Maryland
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#99
Pace67.1#227
Improvement+0.5#161

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#78
First Shot+3.3#80
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#146
Layup/Dunks+3.6#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#257
Freethrows+2.7#20
Improvement+2.5#50

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#73
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#235
Layups/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#138
Freethrows+3.0#16
Improvement-2.0#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 13.6% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.4% 13.1% 3.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 24.3% 40.6% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 9.3% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 4.8% 14.4%
First Four2.2% 4.0% 1.5%
First Round5.8% 11.7% 3.4%
Second Round2.5% 5.2% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 16
Quad 33 - 211 - 18
Quad 44 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 241   Quinnipiac W 83-69 91%     1 - 0 +7.1 +1.9 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2021 271   George Washington W 71-64 93%     2 - 0 -1.6 -7.9 +6.0
  Nov 13, 2021 79   Vermont W 68-57 62%     3 - 0 +15.7 +3.3 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2021 123   George Mason L 66-71 76%     3 - 1 -4.6 +0.3 -5.5
  Nov 19, 2021 132   Hofstra W 69-67 78%     4 - 1 +1.7 -7.9 +9.6
  Nov 25, 2021 99   Richmond W 86-80 58%     5 - 1 +11.7 +7.2 +4.0
  Nov 27, 2021 86   Louisville L 55-63 54%     5 - 2 -1.4 -12.5 +11.1
  Dec 01, 2021 32   Virginia Tech L 58-62 45%     5 - 3 +5.1 -5.2 +9.9
  Dec 05, 2021 59   Northwestern L 61-67 57%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +0.0 -13.3 +13.6
  Dec 12, 2021 35   Florida W 70-68 36%     6 - 4 +13.5 +9.1 +4.5
  Dec 28, 2021 294   Lehigh W 76-55 94%     7 - 4 +10.7 -1.2 +11.9
  Dec 30, 2021 181   Brown W 81-67 85%     8 - 4 +10.7 +5.8 +4.5
  Jan 03, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 75-80 22%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +10.7 +11.0 -0.7
  Jan 06, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 64-76 14%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +7.2 +4.4 +1.8
  Jan 09, 2022 25   Wisconsin L 69-70 40%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +9.2 +2.6 +6.6
  Jan 12, 2022 59   @ Northwestern W 94-87 2OT 37%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +18.0 +10.9 +6.1
  Jan 15, 2022 64   Rutgers L 59-70 58%     9 - 8 1 - 5 -5.3 -4.8 -1.1
  Jan 18, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 64-83 23%     9 - 9 1 - 6 -3.7 +4.8 -10.7
  Jan 21, 2022 11   Illinois L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 64   @ Rutgers L 63-66 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 27   Indiana L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 01, 2022 20   Michigan St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 06, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 10, 2022 21   Iowa L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 13, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 18, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 21, 2022 56   Penn St. W 65-64 57%    
  Feb 24, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 64-71 24%    
  Feb 27, 2022 22   Ohio St. L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 91   Minnesota W 70-66 66%    
  Mar 06, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. L 65-73 21%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.6 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.8 1.9 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.5 0.6 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.1 7.1 1.5 0.0 17.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.5 9.4 9.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 25.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 4.9 9.3 6.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 24.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 14th
Total 0.4 2.8 7.3 13.9 18.4 19.9 16.2 11.1 5.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.2% 97.4% 5.2% 92.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
11-9 0.9% 93.6% 1.8% 91.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.5%
10-10 2.8% 75.9% 1.0% 74.9% 9.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.7 75.7%
9-11 5.9% 40.5% 1.4% 39.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.5 39.7%
8-12 11.1% 8.3% 1.1% 7.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.2 7.3%
7-13 16.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 16.0 0.4%
6-14 19.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.8 0.0%
5-15 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 18.4
4-16 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 13.9
3-17 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.3
2-18 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 0.5% 6.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1 6.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%