.3% 6.1%
Final Four3.5% 3.8% 2.5%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 1.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 26 - 110 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 187   Longwood W 106-73 93%     1 - 0 +29.5 +24.8 +2.5
  Nov 12, 2021 265   UMKC W 89-57 96%     2 - 0 +24.0 +12.3 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2021 327   NC Central W 86-69 98%     3 - 0 +3.5 +7.1 -3.9
  Nov 18, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 108-82 99%     4 - 0 +11.3 +23.9 -13.9
  Nov 22, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 109-61 98%     5 - 0 +36.2 +17.0 +14.2
  Nov 26, 2021 274   Portland St. W 85-51 97%     6 - 0 +25.1 +3.6 +18.9
  Nov 29, 2021 67   @ Virginia W 75-74 60%     7 - 0 +11.5 +26.3 -14.6
  Dec 03, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 70-77 21%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +14.7 -1.5 +16.8
  Dec 06, 2021 11   Illinois L 83-87 46%     7 - 2 0 - 2 +10.2 +13.0 -2.6
  Dec 09, 2021 36   @ Iowa St. L 53-73 48%     7 - 3 -6.2 -6.5 -1.0
  Dec 18, 2021 73   Utah St. W 94-75 71%     8 - 3 +26.5 +19.9 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 93-62 98%     9 - 3 +20.2 +3.5 +13.4
  Dec 29, 2021 213   Western Illinois W 92-71 94%     10 - 3 +16.2 +12.2 +3.2
  Jan 03, 2022 70   Maryland W 80-75 78%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +10.2 +15.4 -4.8
  Jan 06, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 78-87 42%     11 - 4 1 - 3 +6.3 +11.4 -5.0
  Jan 13, 2022 27   Indiana W 83-74 62%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +19.1 +14.3 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 81-71 66%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +18.8 +14.2 +4.9
  Jan 19, 2022 64   @ Rutgers L 46-48 60%     13 - 5 3 - 4 +8.7 -16.7 +25.3
  Jan 22, 2022 56   Penn St. W 75-68 76%    
  Jan 27, 2022 4   Purdue L 78-82 39%    
  Jan 31, 2022 56   @ Penn St. W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 77-79 40%    
  Feb 06, 2022 91   Minnesota W 80-71 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 13, 2022 140   Nebraska W 89-75 92%    
  Feb 17, 2022 24   Michigan W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 22, 2022 20   Michigan St. W 79-77 61%    
  Feb 25, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 87-78 79%    
  Feb 28, 2022 59   Northwestern W 82-75 76%    
  Mar 03, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 75-77 40%    
  Mar 06, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 76-82 28%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.2 0.2 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.1 4.7 0.5 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.1 7.4 1.3 0.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.7 8.3 2.7 0.1 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 7.7 3.6 0.3 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.8 12.6 17.9 19.9 18.3 12.2 6.0 1.7 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 69.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 43.6% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.5% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.7% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.0% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 4.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.2% 99.7% 12.1% 87.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 18.3% 98.1% 8.1% 90.0% 6.7 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.9%
11-9 19.9% 92.6% 5.0% 87.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.7 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.5 92.2%
10-10 17.9% 76.9% 3.4% 73.4% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.1 76.0%
9-11 12.6% 45.1% 2.3% 42.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 43.8%
8-12 6.8% 16.4% 1.2% 15.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 5.7 15.3%
7-13 2.9% 3.3% 0.5% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 2.9%
6-14 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5%
5-15 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.3% 6.2% 71.0% 7.3 0.2 0.7 2.8 5.6 8.7 11.7 12.4 11.2 8.3 7.0 6.0 2.5 0.1 0.0 22.7 75.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 2.6 42.1 47.4 7.9