Indiana
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#27
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#45
Pace68.4#185
Improvement+0.3#170

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#57
First Shot+4.3#55
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#171
Layup/Dunks+6.1#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows+1.9#52
Improvement+1.2#104

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#12
First Shot+4.8#44
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#10
Layups/Dunks+3.9#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows-0.9#258
Improvement-0.8#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 12.6% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 24.4% 37.5% 16.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.4% 86.9% 63.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.7% 85.8% 62.3%
Average Seed 7.5 6.9 8.0
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 89.2% 68.0%
Conference Champion 3.3% 7.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.4% 3.5% 6.5%
First Round70.0% 85.2% 61.2%
Second Round42.4% 54.3% 35.5%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 23.4% 13.3%
Elite Eight7.0% 9.1% 5.7%
Final Four2.6% 3.4% 2.2%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 014 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 263   Eastern Michigan W 68-62 96%     1 - 0 -2.0 -11.7 +9.2
  Nov 12, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 85-49 97%     2 - 0 +25.6 +6.7 +17.2
  Nov 17, 2021 92   St. John's W 76-74 80%     3 - 0 +5.7 +2.0 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2021 165   Louisiana W 76-44 91%     4 - 0 +29.5 -2.7 +29.9
  Nov 23, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 70-35 96%     5 - 0 +26.8 +4.0 +25.9
  Nov 27, 2021 200   Marshall W 90-79 93%     6 - 0 +6.9 +6.1 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2021 61   @ Syracuse L 110-112 2OT 56%     6 - 1 +8.9 +9.4 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2021 140   Nebraska W 68-55 89%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +12.0 -7.8 +19.4
  Dec 08, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin L 59-64 40%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +10.3 -0.4 +10.1
  Dec 12, 2021 289   Merrimack W 81-49 97%     8 - 2 +22.0 +11.7 +12.5
  Dec 18, 2021 65   Notre Dame W 64-56 67%     9 - 2 +16.2 -5.0 +21.4
  Dec 22, 2021 264   Northern Kentucky W 79-61 96%     10 - 2 +10.0 +6.1 +4.9
  Jan 02, 2022 56   @ Penn St. L 58-61 55%     10 - 3 1 - 2 +8.4 +1.9 +6.0
  Jan 06, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 67-51 58%     11 - 3 2 - 2 +26.6 -0.3 +27.4
  Jan 09, 2022 91   Minnesota W 73-60 80%     12 - 3 3 - 2 +16.8 +10.3 +8.0
  Jan 13, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 74-83 38%     12 - 4 3 - 3 +6.7 +2.5 +4.5
  Jan 17, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 78-71 79%     13 - 4 4 - 3 +11.0 +9.5 +1.7
  Jan 20, 2022 4   Purdue L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 23, 2022 24   Michigan W 69-67 60%    
  Jan 26, 2022 56   Penn St. W 66-60 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 11   Illinois L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 71-69 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 15, 2022 25   Wisconsin W 68-66 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 24, 2022 70   Maryland W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 27, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 69-65 61%    
  Mar 02, 2022 64   Rutgers W 67-60 75%    
  Mar 05, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 67-76 19%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.1 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.1 4.2 0.5 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.2 6.8 1.2 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.4 7.8 2.2 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 7.4 3.5 0.3 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.9 12.6 16.8 19.5 17.4 12.2 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 87.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-5 51.7% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.7% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.6% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.2% 99.5% 10.4% 89.1% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.6 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 17.4% 97.3% 6.9% 90.4% 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.2 4.8 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.5 97.1%
11-9 19.5% 88.6% 4.3% 84.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 3.7 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 88.1%
10-10 16.8% 67.4% 2.7% 64.7% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 5.5 66.5%
9-11 12.6% 32.9% 2.3% 30.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 8.5 31.3%
8-12 6.9% 8.5% 1.3% 7.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.3 7.3%
7-13 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.4%
6-14 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.4% 5.7% 66.7% 7.5 0.2 0.5 2.1 4.2 7.5 9.9 11.9 11.7 8.6 7.3 6.0 2.4 0.1 27.6 70.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 22.7 40.9 22.7 13.6