Illinois
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#11
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#28
Pace69.2#165
Improvement+2.7#67

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#7
First Shot+6.9#22
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#9
Layup/Dunks+0.1#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#33
Freethrows+2.1#43
Improvement+0.4#156

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#30
First Shot+8.0#9
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#301
Layups/Dunks+8.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#17
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+2.3#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.5% 0.7%
#1 Seed 10.6% 13.1% 4.3%
Top 2 Seed 27.6% 32.8% 14.7%
Top 4 Seed 69.1% 75.0% 54.4%
Top 6 Seed 90.6% 93.6% 83.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.5% 97.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.4% 97.3%
Average Seed 3.7 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.4%
Conference Champion 47.8% 54.2% 31.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round98.9% 99.5% 97.4%
Second Round85.0% 87.1% 79.7%
Sweet Sixteen55.0% 57.2% 49.3%
Elite Eight28.9% 30.5% 24.8%
Final Four14.3% 15.2% 11.8%
Championship Game6.8% 7.4% 5.2%
National Champion2.9% 3.2% 2.2%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 8
Quad 27 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 44 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 71-47 98%     1 - 0 +15.8 +1.7 +15.0
  Nov 12, 2021 194   Arkansas St. W 92-53 96%     2 - 0 +35.1 +8.8 +23.1
  Nov 15, 2021 37   @ Marquette L 66-67 63%     2 - 1 +12.2 -5.3 +17.6
  Nov 22, 2021 74   Cincinnati L 51-71 81%     2 - 2 -12.6 -13.8 +0.0
  Nov 23, 2021 55   Kansas St. W 72-64 77%     3 - 2 +16.9 +9.3 +7.9
  Nov 26, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 94-85 98%     4 - 2 +0.0 +12.7 -13.0
  Nov 29, 2021 65   Notre Dame W 82-72 85%     5 - 2 +15.6 +16.0 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2021 64   Rutgers W 86-51 85%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +40.7 +19.8 +21.1
  Dec 06, 2021 21   @ Iowa W 87-83 54%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +19.7 +15.3 +4.2
  Dec 11, 2021 2   Arizona L 79-83 49%     7 - 3 +12.9 +9.4 +3.8
  Dec 18, 2021 301   St. Francis (PA) W 106-48 99%     8 - 3 +47.4 +44.2 +11.9
  Dec 22, 2021 126   Missouri W 88-63 90%     9 - 3 +27.6 +15.9 +11.3
  Jan 04, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 76-53 77%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +31.8 +8.5 +23.6
  Jan 06, 2022 70   Maryland W 76-64 86%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +17.2 +12.4 +5.8
  Jan 11, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 81-71 88%     12 - 3 5 - 0 +14.0 +10.0 +4.0
  Jan 14, 2022 24   Michigan W 68-53 73%     13 - 3 6 - 0 +25.3 +7.4 +19.8
  Jan 17, 2022 4   Purdue L 88-96 2OT 50%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +8.7 +4.3 +5.8
  Jan 21, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 20   Michigan St. W 75-69 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 02, 2022 25   Wisconsin W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 27   @ Indiana W 71-69 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 13, 2022 59   Northwestern W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 16, 2022 64   @ Rutgers W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 24, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 27, 2022 24   @ Michigan W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 03, 2022 56   Penn St. W 72-62 84%    
  Mar 06, 2022 21   Iowa W 82-76 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.9 12.0 15.4 10.7 4.4 0.9 47.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.9 8.9 7.2 2.1 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.9 14.0 18.4 20.2 17.5 10.8 4.4 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
18-2 100.0% 4.4    4.4 0.0
17-3 98.7% 10.7    9.7 1.0 0.0
16-4 87.7% 15.4    10.7 4.3 0.4
15-5 59.5% 12.0    4.9 5.3 1.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 21.3% 3.9    0.6 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
13-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 31.2 12.2 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.4% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 1.5 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.8% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.9 3.7 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.5% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.5 2.7 6.1 6.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.2% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 3.3 0.8 3.3 8.1 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 18.4% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 4.1 0.1 0.9 4.6 6.4 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.0% 99.8% 14.6% 85.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 4.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 7.9% 99.6% 10.9% 88.6% 6.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 3.6% 95.2% 6.4% 88.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.9%
10-10 1.5% 76.1% 4.9% 71.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 74.9%
9-11 0.5% 33.1% 1.7% 31.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 31.9%
8-12 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 6.1%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.0% 21.0% 78.0% 3.7 10.6 17.0 22.7 18.8 13.2 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 80.8 19.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 65.9 34.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 21.2 1.0