Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#20
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#12
Pace70.7#122
Improvement-3.0#302

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#35
First Shot+4.6#46
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#72
Layup/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows+2.1#41
Improvement-0.4#206

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#21
First Shot+7.0#15
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#160
Layups/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#64
Freethrows+1.8#65
Improvement-2.5#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.9% 5.0% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 10.7% 17.6% 6.0%
Top 4 Seed 42.7% 57.0% 32.8%
Top 6 Seed 73.9% 85.8% 65.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.3% 99.1% 94.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 99.0% 94.0%
Average Seed 5.1 4.4 5.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 94.0% 79.8%
Conference Champion 8.8% 15.4% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 0.5% 2.6%
First Round95.4% 98.9% 93.0%
Second Round67.7% 74.7% 62.7%
Sweet Sixteen33.3% 39.9% 28.7%
Elite Eight13.3% 16.9% 10.8%
Final Four5.2% 6.8% 4.1%
Championship Game1.9% 2.6% 1.3%
National Champion0.7% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 27 - 115 - 10
Quad 34 - 118 - 10
Quad 43 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 7   Kansas L 74-87 33%     0 - 1 +4.9 +1.1 +4.9
  Nov 12, 2021 315   Western Michigan W 90-46 98%     1 - 1 +32.2 +7.4 +23.9
  Nov 17, 2021 118   @ Butler W 73-52 76%     2 - 1 +27.0 +6.4 +20.9
  Nov 20, 2021 263   Eastern Michigan W 83-59 97%     3 - 1 +16.0 +0.9 +12.9
  Nov 24, 2021 28   Loyola Chicago W 63-61 54%     4 - 1 +14.3 -3.3 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2021 18   Connecticut W 64-60 48%     5 - 1 +17.8 -1.6 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2021 5   Baylor L 58-75 30%     5 - 2 +1.9 -1.4 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2021 86   Louisville W 73-64 81%     6 - 2 +13.1 +2.6 +10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 88   Toledo W 81-68 81%     7 - 2 +17.0 +3.3 +12.8
  Dec 08, 2021 91   @ Minnesota W 75-67 67%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +16.8 +12.1 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2021 56   Penn St. W 80-64 75%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +22.3 +14.7 +8.4
  Dec 21, 2021 105   Oakland W 90-78 80%     10 - 2 +16.5 +25.8 -8.4
  Dec 29, 2021 275   High Point W 81-68 97%     11 - 2 +4.0 +10.5 -5.6
  Jan 02, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 73-67 59%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +17.0 +1.0 +15.8
  Jan 05, 2022 140   Nebraska W 79-67 90%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +11.0 +1.4 +9.0
  Jan 12, 2022 91   Minnesota W 71-69 81%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +5.8 +5.6 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2022 59   Northwestern L 62-64 76%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +4.0 -6.2 +10.1
  Jan 21, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 25, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 69-75 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 24   Michigan W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 64   @ Rutgers W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 08, 2022 25   Wisconsin W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 27   Indiana W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 15, 2022 56   @ Penn St. W 66-64 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 11   Illinois L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 22, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 77-79 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 4   Purdue L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 03, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 70-72 40%    
  Mar 06, 2022 70   Maryland W 73-65 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 5.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.4 3.4 0.3 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.7 5.3 0.7 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.9 6.8 1.3 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.4 3.5 6.7 2.3 0.1 12.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.7 2.9 0.2 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.8 0.4 7.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.4 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.1 8.4 13.2 17.6 18.2 15.9 11.2 6.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 98.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-4 90.5% 2.2    1.5 0.6 0.0
15-5 58.0% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.8% 1.9    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.4% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 1.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.5% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.3 1.1 2.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.2% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.1 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.9% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 3.8 0.2 1.0 4.9 5.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.2% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 4.7 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.3 6.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 17.6% 99.9% 3.8% 96.1% 5.7 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.0 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 13.2% 99.0% 2.6% 96.4% 6.8 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.6 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-11 8.4% 93.6% 1.6% 92.0% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.5%
8-12 4.1% 65.0% 1.1% 63.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.4 64.6%
7-13 1.4% 20.0% 1.4% 18.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 18.9%
6-14 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.7%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.3% 7.1% 89.3% 5.1 2.9 7.8 15.1 17.0 17.0 14.2 9.2 5.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.7 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0