Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#22
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#23
Pace66.3#257
Improvement-1.1#222

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#18
First Shot+7.6#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#93
Layup/Dunks-0.8#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#46
Freethrows+2.3#31
Improvement-1.9#289

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#66
First Shot+4.0#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#145
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#45
Freethrows-0.1#206
Improvement+0.8#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 4.9% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 26.1% 27.5% 11.7%
Top 6 Seed 59.0% 61.0% 38.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 94.7% 85.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 94.2% 85.1%
Average Seed 5.9 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.3% 83.6%
Conference Champion 12.0% 12.7% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.3% 2.0% 5.2%
First Round93.0% 93.8% 83.5%
Second Round62.2% 63.3% 49.6%
Sweet Sixteen28.0% 28.8% 19.6%
Elite Eight11.3% 11.7% 7.0%
Final Four4.4% 4.6% 2.5%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 0.7%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 152   Akron W 67-66 91%     1 - 0 -0.9 +1.2 -2.0
  Nov 12, 2021 207   Niagara W 84-74 94%     2 - 0 +5.4 +10.5 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2021 182   Bowling Green W 89-58 93%     3 - 0 +27.7 +9.1 +17.7
  Nov 18, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 65-71 38%     3 - 1 +10.3 +1.3 +8.8
  Nov 22, 2021 23   Seton Hall W 79-76 51%     4 - 1 +15.9 +14.5 +1.5
  Nov 24, 2021 35   Florida L 68-71 56%     4 - 2 +8.5 +1.3 +7.2
  Nov 30, 2021 10   Duke W 71-66 44%     5 - 2 +19.5 +3.8 +15.8
  Dec 05, 2021 56   @ Penn St. W 76-64 57%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +23.4 +12.8 +11.1
  Dec 08, 2021 114   Towson W 85-74 86%     7 - 2 +12.6 +18.1 -4.6
  Dec 11, 2021 25   Wisconsin W 73-55 61%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +28.2 +3.7 +24.2
  Jan 02, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 87-79 OT 80%     9 - 2 3 - 0 +12.0 +12.5 -0.8
  Jan 06, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 51-67 42%     9 - 3 3 - 1 -0.9 -10.7 +9.2
  Jan 09, 2022 59   Northwestern W 95-87 75%     10 - 3 4 - 1 +14.0 +22.0 -8.1
  Jan 13, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 68-78 42%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +5.3 +3.3 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2022 56   Penn St. W 61-56 74%     11 - 4 5 - 2 +11.3 -0.2 +12.2
  Jan 18, 2022 355   IUPUI W 83-37 99%     12 - 4 +26.0 +17.2 +17.1
  Jan 22, 2022 140   Nebraska W 82-68 92%    
  Jan 27, 2022 91   @ Minnesota W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 30, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 03, 2022 21   Iowa W 79-77 60%    
  Feb 06, 2022 70   Maryland W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 64   @ Rutgers W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 15, 2022 91   Minnesota W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 27   Indiana W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 24, 2022 11   @ Illinois L 70-76 27%    
  Feb 27, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 03, 2022 20   Michigan St. W 72-70 60%    
  Mar 06, 2022 24   Michigan W 72-69 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.0 4.8 0.9 0.1 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 7.9 6.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 7.5 7.3 1.4 0.1 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.0 6.2 1.5 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.4 1.7 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.0 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 8.4 14.3 18.2 19.6 16.9 10.4 4.9 1.4 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 94.9% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 79.6% 3.9    2.5 1.3 0.2
15-5 41.4% 4.3    1.2 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.0% 2.0    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 5.2 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.8 0.5 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.4% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.7 0.2 1.0 3.3 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 16.9% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.6 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 5.6 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.6% 99.9% 9.2% 90.7% 5.6 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.9 6.2 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 18.2% 99.2% 5.3% 93.9% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.0 5.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.1%
11-9 14.3% 96.0% 2.9% 93.2% 7.8 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.6 95.9%
10-10 8.4% 81.5% 2.5% 79.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.6 81.0%
9-11 3.9% 44.1% 1.3% 42.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 2.2 43.4%
8-12 1.4% 12.2% 2.5% 9.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 10.0%
7-13 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 0.3 1.9%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.9% 8.3% 85.7% 5.9 1.1 3.4 8.6 13.0 16.4 16.5 13.6 9.3 5.5 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 6.1 93.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 54.2 45.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0