Rutgers
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#64
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#62
Pace66.7#242
Improvement+7.2#4

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#155
First Shot-0.7#203
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#70
Layup/Dunks+2.9#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#278
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement+1.1#106

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#18
First Shot+8.1#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#256
Layups/Dunks+2.1#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#86
Freethrows+1.7#72
Improvement+6.1#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.4% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 35.0% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.2% 34.1% 15.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.3
.500 or above 67.5% 80.6% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 75.7% 48.6%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.8% 6.0% 3.8%
First Round22.3% 31.9% 14.2%
Second Round9.5% 13.6% 6.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.9% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 32 - 111 - 14
Quad 45 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 294   Lehigh W 73-70 OT 95%     1 - 0 -7.3 -14.8 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2021 289   Merrimack W 48-35 94%     2 - 0 +3.0 -16.6 +22.4
  Nov 16, 2021 305   NJIT W 75-61 95%     3 - 0 +3.2 +4.1 +0.1
  Nov 18, 2021 94   @ DePaul L 70-73 49%     3 - 1 +5.5 +6.7 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2021 307   Lafayette L 51-53 95%     3 - 2 -12.9 -25.5 +12.5
  Nov 27, 2021 154   @ Massachusetts L 83-85 69%     3 - 3 +1.0 +7.7 -6.7
  Nov 30, 2021 68   Clemson W 74-64 60%     4 - 3 +15.5 +6.3 +9.7
  Dec 03, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 51-86 15%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -15.8 -13.7 -2.3
  Dec 09, 2021 4   Purdue W 70-68 21%     5 - 4 1 - 1 +18.7 +6.8 +12.0
  Dec 12, 2021 23   @ Seton Hall L 63-77 24%     5 - 5 +1.4 -3.8 +5.5
  Dec 30, 2021 349   Maine W 80-64 98%     6 - 5 -0.9 +5.5 -5.6
  Jan 01, 2022 343   Central Connecticut St. W 79-48 98%     7 - 5 +15.6 -1.8 +17.2
  Jan 04, 2022 24   Michigan W 75-67 42%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +18.3 +9.8 +9.0
  Jan 08, 2022 140   Nebraska W 93-65 81%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +27.0 +19.7 +7.4
  Jan 11, 2022 56   @ Penn St. L 49-66 38%     9 - 6 3 - 2 -5.6 -14.1 +7.2
  Jan 15, 2022 70   @ Maryland W 70-59 42%     10 - 6 4 - 2 +21.2 +6.0 +15.8
  Jan 19, 2022 21   Iowa W 48-46 40%     11 - 6 5 - 2 +12.7 -21.9 +34.7
  Jan 22, 2022 91   @ Minnesota L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 25, 2022 70   Maryland W 66-63 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 59   @ Northwestern L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 20   Michigan St. L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 09, 2022 22   Ohio St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 61-68 24%    
  Feb 16, 2022 11   Illinois L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 20, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 62-76 10%    
  Feb 23, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 62-69 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 25   Wisconsin L 63-65 44%    
  Mar 02, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 60-67 25%    
  Mar 06, 2022 56   Penn St. W 62-60 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.5 0.2 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.1 4.5 0.6 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.4 7.2 1.8 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 8.5 3.6 0.3 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 8.0 5.2 0.7 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.0 0.8 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.4 12.3 17.6 19.7 17.8 12.1 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 75.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 57.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.1% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.2% 98.1% 3.6% 94.5% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
13-7 6.9% 86.5% 3.5% 83.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.9 86.0%
12-8 12.1% 63.0% 1.5% 61.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.5 62.5%
11-9 17.8% 29.3% 0.9% 28.4% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.1 12.6 28.7%
10-10 19.7% 7.1% 0.4% 6.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 18.3 6.7%
9-11 17.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 17.5 0.6%
8-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.0%
7-13 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 2.2% 2.2
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.9% 1.0% 23.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.3 2.4 0.1 0.0 75.1 24.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%