Minnesota
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#91
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#50
Pace66.3#253
Improvement-2.4#283

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#89
First Shot+5.6#36
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#326
Layup/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#180
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement+0.8#128

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#88
First Shot+2.6#87
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#139
Layups/Dunks-1.8#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#30
Freethrows+2.9#20
Improvement-3.2#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 18.9% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.4% 18.6% 7.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 61.3% 74.3% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 5.3% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 8.3% 22.2%
First Four4.0% 5.0% 2.7%
First Round11.2% 15.9% 5.7%
Second Round4.5% 6.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 14
Quad 34 - 110 - 14
Quad 45 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 265   UMKC W 71-56 90%     1 - 0 +7.0 +3.5 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2021 112   Western Kentucky W 73-69 58%     2 - 0 +8.2 +1.8 +6.4
  Nov 14, 2021 144   Princeton W 87-80 2OT 69%     3 - 0 +8.1 -6.0 +12.6
  Nov 19, 2021 261   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-49 90%     4 - 0 +21.2 -2.6 +22.5
  Nov 24, 2021 238   Jacksonville W 55-44 88%     5 - 0 +4.3 -11.3 +16.8
  Nov 30, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 54-53 59%     6 - 0 +5.1 -7.2 +12.4
  Dec 05, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. W 81-76 28%     7 - 0 +17.4 +16.9 +0.8
  Dec 08, 2021 20   Michigan St. L 67-75 33%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +2.8 +5.1 -2.9
  Dec 11, 2021 24   @ Michigan W 75-65 20%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +25.3 +16.0 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2021 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-71 89%     9 - 1 +0.7 -1.4 +1.6
  Dec 22, 2021 321   Green Bay W 72-56 95%     10 - 1 +3.3 +3.3 +2.6
  Jan 04, 2022 11   Illinois L 53-76 23%     10 - 2 1 - 2 -8.8 -13.8 +4.8
  Jan 09, 2022 27   @ Indiana L 60-73 20%     10 - 3 1 - 3 +2.1 +3.3 -2.7
  Jan 12, 2022 20   @ Michigan St. L 69-71 19%     10 - 4 1 - 4 +13.8 +10.0 +3.6
  Jan 16, 2022 21   Iowa L 71-81 34%     10 - 5 1 - 5 +0.7 +0.8 -0.4
  Jan 22, 2022 64   Rutgers W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 27, 2022 22   Ohio St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 30, 2022 25   @ Wisconsin L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 02, 2022 4   Purdue L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 06, 2022 21   @ Iowa L 71-80 18%    
  Feb 09, 2022 140   @ Nebraska W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 56   Penn St. L 63-64 52%    
  Feb 15, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 65-74 18%    
  Feb 19, 2022 59   Northwestern W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 25   Wisconsin L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 27, 2022 27   Indiana L 65-69 39%    
  Mar 02, 2022 70   @ Maryland L 66-70 34%    
  Mar 06, 2022 59   @ Northwestern L 68-73 31%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 6 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.9 0.5 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.5 6.4 1.2 0.0 16.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.5 8.6 8.3 2.4 0.1 23.3 12th
13th 0.1 1.4 6.4 10.1 8.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 29.1 13th
14th 0.7 2.3 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.2 14th
Total 0.8 3.7 9.5 15.0 19.2 18.8 15.2 9.7 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.7% 98.2% 3.0% 95.1% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
10-10 2.4% 93.6% 2.2% 91.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 93.4%
9-11 5.0% 81.4% 0.9% 80.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 81.3%
8-12 9.7% 46.1% 0.5% 45.6% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.0 5.2 45.8%
7-13 15.2% 10.4% 0.1% 10.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 13.7 10.3%
6-14 18.8% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.4 1.7%
5-15 19.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.1 0.2%
4-16 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.9
3-17 9.5% 9.5
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20
Total 100% 13.6% 0.2% 13.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 86.4 13.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%