Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#24
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#78
Pace65.4#278
Improvement-2.1#270

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#22
First Shot+4.7#45
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#15
Layup/Dunks+5.3#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#230
Freethrows-1.1#269
Improvement+1.2#99

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#56
First Shot+3.6#66
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#64
Layups/Dunks+5.2#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#115
Freethrows+2.5#30
Improvement-3.3#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 8.6% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 24.4% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.9% 63.2% 36.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% 60.6% 33.6%
Average Seed 8.0 7.5 8.5
.500 or above 67.3% 81.4% 57.9%
.500 or above in Conference 35.2% 51.3% 24.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four7.7% 8.0% 7.5%
First Round44.1% 60.3% 33.3%
Second Round27.6% 38.7% 20.2%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 17.3% 8.1%
Elite Eight5.1% 7.4% 3.6%
Final Four2.1% 3.1% 1.4%
Championship Game0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 43 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 103   Buffalo W 88-76 84%     1 - 0 +14.0 +10.7 +2.8
  Nov 13, 2021 303   Prairie View W 77-49 96%     2 - 0 +19.7 -4.9 +23.3
  Nov 16, 2021 23   Seton Hall L 65-67 59%     2 - 1 +8.4 -1.9 +10.3
  Nov 19, 2021 108   UNLV W 74-61 79%     3 - 1 +17.3 +8.3 +9.8
  Nov 21, 2021 2   Arizona L 62-80 26%     3 - 2 +1.4 -1.5 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 65-54 92%     4 - 2 +8.1 +0.2 +9.1
  Dec 01, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 51-72 45%     4 - 3 -7.0 -12.8 +4.0
  Dec 04, 2021 33   San Diego St. W 72-58 65%     5 - 3 +23.0 +9.7 +13.6
  Dec 07, 2021 140   @ Nebraska W 102-67 80%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +39.0 +20.5 +14.9
  Dec 11, 2021 91   Minnesota L 65-75 80%     6 - 4 1 - 1 -6.2 +0.6 -7.8
  Dec 18, 2021 142   Southern Utah W 87-50 90%     7 - 4 +35.7 +14.1 +22.3
  Dec 30, 2021 81   @ Central Florida L 71-85 62%     7 - 5 -4.4 +7.6 -12.9
  Jan 04, 2022 64   @ Rutgers L 67-75 58%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +2.7 +6.1 -3.9
  Jan 14, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 53-68 27%     7 - 7 1 - 3 +4.2 -5.5 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2022 70   Maryland W 83-64 77%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +24.2 +22.5 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 67-69 40%    
  Jan 26, 2022 59   Northwestern W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 01, 2022 140   Nebraska W 81-67 91%    
  Feb 05, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 68-77 19%    
  Feb 08, 2022 56   @ Penn St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 75-78 37%    
  Feb 20, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 67-69 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 64   Rutgers W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 27, 2022 11   Illinois L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 03, 2022 21   Iowa W 77-75 60%    
  Mar 06, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 69-72 38%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 1.8 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.2 0.6 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 6.4 1.7 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 7.9 4.6 0.3 15.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 8.1 6.6 1.0 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.8 6.3 1.4 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.9 1.5 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.3 1.0 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 8.2 13.7 18.5 19.3 16.4 10.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 62.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 21.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.2% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.3% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 5.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 10.7% 98.8% 8.7% 90.1% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-10 16.4% 89.4% 5.0% 84.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 1.7 88.9%
9-11 19.3% 55.7% 4.7% 51.0% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 53.5%
8-12 18.5% 13.3% 2.7% 10.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.0 10.9%
7-13 13.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.4 0.7%
6-14 8.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0%
5-15 3.8% 0.6% 0.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
4-16 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 46.9% 4.8% 42.1% 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 5.7 6.0 5.8 4.8 5.0 5.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 53.1 44.2%