Northwestern
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#59
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#102
Pace69.7#149
Improvement-2.6#291

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#41
First Shot+3.3#81
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#37
Layup/Dunks-0.4#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#86
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement-1.1#245

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#91
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#13
Layups/Dunks+6.3#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#333
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement-1.5#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 22.8% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.6% 21.4% 6.1%
Average Seed 9.7 9.2 9.9
.500 or above 38.8% 65.7% 35.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 34.9% 11.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 0.9% 4.1%
First Four2.4% 4.8% 2.1%
First Round7.2% 20.1% 5.8%
Second Round3.5% 10.6% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 3.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 22 - 36 - 14
Quad 32 - 18 - 16
Quad 46 - 014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 80-56 98%     1 - 0 +6.0 +0.8 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2021 275   High Point W 95-60 94%     2 - 0 +26.0 +23.4 +4.3
  Nov 16, 2021 281   New Orleans W 83-67 94%     3 - 0 +6.5 +7.6 -0.7
  Nov 18, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-46 97%     4 - 0 +21.3 -1.6 +21.6
  Nov 22, 2021 44   Providence L 72-77 43%     4 - 1 +5.3 +9.8 -4.8
  Nov 23, 2021 201   Georgia W 78-62 83%     5 - 1 +14.4 -0.4 +14.3
  Nov 30, 2021 49   @ Wake Forest L 73-77 OT 35%     5 - 2 +8.4 +2.4 +6.2
  Dec 05, 2021 70   @ Maryland W 67-61 43%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +16.2 -4.0 +19.9
  Dec 12, 2021 305   NJIT W 70-52 95%     7 - 2 +7.2 -3.3 +11.2
  Jan 02, 2022 20   Michigan St. L 67-73 41%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +4.8 -3.0 +8.1
  Jan 05, 2022 56   Penn St. L 70-74 58%     7 - 4 1 - 2 +2.3 +4.6 -2.5
  Jan 09, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 87-95 25%     7 - 5 1 - 3 +7.6 +18.1 -10.4
  Jan 12, 2022 70   Maryland L 87-94 2OT 63%     7 - 6 1 - 4 -1.8 +3.5 -4.2
  Jan 15, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. W 64-62 24%     8 - 6 2 - 4 +17.8 +2.6 +15.3
  Jan 18, 2022 25   Wisconsin L 76-82 43%     8 - 7 2 - 5 +4.2 +7.3 -3.0
  Jan 23, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 68-81 10%    
  Jan 26, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 11   Illinois L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 01, 2022 64   Rutgers W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 79-74 65%    
  Feb 08, 2022 27   Indiana L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 13, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 16, 2022 4   Purdue L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 91   @ Minnesota L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 22, 2022 140   Nebraska W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 25, 2022 56   @ Penn St. L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 28, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 75-82 24%    
  Mar 06, 2022 91   Minnesota W 73-68 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.4 2.3 0.1 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.8 5.1 0.6 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 7.8 7.5 1.7 0.0 18.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 7.2 7.9 2.3 0.1 19.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 4.7 6.5 2.2 0.2 14.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.5 10.2 17.0 19.7 18.8 14.4 8.4 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.3% 94.6% 5.9% 88.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 94.2%
11-9 3.8% 67.1% 3.1% 64.0% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 66.0%
10-10 8.4% 34.5% 2.2% 32.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 5.5 33.0%
9-11 14.4% 6.8% 1.0% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.5 5.8%
8-12 18.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.6%
7-13 19.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 19.6 0.0%
6-14 17.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9
5-15 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.2
4-16 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.5
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 0.9% 7.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.6 7.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%